6/23 International News

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently announced that the IDF’s offensive in the Palestinian border town of Rafah will soon wind down, following a prolonged bombing campaign since early May.

Instead, Israel now plans to deploy more troops to its northern border to confront Hezbollah. Fighting between IDF soldiers and Hezbollah militants has been ongoing since the October 7 Hamas attack, but tensions have escalated significantly in recent weeks, currently on an accelerated path to full-scale war.

The redeployment of troops from Gaza to the northern border, along with recent rhetoric from Israeli leadership, suggests the potential for a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah. This could involve an Israeli military offensive throughout Lebanon, risking a broader regional conflict. Reports indicate that the Israeli military has already drafted and approved plans for such an offensive.

A war with Hezbollah could draw in other Iranian proxy groups and possibly Iran itself, further complicating the situation. Hezbollah, much larger and better equipped than Hamas, poses a significant threat with its advanced weaponry, intelligence, and training.

There is a serious possibility that Iran would intervene to protect its most vital proxy group, Hezbollah, should Israel initiate a conflict in Lebanon. This scenario could quickly escalate if Israel acts aggressively, leading to widespread regional instability.

Opinion:

Launching a direct military offensive against Hezbollah would be costly and challenging for Israel, inviting increased instability and conflict in the Middle East. A war with Hezbollah would likely attract greater Iranian involvement and support, raising the risk of escalated sabotage against Israel and further heightening tensions.

Israel’s national security mindset has intensified since the October 7 attack, with its leadership asserting that the country is prepared to fight on multiple fronts if deemed necessary to eliminate existential threats. If this hawkish stance continues, the conflict may soon extend beyond Gaza and Hamas.

The international community has been closely watching since October, with major powers attempting to broker ceasefires or diplomatic resolutions. However, the deep-rooted ethnic divisions and nature of the adversaries make such outcomes unlikely.

The United States recognizes that an escalated war involving Hezbollah and possibly Iran endangers American troops stationed in the region. Any harm to American soldiers would necessitate a military response, potentially drawing the U.S. into another Middle Eastern conflict.

Currently, the American government is working frantically to deescalate tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, warning Netanyahu and his war cabinet of the severe risks associated with a Lebanese offensive. Given the current state of domestic politics and other global concerns like the war in Ukraine, the prospect of engaging in a conflict with Iran or its most powerful proxy is highly undesirable for the U.S.

6/20 International News Story

Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe has managed to rebound from the discontinuation of Russian gas supplies. However, Russia’s gas sector has not fared as well.

In response to European sanctions, Russia halted most gas deliveries to the EU, causing a temporary spike in prices. Europe adapted by turning to alternative suppliers, now mainly importing from the United States.

Before the invasion, the EU received over 40% of its gas imports from Russia. Last year, that figure dropped to about 8%. Currently, the EU sources over half its gas from the United States and Norway, with a significant portion also coming from North Africa. European fuel tanks are full, prices have stabilized, and there is no fear of blackouts.

In contrast, Russia’s situation is dire. Initially, they managed to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions by increasing dealings with China. However, ongoing isolation from a significant portion of the global financial system is taking a heavy toll on their gas sector, which is now significantly below pre-invasion levels. Efforts to redirect gas exports away from Europe are faltering due to a lack of infrastructure and pipelines to other regions. One of their few remaining strategies is to shift their gas exports almost entirely towards Asia.

Opinion: 

Russia is in a tough financial position with limited options. The ongoing war in Ukraine requires substantial funding, and turning towards Asia, particularly China, seems to be their main viable strategy. This would necessitate advancing talks with Xi Jinping about increasing supply through their Siberia pipelines. For Russia to recover the losses incurred over the past few years, this would need to happen quickly, alongside increased infrastructure funding for additional pipelines to China. Something they are also lacking. 

The problem for Putin is that he is backed into a corner when it comes to negotiation. 

China will demand low tariffs and discounted prices due to the value their consumership holds at this point in time. China’s gas sources are diverse and they can turn to many states for imports, they will leverage this and strike a hard bargain on Russia. 

Additionally, China’s significant investments and state focus on solar energy casts doubt on their willingness to purchase the capacity of natural gas Russia is trying to offload.

Historically, Being a gas export powerhouse and the main European provider was a point of Russian political strength and leverage on the continent. This advantage has now been exhausted and is unlikely to be regained in the foreseeable future. Their economic dependency on China becomes increasingly obvious, making Russia more exploitable in the future. 

As the world begins turning toward more renewable energy, and the costly war in Ukraine drags on; Russia’s economy appears to be on the brink of significant decline throughout the remainder of this decade.

6/18 International News

Putin just visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years and was all smiles with Kim Jong Un.

The two leaders signed a bold new agreement, which entails a requirement that if either country finds itself in a state of war,the other must provide immediate military assistance by any available means.

The summit between the two dictators has resulted in the new strongest point of bilateral relations between the two countries in decades. 

It is also very likely that Putin cozied up to Kim in order to receive more military weapons and ballistic missiles to aid his current war in Ukraine. Russia is using up their munitions fast and North Korea has a lot.  

Putin says he is fighting an ongoing war against the U.S. and its “imperialist hegemonic policy”

Fresh off this visit to North Korea, Putin just recently arrived in Vietnam for a visit highly condemned by the U.S. in order to prompt his ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Are the world’s leaders shaping up for a new Cold War? … The foreign policy developments of late might indicate this ever-increasing reality. 

Opinion: 

For Kim Jong Un, holding this summit is good for him as hosting a major world leader and signing a new military alliance with Russia decreases their diplomatic isolation from the international system. This increases his credibility within his own state, as well as breaking from their identity as a rogue state. This also comes amidst a time of increased tensions with South Korea as the two states go head to head with psychological warfare by means of sending air balloons full of poop to the South, and blaring anti-North Korean propaganda thorugh loudspeaker towards the North. 

Although sending shock signals throughout the West, this move is not unlike Putin. He has a track record of successfully stroking the egos of narcissistic leaders, as we saw with Trump, and otherwise gets on with most of the world’s dictatorial figures. Putin is a modern case of realpolitik, so a move like this where he creates a military alliance with one of the only other non-western nuclear powers makes sense in response to Western discourse surrounding deploying NATO troops to Ukraine. Putin is all in on conveying believability to NATO. He’s making his rounds to any states that he can get on his side and prove to NATO that if they keep pushing on this Ukraine issue, he is willing and ready to make it global war. Russia does not realistically have the capacity to fight NATO but Putin does have the diplomatic ability to demonstrate his resolve and truly test the West’s willingness to test global war over Ukraine.

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