08/25 – International News Update & Story

Lebanese militant group Hezbollah launched over hundreds of drones and rockets into Israel on Sunday. 

Israel reportedly preemptively  fired around one hundred jets into Lebanon to prevent a larger ongoing attack from Hezbollah. [Reuters]

So far three deaths have been confirmed in Lebanon and one in Israel. 

Both sides have apparently indicated they were happy to avoid further escalation for now, but warned that there could be more strikes to come.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the Iranian-backed proxy group’s barrage, which came as retaliation for the assassination of a senior commander last month, had been completed “as planned”.

Hezbollah claimed to have struck 11 Israeli bases in what it described as the “first phase” of its retaliatory response to the assassination of its military chief, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut by an Israeli air strike on July 30th. The group asserted “total success,” disregarded the Israeli attack, and hinted at the possibility of further retaliation. [The Economist]

However, the terror group would assess the impact of its strikes and “if the result is not enough, then we retain the right to respond another time”, he said.

Israel initiated air strikes before Hezbollah launched its barrage, according to Nasrallah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed these “pre-emptive” strikes thwarted a significantly larger Hezbollah attack, but Nasrallah asserted that they had minimal effect. Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks were aimed at an intelligence base near Tel Aviv, Nasrallah stated. Netanyahu countered that all drones targeting what he described as a strategic site in central Israel were intercepted. [Reuters]

A security source in Lebanon reported that at least 40 Israeli strikes hit various towns in the south of the country, marking one of the heaviest bombardments since the hostilities began in October.

The White House stated that U.S. President Joe Biden was closely monitoring the situation. “We will continue to support Israel’s right to defend itself, and we will keep working towards regional stability,” said National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett. 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was “deeply concerned” about the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah and urged both parties to immediately return to a ceasefire, according to his spokesperson. Egypt and Jordan also issued warnings against further escalation. 

Although the United States was not directly involved in Israel’s strikes on Sunday, it did provide some intelligence regarding incoming Hezbollah attacks, a U.S. official said. [Reuters]

Israel’s foreign minister emphasized that the country is not aiming for a full-scale war, though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cautioned, “This is not the end of the story. We are determined to do everything we can to defend our country … whoever harms us – we harm him.”

Both sides have communicated their desire to avoid further escalation, with the overall sentiment being that the exchange was “done,” according to a couple diplomats. [Reuters] 

A Hezbollah official stated that the group had postponed its retaliation to allow time for ceasefire negotiations and had carefully calibrated its attack to avoid provoking a full-scale war.

Palestinian terror group Hamas announced on Sunday that it rejects the new conditions put forward by Israel in the Gaza ceasefire talks. [Reuters 2]

Months of intermittent talks have failed to reach an agreement to end Israel’s devastating military campaign in Gaza or to secure the release of the remaining hostages taken by Hamas during the militant group’s October 7 attack on Israel.

A key issue in the ongoing talks, mediated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, is the Israeli presence in the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow 14.5 km (nine-mile) strip of land along Gaza’s southern border with Egypt. 

Hamas has accused Israel of reneging on its commitment to withdraw troops from the Corridor and introducing new conditions, including the screening of displaced Palestinians as they return to the more densely populated northern areas of the enclave once the ceasefire begins.

“We will not accept discussions about retractions from what we agreed to on July 2 or any new conditions,” Hamas official Osama Hamdan stated on the group’s Al-Aqsa TV on Sunday. [Reuters 2]

Back in July, Hamas agreed to a U.S. proposal to initiate talks on releasing Israeli hostages, including soldiers and men, 16 days after the first phase of an agreement intended to end the Gaza war, a senior Hamas source informed Reuters.

Opinion: 

This latest rejection of the proposal adds further doubt that the recent U.S.-led breakthroughs in diplomatic talks will be able to actually achieve an end to the conflict in the Middle East. 

With the recent and largest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel on its northern border, coupled with the looming threat of a retaliatory strike from Iran, tensions in the broader conflict between Israel and its regional adversaries have flared up once again.

For about a month now, the entire region has been anticipating the promised retaliation by Hezbollah and Iran for the assassinations of Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, who was killed while attending Iran’s presidential inauguration. 

The delay in this response partly highlights the challenging position Iran faces. While Iran could launch a direct retaliation, a similarly large missile and drone attack on Israel in April was mostly intercepted by Israel and its allies, showing more of Iran’s limitations than the threat it was intending to convey. Repeating such an attempt could further expose Iran’s weaknesses rather than demonstrate its strength. 

On the other hand, if Iran were to plan an even larger direct strike, it could provoke a full-scale war with severe consequences. To deter Iran, the United States has deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Middle East.

Hezbollah’s rocket and drone strikes offer a somewhat safer alternative for Iran, which sponsors the Lebanese militant group. It’s also uncertain whether Hezbollah itself desires a full-scale war with Israel in Lebanon. Hezbollah likely knew that Israeli intelligence would detect its preparations and carry out pre-emptive strikes. 

Both Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, want to maintain their image by punishing Israel, but they, along with Israel, are trying to avoid military actions that could lead to a more significant conflict.

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Israel’s strike was “not the end of the story,” but Israeli officials are keen to stress that they are not looking to escalate the situation further. After a failed direct attack in April, Iran may have reverted to its earlier strategy of using proxies like Hezbollah to fight Israel. If this is the case, it could signal a surprising win for the relatively moderate approach of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, over the hardline generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who have been advocating for severe retaliation. [The Economist]

However, whether a ceasefire in Gaza will ease the broader conflict between Iran, its proxies, and Israel remains uncertain.

There are still many variables at play: the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, the ongoing struggle between reformers and hardliners in Iran, and how long Israel will be willing to endure rocket attacks on its northern border before it becomes fed up and decides to launch a more extensive campaign against Hezbollah to eliminate its massive missile arsenal supplied by Iran. 

The latest rejection of the proposal adds further doubt that the recent U.S.-led breakthroughs in diplomatic talks will be able to actually achieve an end to the conflict in the Middle East. 

With the recent and largest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel on its northern border, coupled with the looming threat of a retaliatory strike from Iran, tensions in the broader conflict between Israel and its regional adversaries have flared up once again. 

Even if the current uptick in hostilities subsides for now, the larger conflict in the region seems far from over.

08/23 – International Economics Piece

The European Commission announced on Tuesday its plan to implement five-year import duties of up to 36% on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), unless Beijing can offer an alternative solution to address concerns over state subsidies. 

Tesla EVs produced in China will be subject to a reduced duty of 9%, reflecting lower levels of Chinese subsidies compared to other manufacturers.

Last month, Brussels imposed provisional tariffs on Chinese EVs, in addition to the existing 10% duty, after determining they were unfairly competing with European counterparts. The Commission has now proposed making these tariffs permanent, with the rates open to review by interested parties until the end of August, and final approval expected from EU member states by October.

The proposed tariffs include 17% for BYD (adjusted from 17.4%), 19.3% for Geely (revised from 19.9%), and 36.3% for SAIC (down from 37.6%). Other Chinese producers that cooperate with Brussels will face a tariff of 21.3%, slightly up from 20.8%, while non-cooperative manufacturers would be hit with the maximum 36.3% duty. [Japan Today] 

Tesla, owned by U.S. billionaire Elon Musk, requested its own duty rate, which has been set at 9% after the Commission determined it benefited from fewer Chinese subsidies than domestic manufacturers. [Japan Today] 

China has strongly opposed these tariffs and has filed an appeal with the World Trade Organization, though Brussels believes its measures comply with WTO rules. The EU remains open to alternative solutions that align with WTO standards but emphasizes that it is up to China to propose them.

China has also hit back in response to these EU tariffs by launching a probe into some European dairy imports. China has used anti-dumping investigations into European agricultural products, most recently pork, as a tit-for-tat response in this prospective trade war. 

The provisional duties, in place since July 5, have been provided as bank guarantees but will be released once the final measures are established. This trade dispute is part of broader tensions between China and the EU concerning trade, technology, and national security.

China’s emergence as a leader in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, fueled by significant state investment, has given its manufacturers a competitive edge. In 2023, Chinese EV exports surged by 70%, reaching $34.1 billion, with nearly 40% of these exports going to the European Union, making it the largest recipient of Chinese EVs. [Japan Today] 

 The EU is now facing the challenge of protecting its automotive industry while managing its complex trade relationship with China.

Opinion: 

The next decade is critical for Europe’s automotive industry, which faces the dual challenge of decarbonizing and contending with strong competition from China.

Pedro Pacheco, vice president of automotive research at Gartner, warns that European automakers must launch competitive products to survive. The European Green Deal, initiated by the previous European Commission, aims to make the EU climate-neutral by 2050, with significant focus on reducing vehicle emissions. Initially, climate change was a top priority, but economic concerns are now generating political resistance. Despite this, the push for all-electric vehicles remains strong, though achieving zero emissions is becoming increasingly difficult. 

The European car industry is a major economic force, representing 7% of GDP and employing 13.8 million people. While Europe has long dominated internal combustion engine (ICE) technology, it lags in battery technology, a critical area for the future of electric vehicles (EVs). European carmakers like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Renault, and Stellantis are struggling to adapt to the shift towards battery-powered vehicles, especially in the face of competition from China, which has become the world’s largest EV market. [Politico]

The EU’s Green Deal includes a law banning the sale of new ICE vehicles by 2035, with milestones to ensure compliance, such as a required 15% emissions reduction by 2025. Failure to meet these targets will result in fines, pushing automakers to sell more EVs. However, EV adoption is slow due to concerns over driving range, infrastructure, and cost. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers, benefiting from lower production costs and advanced technology, are making inroads into the European market.

The EU and U.S. have imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, but these measures may only slightly slow Chinese competition. Some Chinese companies are even setting up operations in Europe to avoid tariffs. In response, European automakers are diversifying their offerings, including hybrid models, which have seen an increase in market share.

Despite the 2035 ban on new ICE cars, existing ICE vehicles will continue to emit CO2 for years to come. Additionally, political opposition to the ban is growing, with calls for exceptions for synthetic and biofuels, potentially allowing new ICE cars to be sold after 2035. Hydrogen-powered vehicles, although discussed as an alternative, have not gained significant traction due to infrastructure challenges and low adoption rates.

Overall, Europe’s car industry faces a tough road ahead, with significant implications for the region’s economy and political landscape. Pacheco notes that European automakers could have performed better if they had prioritized EVs as much as their Chinese competitors.

– P.T.

08/22 – Political Opinion Piece

We are now less than 75 days away from the 2024 presidential election. Following a summer marked by historic political events, the stage is set for the nation to decide between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as the 47th President of the United States.

At this moment, there is a growing likelihood that Donald Trump could face another defeat this November and here are several factors as to whyI think this could be what ultimately culminates the outcome of the presidential election to go against Trump: 

• Campaign Momentum: Trump’s campaign has lost significant momentum, particularly as Kamala Harris launched her campaign with a powerful surge, fueled by hundreds of millions in donations. This financial boost has given her a substantial advantage.

• MAGA’s Polarization: The “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement, once a rallying cry, has become increasingly isolating, characterized by a tone that is often perceived as attacking and negative. A sizable portion of voters neither like Trump nor see him as the most fit candidate for the presidency. However, these same voters might still be swayed to support him to prevent Kamala Harris from assuming office and continuing what they see as a declining direction for the United States.

• Rhetoric and Alienation: Trump’s harsh rhetoric, often laced with insults and attacks, alienates voters who are not die-hard MAGA supporters. To succeed, he needs to soften his approach and broaden his appeal beyond his base.

• Focus on Slander: Trump’s strategy has been heavily reliant on slandering his opponents rather than courting undecided voters. This approach could backfire if he fails to address the concerns of those who are still on the fence.

• Policy Opportunities: Policy issues, particularly those related to border security and national safety, are ripe for the taking. If Trump can address these concerns in a way that reassures single-issue voters, he may be able to regain lost ground.

• Impact of RFK: The loss of percentages to RFK could hurt Trump’s chances, as every vote siphoned away could be crucial in a tight race. As of right now Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has still not ended his election campaign and endorsed Donald Trump in exchange for a promised position in his administration, so this one will be an interesting development to keep an eye on. 

• Media Influence: The media landscape is overwhelmingly powerful, with significant backing for the Democratic campaign. This media advantage, characterized by effective priming, framing, and outreach, has so far worked in favor of Kamala Harris. 

• Polling Worries: Recent polls show troubling trends for Trump in critical battleground states. Even traditionally red states like Nevada and Arizona are now in question, adding to the campaign’s challenges.

• Unfortunate Timing: Trump’s favorability saw a boost following an assassination attempt, but this was quickly overshadowed by Biden stepping down and Kamala Harris stepping in as the Democratic nominee.

• VP Selection Issues: Trump’s choice of JD Vance as his running mate appears to be a misstep. Vance’s low favorability and inability to connect with undecided voters, particularly among younger demographics, have not helped the campaign. There’s a sense that even Trump himself regrets the pick, as Vance comes off as more conservative and, debatably, more eccentric.

With less than two months remaining, the Trump campaign must urgently address these issues if they hope to avoid an election loss that once seemed improbable. Above all, Trump needs to reignite his campaign with new energy, focus on holding rallies, and make a strong push in crucial Midwestern battleground states. The path to the Oval Office runs through these states, and without a renewed effort, the campaign may see its chances slip away.

08/20 – International News Update

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a “bridging proposal” from Washington aimed at resolving disagreements over a ceasefire deal and the release of hostages in Gaza. 

Earlier on Monday, Blinken described the situation as a “decisive moment” and “maybe the last” opportunity to free the hostages and establish a ceasefire. 

The announcement came after an intense 2 1/2-hour meeting with Netanyahu, marking Blinken’s ninth visit to the region since the war began on October 7. Blinken now urges Hamas to follow suit and also accept the proposal at this critical juncture. 

“In a very constructive meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu today, he confirmed to me that Israel supports the bridging proposal,” Blinken told reporters, without saying what the proposal entails. “The next important step is for Hamas to say ‘yes.’” [AP News] 

Netanyahu described his meeting with Blinken as “good and important,” expressing gratitude for the “understanding that the United States has shown toward our vital security interests, along with our joint efforts to secure the release of our hostages.” He also mentioned that efforts are underway to free as many hostages as possible in the initial phase of the ceasefire agreement. [AP News] 

Despite Israel’s acceptance of the U.S.-led proposal, tensions remain high on the ground. Hamas recently announced a return to suicide bombings inside Israel, a threat realized in Tel Aviv on Sunday night. Meanwhile, Israeli military strikes reportedly killed at least 30 Palestinians across Gaza on Monday, adding to the death toll and further complicating the chances of a ceasefire. [Reuters] 

Hamas officials have criticized the U.S. for what they perceive as favoritism towards Israel. 

“When Blinken says that the Israelis agreed and then the Israelis say that there is an updated proposal, this means that the Americans are subject to Israeli pressure and not the other way around. We believe that it is a maneuver that gives the Israelis more time,” said senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan. [Reuters] 

Blinken met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Monday. He is scheduled to continue his diplomatic efforts in Egypt and Qatar, where further ceasefire talks hinge on securing a security mechanism for the Philadelphia Corridor between Egypt and Gaza. The U.S. has suggested an international presence in the area, which could be acceptable if limited to six months, according to Egyptian sources.

As protests continue in Israel, particularly among the families of hostages, the pressure on both sides to reach an agreement is mounting. Demonstrations outside Blinken’s hotel in Tel Aviv saw Israelis holding photos of hostages and demanding an immediate deal, with some appealing directly to U.S. President Biden.

Despite the dire situation, negotiations continue. The proposed ceasefire plan, which is still under discussion, would see Hamas releasing all hostages in exchange for Israel withdrawing its forces from Gaza and releasing Palestinian prisoners. However, disputes remain over Israel’s insistence on maintaining a military presence in key areas, which Hamas views as unacceptable.

In Gaza, there is little optimism about Blinken’s visit. “They are lying just to destroy us more and more,” said Hanan Abu Hamid, a displaced resident of Rafah. “Blinken is useless, his visit will harm the Palestinian people.” [Reuters] 

Opinion: 

This development is seen as a crucial, and perhaps one of the last opportunities for de-escalating the conflict which has plunged Gaza into a humanitarian catastrophe and strained U.S. relations in the Middle East.

The U.S. Secretary of State’s visit comes at a politically charged time, as President Joe Biden faces increasing pressure over his handling of the Gaza conflict, with the Democratic Party’s national convention beginning and pro-Palestinian protests taking place across the U.S. There is growing concern about the impact on Muslim and Arab American voters in key swing states. [Reuters] 

The road to an agreement remains fraught with challenges. Months of on-and-off negotiations have stalled over key issues, including Israel’s insistence on the destruction of Hamas as a military and political entity and Hamas’s demand for a permanent ceasefire. Disagreements also persist regarding Israel’s military presence in Gaza, particularly along the Egypt border, and the specifics of a prisoner exchange deal.

The ongoing conflict continues to destabilize the region, with renewed border skirmishes between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah over the weekend raising fears of a broader escalation yet again. 

Blinken emphasized the importance of avoiding any actions that could derail the fragile peace process or escalate the conflict further, particularly with the involvement of Iran and other regional powers.

As Blinken and other mediators work to finalize an agreement, the coming days will be crucial. However, with deep-seated mistrust and conflicting demands on both sides, the prospect of a peaceful resolution remains uncertain.

– P.T.

08/16 – International News Story

In a recent Reuters survey, Japanese businesses revealed they are more inclined to favor a potential Kamala Harris presidency over a second term for Donald Trump. Respondents’ opinions reflected significant concerns about protectionism and policy unpredictability. 

Japan, a close ally of the United States and deeply affected by its economic policies, is watching the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election closely, especially in light of the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.

The survey, carried out by Nikkei Research between July 31 and August 9, reached 506 Japanese companies, with 243 firms responding. Among them, 43% expressed a preference for Harris, citing a desire for stability and continuity in U.S. policies. In contrast, only 8% preferred Trump, while 46% stated that either candidate would be acceptable, and 3% favored neither. [Reuters] 

A ceramics manufacturer highlighted the potential challenges of another Trump administration, noting that “trade war, economic friction, and security threats” could force a reevaluation of their business strategy. This sentiment was echoed by a chemicals firm official who appreciated the predictability that a Harris administration might offer, suggesting that it would provide “better visibility into the future.”

Japanese companies also expressed concerns about potential changes under a Trump administration, with 34% indicating a need to review their foreign exchange strategies, 28% considering supply chain realignments, and 21% contemplating a reduction in their China operations. [Reuters] 

The survey also shed light on the broader economic relationship between Japan and China, revealing that 13% of Japanese companies are considering reducing their operations in China, regardless of the U.S. election outcome. Economic challenges in China, including a slower-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter and a decline in export growth, are driving these decisions. Companies like Honda Motor and Nippon Steel have already announced cutbacks in their China operations. 

The recent survey also touched on Japan’s foreign exchange market, where 24% of respondents supported recent interventions by Japanese authorities to stabilize the yen, which had reached a 38-year low against the dollar earlier this year. While opinions were mixed on whether the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates to support the yen, 51% of respondents agreed that such a move should only occur in cases of extreme exchange rate fluctuations.

As the yen continues to show volatility, Japanese companies are bracing for a range of possible outcomes by the end of the year. The survey results indicate that 32% of firms expect the yen to trade between 145 to 150 yen per dollar, while 25% predict a firmer range of 140 to 145 yen, and 22% foresee it weakening further to between 150 to 155 yen per dollar.  [Reuters] 

Overall, it seems Japanese businesses are looking to navigate a complex economic landscape influenced by both U.S. and Chinese policies, with many looking for stability and predictability in the face of potential global disruptions. Man or woman that is in the White House come 2025 will serve to influence what this uncertainty holds for Japan and the rest of global markets. 

08/15 – International News Story

In September 2022, the Nord Stream gas pipelines, a critical energy conduit running from Russia to Germany, were rocked by subsea explosions, marking the most significant attack on Germany’s energy infrastructure since World War II. 

The blasts, which crippled three of the four pipelines, sparked international controversy and a flurry of accusations as to who was responsible, with Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and the United Kingdom all being mentioned as potential culprits.

A new development has emerged in the investigation, as German authorities issued a warrant in June for the arrest of Ukrainian diving instructor Vladimir Zhuravlev. [Politico]

Zhuravlev is suspected of orchestrating the attack, which involved chartering a yacht named “Andromeda” and using diving gear to plant explosives near the pipelines under the Baltic Sea, close to the Danish island of Bornholm.

According to reports from German news program Tagesschau, Zhuravlev’s involvement has been a focal point for investigators, who are led to believe that the operation was carried out by a group of Ukrainian citizens. 

The Nord Stream pipelines have been a subject of intense debate and criticism for years, particularly from Ukraine, the United States, and Poland, who argued that Germany’s reliance on Russian gas compromised European energy security. This criticism only intensified following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 

Although Nord Stream 1 had been operational since 2011, and Nord Stream 2 was completed but not yet active, the pipelines became untenable in the geopolitical climate of the time.

Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s firm denial of his country’s involvement—stating, “I would never act that way”—reports have surfaced suggesting that plans to attack the pipelines were in motion as early as 2014. Documents leaked online and reported by The Washington Post indicated that the U.S. had intelligence about a possible Ukrainian plan to target the Baltic Sea gas links three months before the explosions.  [Politico] 

Information is still speculative as some Western and German intelligence officials have expressed doubts about Ukraine’s culpability, suggesting the possibility of a “false flag operation” designed to disguise Russian involvement. This theory has gained traction, particularly in Polish security circles, which have even provided German intelligence with the names of Russian suspects. Yet, German investigators remained unconvinced, opting instead to pursue Zhuravlev as their primary suspect. [Politico] 

Further complicating the case, Denmark and Sweden launched their own investigations into the explosions but ultimately suspended their inquiries without naming any suspects. German authorities, however, pressed forward, eventually identifying Zhuravlev with the help of photos and witness testimonies. 

A warrant for his arrest was transmitted to Poland in June, but by then, Zhuravlev had already fled the country, returning to Ukraine in early July. Polish authorities confirmed that Zhuravlev was not apprehended due to a failure to enter his name into an international law enforcement database. [Politico] 

The case also implicated two additional suspects, Svitlana and Yevhen Uspensky, a married couple who run a diving school in Ukraine and who allegedly employed Zhuravlev. In an interview with POLITICO, Svitlana Uspenska denied any involvement, asserting that she was in Kyiv at the time of the attack and that her diving capabilities were insufficient for such an operation, which required expertise at depths of 70 to 80 meters. Uspenska, now residing in Poland, has threatened to sue German media outlets for defamation.

As the investigation continues, the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines remains shrouded in mystery, with questions about responsibility and motive still unresolved. 

The incident not only underscores the fragility of Europe’s energy infrastructure but also highlights the complexities of the geopolitical landscape in the wake of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

08/14 – International News Update

According to three senior Iranian officials, only a negotiated ceasefire agreement in Gaza might prevent Iran from launching direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. [Reuters]

Iran has pledged a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which occurred during his visit to Tehran late last month, with Tehran holding Israel responsible. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has dispatched warships and a submarine to the Middle East to strengthen Israel’s defenses.

A senior Iranian security official indicated that Iran, along with its allies like Hezbollah, would initiate a direct attack if the Gaza talks collapse or if Iran perceives Israel is stalling negotiations. The sources did not specify how much time Iran would allow for the talks before taking action.

Following the deaths of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, there is heightened concern about a broader Middle East conflict. In recent days, Iran has engaged in intense discussions with Western countries and the U.S. about how to calibrate its response. 

The U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed on Tuesday that Washington is urging allies to help persuade Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described efforts to engage with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, scheduled to begin on Thursday, possibly in Egypt or Qatar.

“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. stated on Friday. However, Iran’s foreign ministry criticized calls for restraint, arguing they “contradict principles of international law.” Neither Iran’s foreign ministry nor the Revolutionary Guards Corps responded to requests for comment. Similarly, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the U.S. State Department did not provide comments. [Reuters]

“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby remarked on Monday. “If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added. [Reuters]

Over the weekend, Hamas expressed doubts about whether the talks would proceed. Israel and Hamas have engaged in several rounds of negotiations in recent months without reaching a final ceasefire agreement.

In Israel, many analysts believe a response is imminent following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.

UPDATE ON TALKS

Hamas has expressed growing doubt in the United States’ capacity to effectively mediate a cease-fire in Gaza. Ahead of scheduled talks, Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, voiced concerns over the U.S. role, emphasizing that the militant group will only engage in discussions centered on the implementation of a proposal previously outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden and backed internationally. [AP News]

The cease-fire proposal, initially labeled by the U.S. as an Israeli initiative, has seen contentious negotiations, with both Hamas and Israel accusing each other of obstructing progress. Central to the discord is Israel’s insistence on maintaining a lasting military presence in key areas of Gaza after any cease-fire—a demand that has recently become public and one that Hamas vehemently opposes.

Hamdan, in an interview with The Associated Press, underscored Hamas’ stance, stating that any further discussions should focus on the practicalities of implementing the cease-fire rather than renegotiating terms. “We have informed the mediators that … any meeting should be based on talking about implementation mechanisms and setting deadlines rather than negotiating something new,” Hamdan declared, adding that Hamas sees no value in participating otherwise. [AP News]

Hamdan accused Israel of bad faith in the negotiations, alleging that Israel’s inconsistent participation and shifting demands have stymied progress. Despite these challenges, Hamdan provided documentation showing Hamas’ attempts to add guarantors like Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations to the cease-fire process—a move consistently rejected by Israel, which insists on sticking to the original mediators: the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar.

The Israeli government, however, disputes Hamas’ narrative. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office recently stated that their requested changes to the cease-fire proposal were merely “clarifications” rather than obstacles, accusing Hamas of being the real impediment to peace by seeking numerous amendments. [AP News]

The conflict’s volatility was highlighted by recent events, including the deaths of key figures in both Hamas and Hezbollah, which have raised fears of a wider regional war. 

Amidst a brief truce in November that saw the release of over 100 Israeli hostages, subsequent cease-fire talks have repeatedly collapsed, leaving around 110 captives still in Gaza, some believed to be dead.

Hamdan accused Israel of intensifying its attacks on Hamas leaders following the group’s tentative agreement to the latest cease-fire proposal from mediators. A notable incident occurred on July 13, when an Israeli operation in Gaza reportedly resulted in the death of Mohammed Deif, the elusive leader of Hamas’ military wing, along with over 90 others, according to local health officials. Despite these reports, Hamdan claimed that Deif is still alive. [AP News]

The situation escalated further two weeks later with the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, an event that both Hamas and Iran attributed to Israeli actions. In response, Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar, its Gaza chief and a key figure in the October 7 attack on Israel, to succeed Haniyeh. This leadership change marks a shift from Haniyeh, who was seen as a more moderate figure, to Sinwar, known for his hardline stance. 

Hamdan acknowledged that there are challenges and delays in maintaining communication with Sinwar, who is believed to be hiding deep within Gaza’s tunnel network. However, he insisted that these difficulties do not significantly hinder the ongoing negotiations.

Israel has expressed concern that Hamas might drag out negotiations indefinitely, using them as a cover to regroup. On the other hand, Hamas fears that Israel could resume hostilities once its most vulnerable hostages are freed.

The prospect of Israel maintaining a military presence in strategic areas of Gaza has further complicated talks. Although Hamas insists on a full Israeli withdrawal, recent reports suggest Israel is pushing for control over key border regions and internal routes, proposals that Hamas has yet to formally acknowledge.

Despite the immense suffering endured by Palestinians, Hamdan was resolute that Hamas would not surrender its demands, asserting, “A cease-fire is one thing, and surrender is something else.” [AP News]

The coming days will determine whether these entrenched positions can be reconciled or if the region will continue its descent into deeper conflict.

08/13 – International News Story & Updates

Ukraine’s forces launched a surprise invasion into Russian territory last week. 

Early morning on August 6, Ukraine launched its unexpected cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, located to the northeast. The raid has been ongoing for six days now, with Russia already ceded control of more than 350 square miles of its territory to Ukrainian troops. [CNN] 

The governor of Kursk, the region under attack by Ukrainian troops, ordered authorities to speed up the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. On Saturday Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, publicly acknowledged the incursion for the first time and said it was bringing “exactly the kind of pressure that is needed—pressure on the aggressor”. The operation is Ukraine’s biggest cross-border incursion since Russia invaded it in 2022. [The Economist] 

Russian authorities began evacuating civilians from parts of Belgorod, a border region, as Ukraine’s army continued its advance into Kursk, a neighboring Russian region. 

By August 8th, Ukrainian forces had advanced to Sudzha, located 10km from the border, and Korenevo, 15km within Russian territory. Intense battles are ongoing in both areas, with reports indicating that smaller Ukrainian units have pushed further into Russian soil. Social media footage reveals the aftermath of these clashes, with destroyed buildings and the bodies of soldiers lying on roads riddled with craters. Videos from the operation’s first day also show a large group of Russian prisoners being led away under armed guard. [The Economist]

Early on Sunday, Kursk officials reported that 13 people were injured when debris from a destroyed Ukrainian missile struck a nine-story residential building in the city. [Reuters]

Around 76,000 residents have fled, prompting Russian authorities to declare a state of emergency in the area. The lack of a well-coordinated evacuation has led to widespread anger. Vladimir Putin described the situation as a major “provocation.” Volodymyr Artiukh, head of Ukraine’s military administration in Sumy, stated that Ukraine’s success served as a “cold shower” for the Russians, adding, “They are now experiencing what we’ve endured for years, since 2014. This is a historical event.” [The Economist 2]

Russian authorities swiftly evacuated residents and implemented a broad security crackdown in three border regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, bolstered its troop presence along its border with Ukraine, accusing Kyiv of airspace violations. [Reuters]

In his video address, Zelenskyy mentioned discussions with top Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, pledging to respond decisively in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. 

“Today, I received several reports from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding the front lines and our actions to push the war onto the aggressor’s territory,” Zelenskyy said late on Saturday. “Ukraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and is ensuring the exact kind of pressure that is needed—pressure on the aggressor.” [Reuters]

Russian President Vladimir Putin held an operational meeting on Monday, where he emphasized the need for his military to “push and drive the enemy out of our territories” and secure the border, as reported by the Kremlin. According to local authorities, Ukraine currently controls 28 settlements in Russia’s Kursk region. [Politico] 

Putin also cast blame onto Western countries who he labels as the masters of Ukraine’s plot to incite cross-border violence and heighten destabilization. 

As of Monday August 12, As many as 180,000 Russian civilians are being evacuated from regions near the border with Ukraine as the Kremlin scrambles to deal with Ukraine’s continued cross-border incursion. [Politico 2] 

According to a Ukrainian official, Russia has withdrawn some troops from southern Ukraine and redeployed them within its own borders to counter an intensifying offensive by Kyiv’s forces. 

“Russia has moved some of its units from the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in southern Ukraine,” said Dmytro Lykhoviy, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian army, in a statement on Tuesday Aug 13. [Politico 3]

Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and currently occupies 18% of Ukrainian land. Prior to the unexpected assault on Russian soil, Ukraine had been steadily losing ground to Russian forces, despite receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in support from the U.S. and Europe intended to halt and potentially reverse the Russian advances. [Reuters 2]

Opinion: 

The Kursk raid has been cloaked in secrecy, catching Western governments off guard. Even a Ukrainian general-staff source near the border admitted to not fully understanding the operation, revealing that troops were ordered to prepare on August 4th without being told their destination. The surprise and silence surrounding the raid are reminiscent of Ukraine’s rapid offensive in Kharkiv province in late 2022. [The Economist]

Unlike previous cross-border raids led mainly by Ukraine’s military intelligence, this operation is closely linked to the new and often criticized commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, with regular army units participating for the first time. The high stakes mean that General Syrsky’s career could be on the line. Reports from Ukrainian hospitals indicate rising casualty numbers, leading some to question the wisdom of committing so many troops to the incursion while other critical frontlines are stretched thin. The operation’s ultimate success will determine whether this strategy was justified

However, this particular incursion into Kursk, following setbacks for Russia in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, marks what some see as the “fourth major failure” of Russian generals in mechanized warfare.

A more realistic goal might be to establish an embarrassing “buffer zone” along the border, similar to Russia’s attempts in Kharkiv over the past few months. This zone could even serve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. 

An intelligence source notes that Russia had been trying to secure a solid position, but now faces a crisis, unable to defend its own territory. [The Economist]

While maintaining any new Ukrainian line within Russian territory would be challenging, it would deliver a symbolic blow to Vladimir Putin. For a nation in desperate need of positive news over the past year, such a development would be significant. 

This marks Kyiv’s most substantial incursion into Russian territory since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Ukrainian incursion marks the most significant breach into Russia since Nazi Germany’s invasion in June 1941, which eventually led to the pivotal Battle of Kursk in 1943. 

The presence of foreign forces on Russian territory serves as a humiliation for both the military and President Putin, especially amidst his reassurances to the Russian population that they would not feel the effects of war since launching the Ukrainian invasion. 

Nearly a week into the operation, it seems to have significantly boosted morale for Ukraine and its Western allies, who seem cautiously supportive of the effort. 

Some elements of Ukraine’s operation seem to have been carefully orchestrated, with operational security providing the critical advantage of surprise. A source from the general staff involved in the operation stated, “We sent our most combat-ready units to the weakest point on their border,” noting that conscripted Russian soldiers faced elite paratroopers and quickly surrendered. [The Economist 2]

The operation does however also show signs of being hastily prepared, as the three soldiers interviewed were pulled from high-pressure front lines in the east with almost no notice.

The ultimate objective of Ukraine’s operation remains uncertain as whether the aim is to advance further toward the city of Kursk, to occupy the territory as leverage in future negotiations, or simply to withdraw after dealing a blow to Vladimir Putin’s image. Ukraine does not appear to be seriously reinforcing its positions, however the combat still flares on and they haven’t shown any signs of retreat just yet. 

At a minimum, the operation seems intended to divert Russian troops away from the heavily contested areas of Kharkiv and Donbas, which are central to the war. Early indications suggest mixed results—while Russia has redeployed some forces from the Kharkiv front, it has moved far fewer from the critical Donbas region.

– P.T.

08/10 – International News Update & Story

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate earlier this week. 

Walz, 60, has been Minnesota’s Democratic Governor since 2018, as well as a U.S. Army National Guard veteran, former schoolteacher and football coach. Walz was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006, representing a Republican-leaning district for 12 years before being elected as Minnesota’s governor in 2018 and re-elected in 2022.

“Tim is a battle-tested leader who has an incredible track record of getting things done for Minnesota families,” Harris told supporters. [Reuters]

Walz has pushed a progressive agenda that includes free school meals, goals for tackling climate change, tax cuts for the middle class and expanded paid leave for workers. [Reuters]

Walz was not very popular or nationally recognized at all until the Democratic race for VP pick kicked off in the past two weeks, and the Governor was ultimately selected over other assumed choices like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. 

Walz gained significant attention in the past couple weeks, in part due to his use of the word “weird” to describe Trump and Vance—an insult that was embraced and adopted by the Harris campaign, quickly spread on social media by Democratic activists. 

Walz has also challenged the middle-class credentials claimed by Trump and Vance. In an MSNBC interview, he remarked, “They talk about the middle class, but a wealthy real estate mogul and a venture capitalist claiming to understand us? They don’t know who we are.” [Reuters]

Harris’ decision to pick Walz was likely  influenced by both electoral strategy and a desire to avoid intra-party disputes. On Tuesday Aug 6, she joined him at a rally in Philadelphia alongside Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who was once a frontrunner for the vice-presidential spot but lost momentum due to criticism of his stance on the Gaza conflict and his support for school vouchers. Unlike Mr. Shapiro, Mr. Walz has seen his popularity rise recently, particularly among the Democratic Party’s left wing. However, Mr. Walz lacks the name recognition in key swing states that Mr. Shapiro might have brought the ticket. [The Economist] 

Minnesota, Mr. Walz’s home state, hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1972, and current polls suggest it isn’t likely to flip in the upcoming election.

Mr. Walz’s appeal lies in his political acumen and personal story. Recently, he has become a vocal advocate for Harris, with his sharp critique of Republicans gaining traction as a broader Democratic talking point. His background contrasts with Harris’s; born in rural Nebraska in 1964, he attended a school where many of his classmates were relatives. Walz spent two decades as a teacher and served in the National Guard for 24 years, retiring as a Command Sergeant Major. A committed hunter, he once held an A rating from the National Rifle Association during his early years in Congress. [The Economist] 

Despite his past positions, which were considered more conservative, Mr. Walz has embraced a progressive agenda as governor, including increased spending on public schools, free school meals, paid family leave, legalized marijuana, expanded background checks for gun buyers, and strengthened abortion rights. 

On foreign policy, Mr. Walz’s views can be traced back to a 2007 speech in which he criticized the Bush administration’s focus on security over diplomacy and emphasized the importance of human rights in American policy. As governor, he signed legislation to divest state investments in Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, although he resisted similar calls regarding Israel.  [The Economist] 

Mr. Walz’s record does have its stains, particularly regarding his response to the Minneapolis riots following the murder of George Floyd in May 2020. The killing of Floyd, a Black man, by a white Minneapolis police officer, who was later convicted of murder, ignited widespread protests and exposed deep racial tensions both in the U.S. and abroad. Critics argue that Walz was slow to act, hesitating to deploy the National Guard to curb the looting, arson, and violence that ensued. This delay became a major point of contention, especially after a police station was set ablaze by protestors. Walz’s handling of this crisis has been a significant source of criticism, particularly from those who believe he did not act swiftly enough to maintain order.

More recently, his administration faced criticism over a massive fraud scheme involving funds intended for child nutrition during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, there are some concerns about his personal life, including a past DUI arrest in 1995, though he was ultimately convicted of reckless driving. [The Economist] 

The choice of Ms Harris at the top of the ticket has changed the race. In our polling average, the Democrats’ candidate is now ahead in the national vote for the first time since October 2023. Yet this election is still very close. That slender national lead, if it is real, would probably translate into something that approaches a 50% chance of winning in the electoral college. When Mr Trump is just a coin-toss away from another four years, a safety-first strategy is not wise.

Opinion:

Walz has labeled himself as an avid hunter and gun owner with deep connections to rural American voters which have in majority staunchly voted for Trump in the past couple elections. 

The Trump campaign has attacked the selection by painting Walz as overly liberal similar to Kamala Harris and emphasizing the fact that their liberal politics are out of touch with a majority of Americans’ values. 

Walz’s straightforward comments and simple form of criticism that plainly labels the Republican leaders as “weird”, appears to connect with their public base more effectively than the sweeping statements of other Trump critics, who up until now relied heavily on a Democratic campaign that primarily depicted the Republican presidential candidate as an existential threat to democracy. 

Tim Walz’s journey to the national political stage is marked by a diverse and unconventional career path, standing out in a field of carefully crafted career politicians and bureaucrats. 

From a geography teacher and lunchroom monitor to a high-school football coach, National Guard reservist, congressman, and state governor, Walz’s background is refreshingly varied. His first foray into politics came in his 40s when he ran for office in a rural Minnesota district that was widely considered unwinnable. A lover of hunting, maps, and small-town humor, Walz is notably the first non-lawyer on the Democratic ticket since 1980.

Harris might have seemingly gone with Walz as her running mate for his vibes, but the choice does hold its own political risks. Walz was the preferred choice of the party’s online left and labor unions, raising concerns that Harris’s decision may reflect a tendency to align with this faction of the party, or that she prioritizes party unity above all else. This could be a concern for her campaign, as winning key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin requires appealing to voters who find the Democrats too left-leaning but are also dissatisfied with Donald Trump. This balancing act was central to Joe Biden’s success in 2020, despite Trump’s perceived eccentricities. On average, Americans still view Democrats as more out of touch than Republicans. [The Economist]

To win over moderates, Harris needs to be more vocal about her opposition to illegal immigration and her independence from special-interest groups, including teachers’ unions.

By selecting Walz, Harris has appeased the left wing of her party, but she will need to do more to ensure broader appeal if she wants to defeat Trump in November. 

– P.T.

08/08 – International News Story

Several British cities experienced widespread unrest and violent protests over the last week. The violence followed the tragic murder of three young girls in the town of Seaport in northwest England, marking the country’s most significant rioting in 13 years. 

Three girls — Bebe King, six, Elsie Dot Stancombe, seven, and Alice Dasilva Aguiar, nine — were fatally stabbed while attending a Taylor Swift-themed dance event. The attack also injured 10 others, some critically.

A 17-year-old male was arrested, and he was later revealed to be born in Cardiff to parents from Rwanda. [Politico]

Riots erupted in various towns and cities involving hundreds of anti-immigration protesters. These protests were fueled by alleged misinformation spread on social media, falsely claiming that the suspect in Monday’s knife attack at a children’s dance class in Southport was a radical Muslim migrant. The police clarified that the suspect, 17-year-old Axel Rudakubana, was born in Britain. Despite this, anti-immigration and anti-Muslim protests continued, leading to violence, arson, and looting. [Reuters] 

From Friday to Sunday, violent demonstrators gathered in city and town centers across the UK, intent on clashing with police and causing chaos. The gatherings, initially anti-immigration marches, were organized through social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), WhatsApp, and Telegram, quickly escalating into disorder and violence. [CNN] 

The cities of Liverpool, Bristol, Hull, and Belfast saw significant public demonstrations, with clashes between anti-immigration protesters and anti-racism groups. Some confrontations involved young men hurling bricks and bottles, resulting in numerous injuries to police officers attempting to separate the opposing groups.

In Liverpool, two police officers were hospitalized with suspected facial fractures, and another officer was assaulted after being pushed from his motorbike. The city witnessed approximately 750 protesters and an equal number of counter-protesters, according to Merseyside Police, who oversee the northwestern city. Police also reported that at least two shops in Liverpool were vandalized and looted. Similar incidents occurred in Bristol, where anti-racist demonstrators outnumbered anti-immigration protesters. TV footage showed them confronting police in riot gear.

In Belfast, businesses reported property damage, and at least one establishment was set on fire. Rahmi Akyol, a local cafe owner, expressed confusion over why his business was attacked by dozens wielding bottles and chairs. “I’ve lived here for 35 years. My kids, my wife, are from here. I don’t know what to say, it’s terrible,” he said. [Reuters] 

Two Holiday Inn hotels, one in Rotherham, northern England, and another in Tamworth, central England, were set on fire by protesters. Both hotels housed asylum seekers awaiting decisions on their claims. 

According to South Yorkshire Police Assistant Chief Constable Lindsey Butterfield, the Rotherham hotel was “full of terrified residents and staff.” In Tamworth, rioters threw projectiles, smashed windows, and started fires, injuring a police officer, as reported by local authorities. In Rotherham, protesters used wooden planks, fire extinguishers against officers, set fires near the hotel, and smashed windows to enter the building. [CNN] 

Violence also erupted in Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Stoke-on-Trent, and several other cities, predominantly in the Midlands and northern England. The Home Office announced on Sunday that UK mosques were receiving increased security due to these incidents. [CNN] 

On Friday Aug 2, Sunderland witnessed anti-immigration protesters throwing stones at police near a mosque, overturning vehicles, setting a car on fire, and starting a blaze near a police station. Mark Hall, the chief police superintendent of the Sunderland area, described the incident as “unforgivable violence and disorder,” stating that it was not a protest but sheer chaos. More protests were expected on Sunday. [Reuters] 

Police report that nearly 400 individuals have been arrested following six days of riots across parts of England and Northern Ireland. On Monday evening, police in Plymouth faced attacks while trying to separate rival protesters, officers in Belfast were targeted with petrol bombs, and authorities managed unrest in eastern Birmingham. [BBC] 

Just over the weekend, more than 370 individuals were arrested in connection with the violence, and this number is expected to rise as law enforcement continues to identify and apprehend those involved, according to the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), the UK’s national law enforcement body. [CNN] 

Throughout the past week, numerous police officers have sustained injuries, and there has been significant damage to shops, cars, and homes due to the disorder in the UK. 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, facing a significant challenge just a month after his election, condemned the “far-right” for inciting violence and supported the police in taking decisive action. His office reported that he discussed the unrest with senior ministers on Saturday. [Reuters] 

Reform U.K., the populist right-wing party led by Nigel Farage, has publicly condemned the recent riots, distancing itself from the events and criticizing the “levels of violence seen in the last couple of days.” [Politico]

Starmer stated from Downing Street, “People in this country have a right to be safe, yet we’ve seen Muslim communities targeted, attacks on mosques, other minority communities singled out, Nazi salutes in the street, attacks on the police, and wanton violence alongside racist rhetoric.” He added, “I won’t shy away from calling it what it is: Far-right thuggery.” [CNN] 

This crisis has abruptly ended Starmer’s post-election honeymoon, prompting MPs from across the political spectrum to urge him to recall Parliament for a debate on the riots. The Parliament is currently in summer recess, however Starmer’s spokesperson stated that the government is focused on responding to the unrest.

According to PA Media, Parliament has been recalled six times in the past decade, but only once to address a live crisis unrelated to the Covid-19 pandemic—the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban in 2021. 

Tech Platform Outrage

X’s billionaire owner, Elon Musk, provoked outrage in the British government over the weekend by stating that “civil war is inevitable” in response to footage of far-right unrest sweeping the nation. This comment, made on X, drew widespread condemnation from the office of U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which declared there was “no justification” for Musk’s remarks. [Politico]  

intensified tensions on Monday night by challenging the U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s response to recent far-right riots. After Starmer condemned attacks on mosques and Muslim communities, Musk questioned whether the prime minister was ignoring broader issues, asking, “Shouldn’t you be concerned about attacks on all communities?” 

Interior Minister Yvette Cooper expressed numerous concerns about how social media platforms like X handle incitement and disinformation. She emphasized the need for police intervention in criminal matters and urged social media companies to promptly remove criminal content and enforce their terms of service.

Despite widespread concern about far-right messaging, the U.K. has limited means to compel social media companies to act. The recent riots, which targeted mosques and asylum seekers’ accommodations, were heavily influenced by online communications. False information about the killing of three children in Southport last week spread through fake news channels on X. Influential figures like Tommy Robinson and Laurence Fox used platforms such as X, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok to amplify their messages.

WhatsApp and Telegram facilitated the organization of protests, while Facebook was used to distribute flyers, and TikTok shared videos of the violence. X, in particular, has become a hub for far-right discussions, with Musk reinstating Robinson’s account, despite his bans on Instagram and Facebook.

Tech Secretary Peter Kyle acknowledged that social media played a significant role in the riots, stating that these platforms have a responsibility to prevent harmful content and that the government is working closely with them to ensure they meet this obligation. [Politico]  

Response

On Wednesday August 8, following a week of violent anti-migrant protests, thousands of police and anti-racism demonstrators took to the streets across Britain, prepared for far-right groups that ultimately did not appear. [Reuters] 

This followed a week of violent racist attacks aimed at Muslims and migrants. Online posts had suggested that far-right, anti-Muslim protesters would target various immigration centers and law firms, leading to early business closures and boarded-up shops.

In response, large crowds of protesters gathered in cities like London, Bristol, and Birmingham, carrying banners with messages such as “Fight racism” and “Stop the far right.” The protesters included a diverse mix of Muslims, anti-racist groups, trade unionists, and local residents who were outraged by the recent riots that saw violent clashes with police and attacking hotels housing asylum-seekers from regions like Africa and the Middle East, while chanting anti-immigrant slogans. Mosques were also targeted with rocks, prompting safety warnings from Muslim organizations.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, dealing with his first major crisis since taking office, has vowed to take strong action against the rioters, warning that those inciting violence will face severe legal consequences. On Wednesday, several individuals received prison sentences for their involvement in the disorder. Starmer emphasized the government’s commitment to maintaining order and enforcing the law. 

To address potential violence, the government has assembled a “standing army” of 6,000 specialist police officers, and so far, over 120 people have been charged, with 428 arrests made in connection to the unrest. [Reuters]

Opinion: 

Recent violence erupted following a tragic stabbing in Southport, northwest England, where several children were attacked, resulting in the deaths of three young girls. This shocking event has left the nation in awe and fueled many citizens that were already on edge with renewed outrage. Far-right groups exploited the tragedy by spreading information hinting that the suspect was an immigrant, aiming to provoke anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant sentiments. 

Britain has seen a rise in anti-migrant rhetoric in recent years, with some critics suggesting this has emboldened far-right sympathizers, contributing to the recent unrest. An abominable event such as this gruesome stabbing seems like the perfect catalyst for anti-migrant anger from British citizens that has been ready to boil over. 

In the latest general election, Reform UK, a right-wing populist party with a strong anti-immigration stance, garnered the third-highest number of votes. Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, condemned the riots but pointed to broader issues, criticizing previous policing of anti-racism protests and mass migration.

Some Conservative Party members, who have also adopted stricter migration policies over the past 14 years, disagreed with Farage’s remarks. Former Home Secretary Priti Patel, subtly criticizing Farage, stated that violence is never acceptable and that politicians must unequivocally condemn it.

The organization of the riots was facilitated through social media and messaging platforms such as WhatsApp and Telegram, bringing these services into the national debate on addressing violence. Elon Musk’s X platform faced backlash for reinstating far-right figures like Tommy Robinson, who used it to incite protests. Joe Mulhall from Hope Not Hate, a UK-based anti-racism charity, noted that Robinson’s return to X has allowed extremists to spread harmful propaganda widely.

Labour leader Keir Starmer condemned the protesters as “far-right thugs,” a statement that drew online criticism and led to the hashtag #FarRightThugsUnite trending on X. Musk tweeted that “civil war is inevitable” in response to posts blaming the riots on mass migration. The prime minister’s spokesperson later stated that such comments were unjustifiable and that Starmer did not share those sentiments.

Migration has been a highly controversial and debated topic in Britain, especially since the 2016 Brexit referendum. In recent years, the country has experienced unprecedented levels of net migration, driven by newcomers from Ukraine, Hong Kong, and individuals pursuing work or education opportunities. 

In 2023 alone, 29,000 people crossed the Channel in small boats, many escaping war-torn regions. The far-right’s adoption of the “stop the boats” slogan, which was originally used by the Conservative Party, highlights the persistent tensions surrounding immigration.

The recent violent riots sweeping through the UK serve as a stark reminder of the underlying racial tensions in European societies, with migration increasingly emerging as the defining issue of the past decade.

– P.T.