08/20 – International News Update

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a “bridging proposal” from Washington aimed at resolving disagreements over a ceasefire deal and the release of hostages in Gaza. 

Earlier on Monday, Blinken described the situation as a “decisive moment” and “maybe the last” opportunity to free the hostages and establish a ceasefire. 

The announcement came after an intense 2 1/2-hour meeting with Netanyahu, marking Blinken’s ninth visit to the region since the war began on October 7. Blinken now urges Hamas to follow suit and also accept the proposal at this critical juncture. 

“In a very constructive meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu today, he confirmed to me that Israel supports the bridging proposal,” Blinken told reporters, without saying what the proposal entails. “The next important step is for Hamas to say ‘yes.’” [AP News] 

Netanyahu described his meeting with Blinken as “good and important,” expressing gratitude for the “understanding that the United States has shown toward our vital security interests, along with our joint efforts to secure the release of our hostages.” He also mentioned that efforts are underway to free as many hostages as possible in the initial phase of the ceasefire agreement. [AP News] 

Despite Israel’s acceptance of the U.S.-led proposal, tensions remain high on the ground. Hamas recently announced a return to suicide bombings inside Israel, a threat realized in Tel Aviv on Sunday night. Meanwhile, Israeli military strikes reportedly killed at least 30 Palestinians across Gaza on Monday, adding to the death toll and further complicating the chances of a ceasefire. [Reuters] 

Hamas officials have criticized the U.S. for what they perceive as favoritism towards Israel. 

“When Blinken says that the Israelis agreed and then the Israelis say that there is an updated proposal, this means that the Americans are subject to Israeli pressure and not the other way around. We believe that it is a maneuver that gives the Israelis more time,” said senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan. [Reuters] 

Blinken met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Monday. He is scheduled to continue his diplomatic efforts in Egypt and Qatar, where further ceasefire talks hinge on securing a security mechanism for the Philadelphia Corridor between Egypt and Gaza. The U.S. has suggested an international presence in the area, which could be acceptable if limited to six months, according to Egyptian sources.

As protests continue in Israel, particularly among the families of hostages, the pressure on both sides to reach an agreement is mounting. Demonstrations outside Blinken’s hotel in Tel Aviv saw Israelis holding photos of hostages and demanding an immediate deal, with some appealing directly to U.S. President Biden.

Despite the dire situation, negotiations continue. The proposed ceasefire plan, which is still under discussion, would see Hamas releasing all hostages in exchange for Israel withdrawing its forces from Gaza and releasing Palestinian prisoners. However, disputes remain over Israel’s insistence on maintaining a military presence in key areas, which Hamas views as unacceptable.

In Gaza, there is little optimism about Blinken’s visit. “They are lying just to destroy us more and more,” said Hanan Abu Hamid, a displaced resident of Rafah. “Blinken is useless, his visit will harm the Palestinian people.” [Reuters] 

Opinion: 

This development is seen as a crucial, and perhaps one of the last opportunities for de-escalating the conflict which has plunged Gaza into a humanitarian catastrophe and strained U.S. relations in the Middle East.

The U.S. Secretary of State’s visit comes at a politically charged time, as President Joe Biden faces increasing pressure over his handling of the Gaza conflict, with the Democratic Party’s national convention beginning and pro-Palestinian protests taking place across the U.S. There is growing concern about the impact on Muslim and Arab American voters in key swing states. [Reuters] 

The road to an agreement remains fraught with challenges. Months of on-and-off negotiations have stalled over key issues, including Israel’s insistence on the destruction of Hamas as a military and political entity and Hamas’s demand for a permanent ceasefire. Disagreements also persist regarding Israel’s military presence in Gaza, particularly along the Egypt border, and the specifics of a prisoner exchange deal.

The ongoing conflict continues to destabilize the region, with renewed border skirmishes between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah over the weekend raising fears of a broader escalation yet again. 

Blinken emphasized the importance of avoiding any actions that could derail the fragile peace process or escalate the conflict further, particularly with the involvement of Iran and other regional powers.

As Blinken and other mediators work to finalize an agreement, the coming days will be crucial. However, with deep-seated mistrust and conflicting demands on both sides, the prospect of a peaceful resolution remains uncertain.

– P.T.

08/16 – International News Story

In a recent Reuters survey, Japanese businesses revealed they are more inclined to favor a potential Kamala Harris presidency over a second term for Donald Trump. Respondents’ opinions reflected significant concerns about protectionism and policy unpredictability. 

Japan, a close ally of the United States and deeply affected by its economic policies, is watching the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election closely, especially in light of the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.

The survey, carried out by Nikkei Research between July 31 and August 9, reached 506 Japanese companies, with 243 firms responding. Among them, 43% expressed a preference for Harris, citing a desire for stability and continuity in U.S. policies. In contrast, only 8% preferred Trump, while 46% stated that either candidate would be acceptable, and 3% favored neither. [Reuters] 

A ceramics manufacturer highlighted the potential challenges of another Trump administration, noting that “trade war, economic friction, and security threats” could force a reevaluation of their business strategy. This sentiment was echoed by a chemicals firm official who appreciated the predictability that a Harris administration might offer, suggesting that it would provide “better visibility into the future.”

Japanese companies also expressed concerns about potential changes under a Trump administration, with 34% indicating a need to review their foreign exchange strategies, 28% considering supply chain realignments, and 21% contemplating a reduction in their China operations. [Reuters] 

The survey also shed light on the broader economic relationship between Japan and China, revealing that 13% of Japanese companies are considering reducing their operations in China, regardless of the U.S. election outcome. Economic challenges in China, including a slower-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter and a decline in export growth, are driving these decisions. Companies like Honda Motor and Nippon Steel have already announced cutbacks in their China operations. 

The recent survey also touched on Japan’s foreign exchange market, where 24% of respondents supported recent interventions by Japanese authorities to stabilize the yen, which had reached a 38-year low against the dollar earlier this year. While opinions were mixed on whether the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates to support the yen, 51% of respondents agreed that such a move should only occur in cases of extreme exchange rate fluctuations.

As the yen continues to show volatility, Japanese companies are bracing for a range of possible outcomes by the end of the year. The survey results indicate that 32% of firms expect the yen to trade between 145 to 150 yen per dollar, while 25% predict a firmer range of 140 to 145 yen, and 22% foresee it weakening further to between 150 to 155 yen per dollar.  [Reuters] 

Overall, it seems Japanese businesses are looking to navigate a complex economic landscape influenced by both U.S. and Chinese policies, with many looking for stability and predictability in the face of potential global disruptions. Man or woman that is in the White House come 2025 will serve to influence what this uncertainty holds for Japan and the rest of global markets. 

08/15 – International News Story

In September 2022, the Nord Stream gas pipelines, a critical energy conduit running from Russia to Germany, were rocked by subsea explosions, marking the most significant attack on Germany’s energy infrastructure since World War II. 

The blasts, which crippled three of the four pipelines, sparked international controversy and a flurry of accusations as to who was responsible, with Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and the United Kingdom all being mentioned as potential culprits.

A new development has emerged in the investigation, as German authorities issued a warrant in June for the arrest of Ukrainian diving instructor Vladimir Zhuravlev. [Politico]

Zhuravlev is suspected of orchestrating the attack, which involved chartering a yacht named “Andromeda” and using diving gear to plant explosives near the pipelines under the Baltic Sea, close to the Danish island of Bornholm.

According to reports from German news program Tagesschau, Zhuravlev’s involvement has been a focal point for investigators, who are led to believe that the operation was carried out by a group of Ukrainian citizens. 

The Nord Stream pipelines have been a subject of intense debate and criticism for years, particularly from Ukraine, the United States, and Poland, who argued that Germany’s reliance on Russian gas compromised European energy security. This criticism only intensified following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 

Although Nord Stream 1 had been operational since 2011, and Nord Stream 2 was completed but not yet active, the pipelines became untenable in the geopolitical climate of the time.

Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s firm denial of his country’s involvement—stating, “I would never act that way”—reports have surfaced suggesting that plans to attack the pipelines were in motion as early as 2014. Documents leaked online and reported by The Washington Post indicated that the U.S. had intelligence about a possible Ukrainian plan to target the Baltic Sea gas links three months before the explosions.  [Politico] 

Information is still speculative as some Western and German intelligence officials have expressed doubts about Ukraine’s culpability, suggesting the possibility of a “false flag operation” designed to disguise Russian involvement. This theory has gained traction, particularly in Polish security circles, which have even provided German intelligence with the names of Russian suspects. Yet, German investigators remained unconvinced, opting instead to pursue Zhuravlev as their primary suspect. [Politico] 

Further complicating the case, Denmark and Sweden launched their own investigations into the explosions but ultimately suspended their inquiries without naming any suspects. German authorities, however, pressed forward, eventually identifying Zhuravlev with the help of photos and witness testimonies. 

A warrant for his arrest was transmitted to Poland in June, but by then, Zhuravlev had already fled the country, returning to Ukraine in early July. Polish authorities confirmed that Zhuravlev was not apprehended due to a failure to enter his name into an international law enforcement database. [Politico] 

The case also implicated two additional suspects, Svitlana and Yevhen Uspensky, a married couple who run a diving school in Ukraine and who allegedly employed Zhuravlev. In an interview with POLITICO, Svitlana Uspenska denied any involvement, asserting that she was in Kyiv at the time of the attack and that her diving capabilities were insufficient for such an operation, which required expertise at depths of 70 to 80 meters. Uspenska, now residing in Poland, has threatened to sue German media outlets for defamation.

As the investigation continues, the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines remains shrouded in mystery, with questions about responsibility and motive still unresolved. 

The incident not only underscores the fragility of Europe’s energy infrastructure but also highlights the complexities of the geopolitical landscape in the wake of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

08/14 – International News Update

According to three senior Iranian officials, only a negotiated ceasefire agreement in Gaza might prevent Iran from launching direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. [Reuters]

Iran has pledged a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which occurred during his visit to Tehran late last month, with Tehran holding Israel responsible. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has dispatched warships and a submarine to the Middle East to strengthen Israel’s defenses.

A senior Iranian security official indicated that Iran, along with its allies like Hezbollah, would initiate a direct attack if the Gaza talks collapse or if Iran perceives Israel is stalling negotiations. The sources did not specify how much time Iran would allow for the talks before taking action.

Following the deaths of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, there is heightened concern about a broader Middle East conflict. In recent days, Iran has engaged in intense discussions with Western countries and the U.S. about how to calibrate its response. 

The U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed on Tuesday that Washington is urging allies to help persuade Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described efforts to engage with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, scheduled to begin on Thursday, possibly in Egypt or Qatar.

“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. stated on Friday. However, Iran’s foreign ministry criticized calls for restraint, arguing they “contradict principles of international law.” Neither Iran’s foreign ministry nor the Revolutionary Guards Corps responded to requests for comment. Similarly, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the U.S. State Department did not provide comments. [Reuters]

“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby remarked on Monday. “If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added. [Reuters]

Over the weekend, Hamas expressed doubts about whether the talks would proceed. Israel and Hamas have engaged in several rounds of negotiations in recent months without reaching a final ceasefire agreement.

In Israel, many analysts believe a response is imminent following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.

UPDATE ON TALKS

Hamas has expressed growing doubt in the United States’ capacity to effectively mediate a cease-fire in Gaza. Ahead of scheduled talks, Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, voiced concerns over the U.S. role, emphasizing that the militant group will only engage in discussions centered on the implementation of a proposal previously outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden and backed internationally. [AP News]

The cease-fire proposal, initially labeled by the U.S. as an Israeli initiative, has seen contentious negotiations, with both Hamas and Israel accusing each other of obstructing progress. Central to the discord is Israel’s insistence on maintaining a lasting military presence in key areas of Gaza after any cease-fire—a demand that has recently become public and one that Hamas vehemently opposes.

Hamdan, in an interview with The Associated Press, underscored Hamas’ stance, stating that any further discussions should focus on the practicalities of implementing the cease-fire rather than renegotiating terms. “We have informed the mediators that … any meeting should be based on talking about implementation mechanisms and setting deadlines rather than negotiating something new,” Hamdan declared, adding that Hamas sees no value in participating otherwise. [AP News]

Hamdan accused Israel of bad faith in the negotiations, alleging that Israel’s inconsistent participation and shifting demands have stymied progress. Despite these challenges, Hamdan provided documentation showing Hamas’ attempts to add guarantors like Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations to the cease-fire process—a move consistently rejected by Israel, which insists on sticking to the original mediators: the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar.

The Israeli government, however, disputes Hamas’ narrative. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office recently stated that their requested changes to the cease-fire proposal were merely “clarifications” rather than obstacles, accusing Hamas of being the real impediment to peace by seeking numerous amendments. [AP News]

The conflict’s volatility was highlighted by recent events, including the deaths of key figures in both Hamas and Hezbollah, which have raised fears of a wider regional war. 

Amidst a brief truce in November that saw the release of over 100 Israeli hostages, subsequent cease-fire talks have repeatedly collapsed, leaving around 110 captives still in Gaza, some believed to be dead.

Hamdan accused Israel of intensifying its attacks on Hamas leaders following the group’s tentative agreement to the latest cease-fire proposal from mediators. A notable incident occurred on July 13, when an Israeli operation in Gaza reportedly resulted in the death of Mohammed Deif, the elusive leader of Hamas’ military wing, along with over 90 others, according to local health officials. Despite these reports, Hamdan claimed that Deif is still alive. [AP News]

The situation escalated further two weeks later with the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, an event that both Hamas and Iran attributed to Israeli actions. In response, Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar, its Gaza chief and a key figure in the October 7 attack on Israel, to succeed Haniyeh. This leadership change marks a shift from Haniyeh, who was seen as a more moderate figure, to Sinwar, known for his hardline stance. 

Hamdan acknowledged that there are challenges and delays in maintaining communication with Sinwar, who is believed to be hiding deep within Gaza’s tunnel network. However, he insisted that these difficulties do not significantly hinder the ongoing negotiations.

Israel has expressed concern that Hamas might drag out negotiations indefinitely, using them as a cover to regroup. On the other hand, Hamas fears that Israel could resume hostilities once its most vulnerable hostages are freed.

The prospect of Israel maintaining a military presence in strategic areas of Gaza has further complicated talks. Although Hamas insists on a full Israeli withdrawal, recent reports suggest Israel is pushing for control over key border regions and internal routes, proposals that Hamas has yet to formally acknowledge.

Despite the immense suffering endured by Palestinians, Hamdan was resolute that Hamas would not surrender its demands, asserting, “A cease-fire is one thing, and surrender is something else.” [AP News]

The coming days will determine whether these entrenched positions can be reconciled or if the region will continue its descent into deeper conflict.

08/13 – International News Story & Updates

Ukraine’s forces launched a surprise invasion into Russian territory last week. 

Early morning on August 6, Ukraine launched its unexpected cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, located to the northeast. The raid has been ongoing for six days now, with Russia already ceded control of more than 350 square miles of its territory to Ukrainian troops. [CNN] 

The governor of Kursk, the region under attack by Ukrainian troops, ordered authorities to speed up the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. On Saturday Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, publicly acknowledged the incursion for the first time and said it was bringing “exactly the kind of pressure that is needed—pressure on the aggressor”. The operation is Ukraine’s biggest cross-border incursion since Russia invaded it in 2022. [The Economist] 

Russian authorities began evacuating civilians from parts of Belgorod, a border region, as Ukraine’s army continued its advance into Kursk, a neighboring Russian region. 

By August 8th, Ukrainian forces had advanced to Sudzha, located 10km from the border, and Korenevo, 15km within Russian territory. Intense battles are ongoing in both areas, with reports indicating that smaller Ukrainian units have pushed further into Russian soil. Social media footage reveals the aftermath of these clashes, with destroyed buildings and the bodies of soldiers lying on roads riddled with craters. Videos from the operation’s first day also show a large group of Russian prisoners being led away under armed guard. [The Economist]

Early on Sunday, Kursk officials reported that 13 people were injured when debris from a destroyed Ukrainian missile struck a nine-story residential building in the city. [Reuters]

Around 76,000 residents have fled, prompting Russian authorities to declare a state of emergency in the area. The lack of a well-coordinated evacuation has led to widespread anger. Vladimir Putin described the situation as a major “provocation.” Volodymyr Artiukh, head of Ukraine’s military administration in Sumy, stated that Ukraine’s success served as a “cold shower” for the Russians, adding, “They are now experiencing what we’ve endured for years, since 2014. This is a historical event.” [The Economist 2]

Russian authorities swiftly evacuated residents and implemented a broad security crackdown in three border regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, bolstered its troop presence along its border with Ukraine, accusing Kyiv of airspace violations. [Reuters]

In his video address, Zelenskyy mentioned discussions with top Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, pledging to respond decisively in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. 

“Today, I received several reports from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding the front lines and our actions to push the war onto the aggressor’s territory,” Zelenskyy said late on Saturday. “Ukraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and is ensuring the exact kind of pressure that is needed—pressure on the aggressor.” [Reuters]

Russian President Vladimir Putin held an operational meeting on Monday, where he emphasized the need for his military to “push and drive the enemy out of our territories” and secure the border, as reported by the Kremlin. According to local authorities, Ukraine currently controls 28 settlements in Russia’s Kursk region. [Politico] 

Putin also cast blame onto Western countries who he labels as the masters of Ukraine’s plot to incite cross-border violence and heighten destabilization. 

As of Monday August 12, As many as 180,000 Russian civilians are being evacuated from regions near the border with Ukraine as the Kremlin scrambles to deal with Ukraine’s continued cross-border incursion. [Politico 2] 

According to a Ukrainian official, Russia has withdrawn some troops from southern Ukraine and redeployed them within its own borders to counter an intensifying offensive by Kyiv’s forces. 

“Russia has moved some of its units from the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in southern Ukraine,” said Dmytro Lykhoviy, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian army, in a statement on Tuesday Aug 13. [Politico 3]

Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and currently occupies 18% of Ukrainian land. Prior to the unexpected assault on Russian soil, Ukraine had been steadily losing ground to Russian forces, despite receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in support from the U.S. and Europe intended to halt and potentially reverse the Russian advances. [Reuters 2]

Opinion: 

The Kursk raid has been cloaked in secrecy, catching Western governments off guard. Even a Ukrainian general-staff source near the border admitted to not fully understanding the operation, revealing that troops were ordered to prepare on August 4th without being told their destination. The surprise and silence surrounding the raid are reminiscent of Ukraine’s rapid offensive in Kharkiv province in late 2022. [The Economist]

Unlike previous cross-border raids led mainly by Ukraine’s military intelligence, this operation is closely linked to the new and often criticized commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, with regular army units participating for the first time. The high stakes mean that General Syrsky’s career could be on the line. Reports from Ukrainian hospitals indicate rising casualty numbers, leading some to question the wisdom of committing so many troops to the incursion while other critical frontlines are stretched thin. The operation’s ultimate success will determine whether this strategy was justified

However, this particular incursion into Kursk, following setbacks for Russia in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, marks what some see as the “fourth major failure” of Russian generals in mechanized warfare.

A more realistic goal might be to establish an embarrassing “buffer zone” along the border, similar to Russia’s attempts in Kharkiv over the past few months. This zone could even serve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. 

An intelligence source notes that Russia had been trying to secure a solid position, but now faces a crisis, unable to defend its own territory. [The Economist]

While maintaining any new Ukrainian line within Russian territory would be challenging, it would deliver a symbolic blow to Vladimir Putin. For a nation in desperate need of positive news over the past year, such a development would be significant. 

This marks Kyiv’s most substantial incursion into Russian territory since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Ukrainian incursion marks the most significant breach into Russia since Nazi Germany’s invasion in June 1941, which eventually led to the pivotal Battle of Kursk in 1943. 

The presence of foreign forces on Russian territory serves as a humiliation for both the military and President Putin, especially amidst his reassurances to the Russian population that they would not feel the effects of war since launching the Ukrainian invasion. 

Nearly a week into the operation, it seems to have significantly boosted morale for Ukraine and its Western allies, who seem cautiously supportive of the effort. 

Some elements of Ukraine’s operation seem to have been carefully orchestrated, with operational security providing the critical advantage of surprise. A source from the general staff involved in the operation stated, “We sent our most combat-ready units to the weakest point on their border,” noting that conscripted Russian soldiers faced elite paratroopers and quickly surrendered. [The Economist 2]

The operation does however also show signs of being hastily prepared, as the three soldiers interviewed were pulled from high-pressure front lines in the east with almost no notice.

The ultimate objective of Ukraine’s operation remains uncertain as whether the aim is to advance further toward the city of Kursk, to occupy the territory as leverage in future negotiations, or simply to withdraw after dealing a blow to Vladimir Putin’s image. Ukraine does not appear to be seriously reinforcing its positions, however the combat still flares on and they haven’t shown any signs of retreat just yet. 

At a minimum, the operation seems intended to divert Russian troops away from the heavily contested areas of Kharkiv and Donbas, which are central to the war. Early indications suggest mixed results—while Russia has redeployed some forces from the Kharkiv front, it has moved far fewer from the critical Donbas region.

– P.T.

08/10 – International News Update & Story

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate earlier this week. 

Walz, 60, has been Minnesota’s Democratic Governor since 2018, as well as a U.S. Army National Guard veteran, former schoolteacher and football coach. Walz was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006, representing a Republican-leaning district for 12 years before being elected as Minnesota’s governor in 2018 and re-elected in 2022.

“Tim is a battle-tested leader who has an incredible track record of getting things done for Minnesota families,” Harris told supporters. [Reuters]

Walz has pushed a progressive agenda that includes free school meals, goals for tackling climate change, tax cuts for the middle class and expanded paid leave for workers. [Reuters]

Walz was not very popular or nationally recognized at all until the Democratic race for VP pick kicked off in the past two weeks, and the Governor was ultimately selected over other assumed choices like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. 

Walz gained significant attention in the past couple weeks, in part due to his use of the word “weird” to describe Trump and Vance—an insult that was embraced and adopted by the Harris campaign, quickly spread on social media by Democratic activists. 

Walz has also challenged the middle-class credentials claimed by Trump and Vance. In an MSNBC interview, he remarked, “They talk about the middle class, but a wealthy real estate mogul and a venture capitalist claiming to understand us? They don’t know who we are.” [Reuters]

Harris’ decision to pick Walz was likely  influenced by both electoral strategy and a desire to avoid intra-party disputes. On Tuesday Aug 6, she joined him at a rally in Philadelphia alongside Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who was once a frontrunner for the vice-presidential spot but lost momentum due to criticism of his stance on the Gaza conflict and his support for school vouchers. Unlike Mr. Shapiro, Mr. Walz has seen his popularity rise recently, particularly among the Democratic Party’s left wing. However, Mr. Walz lacks the name recognition in key swing states that Mr. Shapiro might have brought the ticket. [The Economist] 

Minnesota, Mr. Walz’s home state, hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1972, and current polls suggest it isn’t likely to flip in the upcoming election.

Mr. Walz’s appeal lies in his political acumen and personal story. Recently, he has become a vocal advocate for Harris, with his sharp critique of Republicans gaining traction as a broader Democratic talking point. His background contrasts with Harris’s; born in rural Nebraska in 1964, he attended a school where many of his classmates were relatives. Walz spent two decades as a teacher and served in the National Guard for 24 years, retiring as a Command Sergeant Major. A committed hunter, he once held an A rating from the National Rifle Association during his early years in Congress. [The Economist] 

Despite his past positions, which were considered more conservative, Mr. Walz has embraced a progressive agenda as governor, including increased spending on public schools, free school meals, paid family leave, legalized marijuana, expanded background checks for gun buyers, and strengthened abortion rights. 

On foreign policy, Mr. Walz’s views can be traced back to a 2007 speech in which he criticized the Bush administration’s focus on security over diplomacy and emphasized the importance of human rights in American policy. As governor, he signed legislation to divest state investments in Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, although he resisted similar calls regarding Israel.  [The Economist] 

Mr. Walz’s record does have its stains, particularly regarding his response to the Minneapolis riots following the murder of George Floyd in May 2020. The killing of Floyd, a Black man, by a white Minneapolis police officer, who was later convicted of murder, ignited widespread protests and exposed deep racial tensions both in the U.S. and abroad. Critics argue that Walz was slow to act, hesitating to deploy the National Guard to curb the looting, arson, and violence that ensued. This delay became a major point of contention, especially after a police station was set ablaze by protestors. Walz’s handling of this crisis has been a significant source of criticism, particularly from those who believe he did not act swiftly enough to maintain order.

More recently, his administration faced criticism over a massive fraud scheme involving funds intended for child nutrition during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, there are some concerns about his personal life, including a past DUI arrest in 1995, though he was ultimately convicted of reckless driving. [The Economist] 

The choice of Ms Harris at the top of the ticket has changed the race. In our polling average, the Democrats’ candidate is now ahead in the national vote for the first time since October 2023. Yet this election is still very close. That slender national lead, if it is real, would probably translate into something that approaches a 50% chance of winning in the electoral college. When Mr Trump is just a coin-toss away from another four years, a safety-first strategy is not wise.

Opinion:

Walz has labeled himself as an avid hunter and gun owner with deep connections to rural American voters which have in majority staunchly voted for Trump in the past couple elections. 

The Trump campaign has attacked the selection by painting Walz as overly liberal similar to Kamala Harris and emphasizing the fact that their liberal politics are out of touch with a majority of Americans’ values. 

Walz’s straightforward comments and simple form of criticism that plainly labels the Republican leaders as “weird”, appears to connect with their public base more effectively than the sweeping statements of other Trump critics, who up until now relied heavily on a Democratic campaign that primarily depicted the Republican presidential candidate as an existential threat to democracy. 

Tim Walz’s journey to the national political stage is marked by a diverse and unconventional career path, standing out in a field of carefully crafted career politicians and bureaucrats. 

From a geography teacher and lunchroom monitor to a high-school football coach, National Guard reservist, congressman, and state governor, Walz’s background is refreshingly varied. His first foray into politics came in his 40s when he ran for office in a rural Minnesota district that was widely considered unwinnable. A lover of hunting, maps, and small-town humor, Walz is notably the first non-lawyer on the Democratic ticket since 1980.

Harris might have seemingly gone with Walz as her running mate for his vibes, but the choice does hold its own political risks. Walz was the preferred choice of the party’s online left and labor unions, raising concerns that Harris’s decision may reflect a tendency to align with this faction of the party, or that she prioritizes party unity above all else. This could be a concern for her campaign, as winning key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin requires appealing to voters who find the Democrats too left-leaning but are also dissatisfied with Donald Trump. This balancing act was central to Joe Biden’s success in 2020, despite Trump’s perceived eccentricities. On average, Americans still view Democrats as more out of touch than Republicans. [The Economist]

To win over moderates, Harris needs to be more vocal about her opposition to illegal immigration and her independence from special-interest groups, including teachers’ unions.

By selecting Walz, Harris has appeased the left wing of her party, but she will need to do more to ensure broader appeal if she wants to defeat Trump in November. 

– P.T.

08/08 – International News Story

Several British cities experienced widespread unrest and violent protests over the last week. The violence followed the tragic murder of three young girls in the town of Seaport in northwest England, marking the country’s most significant rioting in 13 years. 

Three girls — Bebe King, six, Elsie Dot Stancombe, seven, and Alice Dasilva Aguiar, nine — were fatally stabbed while attending a Taylor Swift-themed dance event. The attack also injured 10 others, some critically.

A 17-year-old male was arrested, and he was later revealed to be born in Cardiff to parents from Rwanda. [Politico]

Riots erupted in various towns and cities involving hundreds of anti-immigration protesters. These protests were fueled by alleged misinformation spread on social media, falsely claiming that the suspect in Monday’s knife attack at a children’s dance class in Southport was a radical Muslim migrant. The police clarified that the suspect, 17-year-old Axel Rudakubana, was born in Britain. Despite this, anti-immigration and anti-Muslim protests continued, leading to violence, arson, and looting. [Reuters] 

From Friday to Sunday, violent demonstrators gathered in city and town centers across the UK, intent on clashing with police and causing chaos. The gatherings, initially anti-immigration marches, were organized through social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), WhatsApp, and Telegram, quickly escalating into disorder and violence. [CNN] 

The cities of Liverpool, Bristol, Hull, and Belfast saw significant public demonstrations, with clashes between anti-immigration protesters and anti-racism groups. Some confrontations involved young men hurling bricks and bottles, resulting in numerous injuries to police officers attempting to separate the opposing groups.

In Liverpool, two police officers were hospitalized with suspected facial fractures, and another officer was assaulted after being pushed from his motorbike. The city witnessed approximately 750 protesters and an equal number of counter-protesters, according to Merseyside Police, who oversee the northwestern city. Police also reported that at least two shops in Liverpool were vandalized and looted. Similar incidents occurred in Bristol, where anti-racist demonstrators outnumbered anti-immigration protesters. TV footage showed them confronting police in riot gear.

In Belfast, businesses reported property damage, and at least one establishment was set on fire. Rahmi Akyol, a local cafe owner, expressed confusion over why his business was attacked by dozens wielding bottles and chairs. “I’ve lived here for 35 years. My kids, my wife, are from here. I don’t know what to say, it’s terrible,” he said. [Reuters] 

Two Holiday Inn hotels, one in Rotherham, northern England, and another in Tamworth, central England, were set on fire by protesters. Both hotels housed asylum seekers awaiting decisions on their claims. 

According to South Yorkshire Police Assistant Chief Constable Lindsey Butterfield, the Rotherham hotel was “full of terrified residents and staff.” In Tamworth, rioters threw projectiles, smashed windows, and started fires, injuring a police officer, as reported by local authorities. In Rotherham, protesters used wooden planks, fire extinguishers against officers, set fires near the hotel, and smashed windows to enter the building. [CNN] 

Violence also erupted in Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Stoke-on-Trent, and several other cities, predominantly in the Midlands and northern England. The Home Office announced on Sunday that UK mosques were receiving increased security due to these incidents. [CNN] 

On Friday Aug 2, Sunderland witnessed anti-immigration protesters throwing stones at police near a mosque, overturning vehicles, setting a car on fire, and starting a blaze near a police station. Mark Hall, the chief police superintendent of the Sunderland area, described the incident as “unforgivable violence and disorder,” stating that it was not a protest but sheer chaos. More protests were expected on Sunday. [Reuters] 

Police report that nearly 400 individuals have been arrested following six days of riots across parts of England and Northern Ireland. On Monday evening, police in Plymouth faced attacks while trying to separate rival protesters, officers in Belfast were targeted with petrol bombs, and authorities managed unrest in eastern Birmingham. [BBC] 

Just over the weekend, more than 370 individuals were arrested in connection with the violence, and this number is expected to rise as law enforcement continues to identify and apprehend those involved, according to the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), the UK’s national law enforcement body. [CNN] 

Throughout the past week, numerous police officers have sustained injuries, and there has been significant damage to shops, cars, and homes due to the disorder in the UK. 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, facing a significant challenge just a month after his election, condemned the “far-right” for inciting violence and supported the police in taking decisive action. His office reported that he discussed the unrest with senior ministers on Saturday. [Reuters] 

Reform U.K., the populist right-wing party led by Nigel Farage, has publicly condemned the recent riots, distancing itself from the events and criticizing the “levels of violence seen in the last couple of days.” [Politico]

Starmer stated from Downing Street, “People in this country have a right to be safe, yet we’ve seen Muslim communities targeted, attacks on mosques, other minority communities singled out, Nazi salutes in the street, attacks on the police, and wanton violence alongside racist rhetoric.” He added, “I won’t shy away from calling it what it is: Far-right thuggery.” [CNN] 

This crisis has abruptly ended Starmer’s post-election honeymoon, prompting MPs from across the political spectrum to urge him to recall Parliament for a debate on the riots. The Parliament is currently in summer recess, however Starmer’s spokesperson stated that the government is focused on responding to the unrest.

According to PA Media, Parliament has been recalled six times in the past decade, but only once to address a live crisis unrelated to the Covid-19 pandemic—the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban in 2021. 

Tech Platform Outrage

X’s billionaire owner, Elon Musk, provoked outrage in the British government over the weekend by stating that “civil war is inevitable” in response to footage of far-right unrest sweeping the nation. This comment, made on X, drew widespread condemnation from the office of U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which declared there was “no justification” for Musk’s remarks. [Politico]  

intensified tensions on Monday night by challenging the U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s response to recent far-right riots. After Starmer condemned attacks on mosques and Muslim communities, Musk questioned whether the prime minister was ignoring broader issues, asking, “Shouldn’t you be concerned about attacks on all communities?” 

Interior Minister Yvette Cooper expressed numerous concerns about how social media platforms like X handle incitement and disinformation. She emphasized the need for police intervention in criminal matters and urged social media companies to promptly remove criminal content and enforce their terms of service.

Despite widespread concern about far-right messaging, the U.K. has limited means to compel social media companies to act. The recent riots, which targeted mosques and asylum seekers’ accommodations, were heavily influenced by online communications. False information about the killing of three children in Southport last week spread through fake news channels on X. Influential figures like Tommy Robinson and Laurence Fox used platforms such as X, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok to amplify their messages.

WhatsApp and Telegram facilitated the organization of protests, while Facebook was used to distribute flyers, and TikTok shared videos of the violence. X, in particular, has become a hub for far-right discussions, with Musk reinstating Robinson’s account, despite his bans on Instagram and Facebook.

Tech Secretary Peter Kyle acknowledged that social media played a significant role in the riots, stating that these platforms have a responsibility to prevent harmful content and that the government is working closely with them to ensure they meet this obligation. [Politico]  

Response

On Wednesday August 8, following a week of violent anti-migrant protests, thousands of police and anti-racism demonstrators took to the streets across Britain, prepared for far-right groups that ultimately did not appear. [Reuters] 

This followed a week of violent racist attacks aimed at Muslims and migrants. Online posts had suggested that far-right, anti-Muslim protesters would target various immigration centers and law firms, leading to early business closures and boarded-up shops.

In response, large crowds of protesters gathered in cities like London, Bristol, and Birmingham, carrying banners with messages such as “Fight racism” and “Stop the far right.” The protesters included a diverse mix of Muslims, anti-racist groups, trade unionists, and local residents who were outraged by the recent riots that saw violent clashes with police and attacking hotels housing asylum-seekers from regions like Africa and the Middle East, while chanting anti-immigrant slogans. Mosques were also targeted with rocks, prompting safety warnings from Muslim organizations.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, dealing with his first major crisis since taking office, has vowed to take strong action against the rioters, warning that those inciting violence will face severe legal consequences. On Wednesday, several individuals received prison sentences for their involvement in the disorder. Starmer emphasized the government’s commitment to maintaining order and enforcing the law. 

To address potential violence, the government has assembled a “standing army” of 6,000 specialist police officers, and so far, over 120 people have been charged, with 428 arrests made in connection to the unrest. [Reuters]

Opinion: 

Recent violence erupted following a tragic stabbing in Southport, northwest England, where several children were attacked, resulting in the deaths of three young girls. This shocking event has left the nation in awe and fueled many citizens that were already on edge with renewed outrage. Far-right groups exploited the tragedy by spreading information hinting that the suspect was an immigrant, aiming to provoke anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant sentiments. 

Britain has seen a rise in anti-migrant rhetoric in recent years, with some critics suggesting this has emboldened far-right sympathizers, contributing to the recent unrest. An abominable event such as this gruesome stabbing seems like the perfect catalyst for anti-migrant anger from British citizens that has been ready to boil over. 

In the latest general election, Reform UK, a right-wing populist party with a strong anti-immigration stance, garnered the third-highest number of votes. Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, condemned the riots but pointed to broader issues, criticizing previous policing of anti-racism protests and mass migration.

Some Conservative Party members, who have also adopted stricter migration policies over the past 14 years, disagreed with Farage’s remarks. Former Home Secretary Priti Patel, subtly criticizing Farage, stated that violence is never acceptable and that politicians must unequivocally condemn it.

The organization of the riots was facilitated through social media and messaging platforms such as WhatsApp and Telegram, bringing these services into the national debate on addressing violence. Elon Musk’s X platform faced backlash for reinstating far-right figures like Tommy Robinson, who used it to incite protests. Joe Mulhall from Hope Not Hate, a UK-based anti-racism charity, noted that Robinson’s return to X has allowed extremists to spread harmful propaganda widely.

Labour leader Keir Starmer condemned the protesters as “far-right thugs,” a statement that drew online criticism and led to the hashtag #FarRightThugsUnite trending on X. Musk tweeted that “civil war is inevitable” in response to posts blaming the riots on mass migration. The prime minister’s spokesperson later stated that such comments were unjustifiable and that Starmer did not share those sentiments.

Migration has been a highly controversial and debated topic in Britain, especially since the 2016 Brexit referendum. In recent years, the country has experienced unprecedented levels of net migration, driven by newcomers from Ukraine, Hong Kong, and individuals pursuing work or education opportunities. 

In 2023 alone, 29,000 people crossed the Channel in small boats, many escaping war-torn regions. The far-right’s adoption of the “stop the boats” slogan, which was originally used by the Conservative Party, highlights the persistent tensions surrounding immigration.

The recent violent riots sweeping through the UK serve as a stark reminder of the underlying racial tensions in European societies, with migration increasingly emerging as the defining issue of the past decade.

– P.T.

08/06 – International News Update

The Palestinian militant group Hamas announced that they have selected Yahya Sinwar as its new chief. 

In a statement Tuesday, the group announced “the selection of Commander Yahya Sinwar as head of the movement’s political bureau, succeeding the martyred leader Ismail Haniyeh, may God have mercy on him.” [CNN] 

This decision comes after Israel’s assassination of Hamas’ previous political leader Ismail Haniyeh last week in Iran. 

Sinwar is the top official in Gaza who is credited as the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks in Israel that killed over 1,200 people and launched Israel’s war in Gaza. 

Sinwar is considered to be at the top of Israel’s hitlist due to his leading role in orchestrating the historic massacre of 1,200 Israelis and taking of over 250 hostages. He leads Hamas’ hardliners and has close ties with Iran. [AP News] 

Sinwar has reportedly remained in Gaza for the duration of the conflict. According to US officials, he has remained at large in the extensive network of tunnels beneath Gaza, moving frequently and possibly surrounded by hostages used as human shields. [CNN] 

Opinion: 

Sinwar’s appointment as the political leader of Hamas strengthens his influence within the movement but may create uncertainty regarding the future of ceasefire and hostage negotiations with Israel.

Analysts note that although Sinwar’s perspective has been a significant factor in these negotiations, his challenges in communicating with the outside world mean that other Hamas officials, led by Haniyeh until his assassination last week, have been handling the specifics of talks with mediators from Qatar and Egypt.

Many believe that even though Sinwar may not have been physically present at most stages of negotiation due to his nature of secrecy, he was undoubtedly being briefed and consulted at every stage of discussion. 

Sinwar has quickly risen to a prominent position within Hamas, leading the movement in Gaza. By choosing Sinwar as their leader, Hamas is not only highlighting Gaza’s significance in the ongoing events but also emphasizing its importance within the movement’s dynamics. 

“This sends a clear message that, when it comes to ceasefire negotiations, Gaza is in control,” says a commentator. [Al Jazeera] 

Born in a refugee camp in Gaza, south of Khan Younis, Sinwar previously headed the Al-Majd security apparatus, which was responsible for targeting Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel. He assumed leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip in 2017.

Sinwar is among several Hamas leaders for whom the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants over alleged war crimes committed on October 7. 

“The focus on Gaza and Sinwar is a strong signal of defiance,” said Al Jazeera senior political analyst Marwan Bishara. “It indicates that Hamas is determined to maintain its hold on Gaza and that its leadership will remain there.” [Al Jazeera] 

08/01 – International News Update & Story

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran after attending the inauguration of the country’s new president, Iran and the militant group said early Wednesday July 31.  [AP News] 

Although not having publicly claimed responsibility, it is widely believed to have been killed by a targeted Israeli airstrike. 

Hamas and Iran quickly blamed Israel for the shock assassination, pledging a harsh and vengeful retaliation.. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday morning that Iran considers it its “duty to take revenge” for the assassination. “With this action, the criminal and terrorist Zionist regime prepared the ground for a harsh punishment for itself,” he said. [Politico]

In a statement, Hamas said its leader was killed in “a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran,” and vowed revenge. [Politico] 

This comes as the second major regional assassination in under 24 hours. The Israeli military killed Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in an airstrike in a Beirut suburb on Tuesday July 30. [AP News] 

The killing came as a response to the rocket attack Saturday on the town of Majdal Shams that killed 12 young people in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israeli leaders and officials deemed Shukr responsible for the deadly strike. 

The U.N. Security Council is convening an emergency meeting today as the U.N.’s top leader calls for international action to prevent escalating tensions in the Middle East. 

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned against a “dangerous escalation” of hostilities in the region. [BBC] 

Iran requested the emergency session, urging the U.N.’s most powerful body to address “Israeli aggression and terrorist attacks.” Iran accuses Israel of killing Hamas leader Haniyeh, with its U.N. ambassador stating that the strikes “indicate an intention to escalate conflict and expand the war throughout the entire region.” [AP News]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also weighed in on the issue,  releasing a statement on X condemning the “treacherous assassination” and holding Israel accountable for the attack, which he claimed was intended to undermine the Palestinian cause. He further asserted that “Zionist barbarism will not be able to achieve its goals.” [Politico] 

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations also accused the United States of being responsible for the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, asserting that it could not have occurred without US authorization and intelligence support.

Earlier today, US Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood stated that “the United States was not aware of or involved in the apparent death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh,” and added that the US has “no independent confirmation regarding Hamas’s claims about his death.” [CNN] 

Ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel regarding the conflict in Gaza are now very much at stake. 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has encouraged Qatar’s prime minister, a crucial mediator in cease-fire negotiations, to persist in efforts to reach an agreement that would “secure the release of hostages, alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people, and unlock the possibility of broader stability,” according to the State Department. Hamas’ top political officials are based in Qatar. [AP News] 

 On social media, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani questioned, “Can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace requires serious partners and a global stance against the disregard for human life.” [AP News] 

UPDATE

On Thursday, Israel confirmed it killed the head of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Deif, in a mid-July airstrike. [Politico] 

Top Iranian officials are set to meet with representatives from Iran’s regional allies, including Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, on Thursday to discuss potential retaliation against Israel following the assassination of a Haniyeh in Tehran. [Reuters]

Representatives from Iran’s Palestinian allies, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, along with Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthi movement, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Iraqi resistance groups, will all attend the meeting in Tehran, sources told Reuters. 

“Iran and the resistance members will conduct a thorough assessment after the meeting in Tehran to determine the best and most effective way to retaliate against the Zionist regime (Israel),” said a senior Iranian official. Another Iranian official confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior members of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards would be in attendance. [Reuters] 

“The response of Iran and the resistance front is currently under review,” General Mohammad Baqeri, Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, told state TV on Thursday. “This will undoubtedly happen, and the Zionist regime (Israel) will regret it.”

Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, “All fronts of the resistance will take revenge for Haniyeh’s blood.” Former senior Revolutionary Guards Commander Esmail Kosari stated to state TV, “Iran’s response to the assassination of Martyr Haniyeh will be stronger than before.” [Reuters] 

Opinion: 

Israel has known for quite a while that Haniyeh has been living and leading out of Qatar for quite a while now, which indicates that Israel had a particular motive for assassinating the Hamas leader at this time, place, and in this fashion. 

Taking him out while in Tehran, on the day of inauguration of the Iranian president was surely symbolic and calculated in order to send a clear message to the Iranian regime itself and its proxy groups throughout the region. 

Assassinating him on Iranian soil, in the proximity of presidential events is extremely embarrassing for Iran and specifically at Pezeshkian’s swearing-in ceremony serves as a distasteful warning toward his expressed desire of trying to reset diplomatic relations with the United States. 

Israel is strongly against this sort of renewed dialogue between their greatest enemy and strongest ally whom they rely on so heavily for defense against the Islamic regime.  

Israel is sending bold messages throughout the Middle East to all of its adversaries. Iran’s transnational ‘axis of resistance’ that extends into other states like Palestine, Lebanon, or even home in Iran, are clearly not safe from the extent and capabilities of Israel’s intelligence and operational forces. The Israeli government and its leaders put this on full display by assassinating both Hamas’ political leader and one of Hezbollah’s military commanders—both in the capital of hostile countries, and within hours of each other. 

Ceasefire talks in Gaza are more fragile than ever now considering Hamas will probably be less willing to concede and come to an agreement following Israel’s sudden assassination of its political leader. Haniyeh played an important role in these negotiations for a ceasefire aimed at ending the Israel-Hamas war. 

The likelihood of military escalation throughout the region is ripe considering the blatant show of force and provocation by striking a valued political figure through such a humiliating manner  in Iran’s capital. The Islamic regime has no choice but to pledge and execute what they view as a dutifully required show of retaliation.  

A response from Lebanon’s Hezbollah following the killing of their top commander Fuad Shukr is even more certain now coupled with the aggravating assassination of Haniyeh in Iran. 

Within a week the cautious optimism that surrounded the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza has now quickly turned into a bracing for impact against inevitable retaliation that risks escalation into a wider regional war. 

It will be interesting to see how Iran and its proxies will choose to respond to this attack and whether Israel will then take it one step further. This is the dangerous reality of tit-for-tat and the dangerous delicacy of maintaining deterrence. 

It still seems unlikely that Iran, Hezbollah, or Israel would be willing or ready to actually engage in an all out war with each other at this moment, so it is vital that following the manner and degree of Iran’s retaliation to the provocative assassination of Haniyeh, Israel chooses restraint and all parties pivot towards a hopeful ceasefire in Gaza regardless. 

Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu can claim a more potent ‘victory’ now if they advertise the war as a great win following the eradication of these leaders of their enemy militias and reach a deal that ends the ongoing campaign in Gaza. 

Whether Netanyahu personally wants this sort of outcome where his existential war effort concludes and the focus of Israeli politics turns inwards and puts the spotlight on him and his relatively unpopular government is a different question.

For now, international allies like the United States especially must try to finally utilize their influence and demonstrate a significant and effective push towards a ceasefire in Gaza before the window of opportunity gets smaller and smaller.

– P.T.

07/31 – International News Update & Story

Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said on Monday that the country’s opposition has 73.2% of the voting tallies from Sunday’s election. [Reuters]

The tallies in possession of the opposition showed a total of 2.75 million votes for Maduro and 6.27 million for his rival, former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez, Machado said. The numbers were sharply different to the 5.15 million votes the electoral authority said Maduro had won, compared to 4.45 million for Gonzalez. [Reuters]

The electoral authority stated after midnight Sunday that Maduro had won a majority of the vote and proclaimed him president for 2025 to 2031. 

Indications of a stolen election began to surface, accompanied by triumphant early tweets from the president’s relatives. The defense minister, in military uniform, made a televised statement emphasizing the need for peace and order. 

Opposition observers were alarmed by significant irregularities in the vote count. A six-hour delay in announcing the results was attributed by the electoral authority to “terrorists.” Eventually, the authorities declared a decisive victory for Mr. Maduro. [Politico] 

The claim was widely disputed. An exit poll by Edison Research indicated Mr. González led by 65% to 31%. The Edison Research exit poll was conducted nationwide with 6,846 voters interviewed at 100 polling locations. 

The opposition rejected the official results, asserting that Mr. González had actually won with 70% of the vote, based on their own counts from individual polling stations. Each polling station is supposed to print and electronically send its results to the main count, which should be available for opposition verification. [Politico] 

Edmundo González,  a 74-year-old retired diplomat, was a surprise last-minute choice for the opposition. He  was relatively unknown until April when he replaced the prominent opposition figure Machado. Machado was barred from holding office for 15 years by the Maduro-controlled supreme court, leading to González’s unexpected candidacy at the age of 74. [AP News] 

Former lawmaker Machado won the opposition’s October primary by a landslide, securing over 90% of the vote. After being barred from the presidential race, she selected a college professor as her replacement, but the National Electoral Council prevented this registration as well. Subsequently, González, a political newcomer, was chosen as the candidate. 

Machado had called on the country’s military to uphold the results of the vote. The armed forces have long supported Maduro and there have been no public signs leaders were breaking from the government.

Thousands of protestors have begun taking to the streets to demonstrate against what many believe to be a stolen election. Many have gathered in towns and cities across Venezuela on Monday, including near the presidential palace in Caracas and outside some electoral authority offices. 

“I speak to you with the calmness of the truth,” González said as dozens of supporters cheered outside campaign headquarters in the capital, Caracas. “We have in our hands the tally sheets that demonstrate our categorical and mathematically irreversible victory.” [AP News] 

These public demonstrations have been met with hundreds of heavily armed government security forces. 

Protesters are continuing to take to the streets in mass Tuesday, holding marches and waving flags to demand President Nicolas Maduro acknowledge that he lost Sunday’s election, in what the Venezuelan government has now denounced as an attempted “coup” against Maduro. [Reuters]  

At least 16 people — including one soldier — have died and about 750 more have been arrested as a result of protests that have erupted following Sunday’s presidential election. [New York Times] 

Many Venezuelan voters were disheartened and outraged by the news of Maduro securing another six-year term, during which he oversaw an economic collapse, the exodus of approximately one-third of the population, and significant diplomatic setbacks. These setbacks include sanctions from the United States, the European Union, and other entities that have severely impacted an already struggling oil industry.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed significant concerns that the official results did not accurately represent the people’s votes. Biden administration officials, speaking to reporters anonymously, accused the government of “electoral manipulation.” [Reuters] 

Brazil and the European Union also demanded transparency regarding the polling data, whereas Russia, Cuba, Honduras, and Bolivia celebrated Maduro’s purported victory. 

Argentinian President Javier Milei announced on X, ““Venezuelans chose to end the communist dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro…Argentina will not recognize another fraud.” Uruguay’s President Luis Lacalle Pou and Peru’s Foreign Minister Javier González-Olaechea also dismissed the results as fraudulent. [Forbes] 

Costa Rica even said it was prepared to give political asylum to Machado and Gonzalez. On X, Machado thanked the government but said her priority was to “continue this struggle” from Venezuela. 

Opinion: 

It is clear that Maduro ran a completely fraudulent election. Voter turnout was reportedly very high, with many Venezuelan voters ready to actually try and take back and rebuild their faltering nation. 

His control of the armed forces is the only way he will try to maintain his grip on power. The previous presidential election in 2018, is widely recognized to have been fraudulently won by Maduro in the same fashion. 

For the opposition, their immediate goal as of now is likely to convince the Venezuelan public that the election is clearly stolen by pushing for as many polling stations as possible to release the real, printed results.

They must also try to lean heavily on international outcry and condemnation from other states on the blatant eradication of democracy in Venezuela. Once, the richest country in Latin America, a multi-decade path through Socialism has utterly destroyed the country’s economy and infrastructure, with nearly one-third of its population fleeing throughout Maduro’s two terms of dictatorship. The hyperinflation from earlier in Mr Maduro’s rule has eased, yet inflation still runs at an annual 50%. In the eight years to 2021 GDP fell by three-quarters. [Politico] 

A slim avenue of hope could be that members of the state’s armed forces begin to sympathize with their own people and turn against their tyrannous leader. A message for the military: the people of Venezuela have spoken. They don’t want Maduro,” Ms Machado, the opposition leader, tweeted. “It is time to put yourselves on the right side of history. You have a chance and it’s now.” [Politico] 

The ruling Socialist party backing Maduro maintains strict control over the voting system through a loyal five-member electoral council and a network of long-standing local party coordinators who have almost unrestricted access to voting centers. These coordinators have prevented opposition party representatives from entering voting centers. This exclusion, which is legally allowed for overseeing the voting process, counting votes, and obtaining the machines’ final tally sheets, ensures the ruling party’s influence over the election.

It is eerily telling of what’s at stake on the matter of democracy, as the only countries to have recognized Maduro’s victory are Russia, China, Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras and Bolivia. 

Without publishing official results, it is hard to believe that any Venezuelan citizens will respect the validity of the claimed election more than they already do. The question now will be how far are the people willing to go to take back their freedom through popular outcry and public mobilization. And if so, how violent can things really become if Maduro and his party double down even harder on their repression in order to cling onto power.  

– P.T.