7/11 – Proposed Policy & Diplomatic Analysis Piece

U.S. diplomats will soon meet their Iranian counterparts to discuss the ensuing Middle Eastern order. U.S. diplomats must be clear eyed regarding the state of Iran’s military, economy, and strategic position, and recognize that now is the time to deliver a final ultimatum to Iran. The Iranian regime is arguably in its weakest position since 1979, and the U.S. should capitalize on this weakness to ensure Iran never poses a serious threat to allies in the region and abroad. The U.S. should use both sticks and carrots in these diplomatic talks, but the sticks should be non-negotiable. Below is a proposed ultimatum prepared by one of our guest associate writers at IRinFive, outlining what they believe is a realistic proposal U.S. diplomats should follow ahead of talks with their Iranian counterparts.

To the Leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

The United States, in direct coordination with our allies and partners, offers you a clear and final path forward. This is a choice between isolation and direct confrontation, or integration and prosperity.

This ultimatum includes four non-negotiable conditions:

1) Total relinquishment of your nuclear weapons program including highly enriched Uranium, advanced centrifuges, and weaponization efforts. This will be verifiably checked by the IAEA, and there will be zero ambiguity. The U.S. and its allies will not tolerate the pursuit of nuclear weapons.

2) Cut all ties with regional proxies. This means an end to training, arming, and funding proxies across the region including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. These groups destabilize the Middle East, and fuel conflict in the region, it is time that this stops for good.

3) Immediately cease all military, industrial, and technological support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

4) Stop the development and deployment of your long range ballistic missile program. This program will be of no use if you abide by these four conditions, and its existence only causes chaos and uncertainty throughout the region.

In return, if the Islamic Republic of Iran abides by these four non-negotiables, the United States and its allies will offer full sanctions relief, and access to a civilian nuclear program under strict international safeguards, without the ability to further domestically enrich uranium. The U.S. will provide a security guarantee that ensures Israel will not strike you if you fully comply with the four non-negotiables. Lastly, your people and government will have a pathway to join the global economy, which would give them and your government the ability to build a future of prosperity, hope, and success.

Appendix:

Critics may say this ultimatum is not realistic and Iran will never agree to these conditions, but given the position it is in right now, they may well not have much of a choice. Israel has destroyed many of Iran’s advanced air defenses, leaving Israel with full air superiority over the country with little to no threats to its aircraft. Israel has also taken out many of the Iranian senior military officers and scientists, demonstrating a high degree of infiltration in Iran’s government.

China and Russia, Iran’s biggest international backers have shown zero interest in supporting Iran with additional military capabilities. Iran’s economy has long been devastated by sanctions which have triggered extremely high inflation and unemployment, leading to widespread poverty, and growing public discontent. Lastly Iran’s regional proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis were nowhere to be seen during Israel’s 12 day war against Iran. Israel has destroyed much of Hamas’ military capabilities, and leaders, with a devastating air and ground campaign. Israel also dismantled and destroyed Hezbollah as a capable fighting force, with an overwhelming display of technological wizardry, taking out thousands of Hezbollah fighters with exploding pagers and walkie talkies, while simultaneously neutralizing Hezbollah’s key leadership including the replacements of deceased leaders. Israel also heavily degraded Hezbollah’s rocket force with a powerful air and ground campaign. Syria under Assad, was used as a conduit to supply weapons from Iran to other proxies in the region. The destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon meant that it could not support the Assad regime in Syria which was actively being overthrown. With the fall of Assad, Syria, led by a new leader, is looking to shore up relations with Israel and the West, and Iran can no longer send weapons through Syria. This paints a sobering picture of Iran’s regional standing at this time.

American diplomats must recognize the strategic position the U.S. is currently in vis-à-vis Iran, and demand that failure to meet these conditions will result in a calibrated, and united response from the United States and its allies, with all options on the table. The regional balance of power has changed and now reflects a balance favoring the U.S. and its regional allies. The days of ambiguity are over. It is time this destructive regime changes its ways, or they will face a humiliating and destructive defeat. The choice is theirs.

– F.J.