5/28 – Geopolitical News & Foreign Policy Analysis

In a political career shaped by turbulence, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now stands at what may be his most consequential juncture. With Israeli forces massed on the borders of Gaza and fresh military operations underway, Netanyahu is weighing two divergent paths: a full-scale re-invasion of Gaza aimed at eradicating Hamas, or a ceasefire deal that could collapse his governing coalition but potentially salvage Israel’s waning influence in Washington and the broader region.

The decision will shape not only the future of Israel’s war in Gaza but also its standing with the United States, its regional relationships, and its long-term security doctrine. Each option carries enormous costs—and neither offers an easy way out.

On May 19, Netanyahu declared that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would soon “take control of all of Gaza,” signaling a deepening of military operations that have already claimed tens of thousands of lives. Israeli troops currently control approximately 30% of the 365-square-kilometer enclave and appear prepared to push further, targeting key urban centers such as Khan Younis.

The IDF has already issued evacuation orders for several densely populated areas, warning civilians of an “unprecedented attack” to come. In just the past week, the Israeli military has carried out over 100 airstrikes daily.

The humanitarian toll is already staggering. Since a previous ceasefire collapsed on March 18, over 5,000 additional Palestinians have reportedly been killed, pushing the total death toll past 50,000. Hunger and disease are spreading rapidly across the besieged strip, and the infrastructure is in ruins. The likely death of senior Hamas commander Mohammed Sinwar in a May 13 strike may mark a tactical gain—but offers little relief from the unfolding catastrophe.

Netanyahu’s government has framed the continued offensive as a strategic imperative. Yet the consequences extend far beyond Gaza’s borders.

Despite granting Israel operational latitude, the Trump administration is showing increasing signs of discomfort with Netanyahu’s war strategy. While President Trump continues to publicly place the burden on Hamas, behind closed doors his top advisers have urged Israel to de-escalate. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, has reportedly pressed Netanyahu to return to negotiations.

Vice President J.D. Vance cancelled a planned visit to Israel last week, in what is widely interpreted as a subtle rebuke of the renewed offensive. When asked about the cancellation, Vance offered only a vague commitment to visit Israel “in the future.”

The Biden-era unity between the U.S. and Israel has frayed significantly under Trump’s evolving Middle East doctrine. Netanyahu has been blindsided repeatedly—first by Trump’s decision to resume nuclear talks with Iran, then by a surprise announcement ending U.S. bombing campaigns against the Houthis in Yemen, despite ongoing missile attacks on Israel.

Further isolating Israel, Trump pointedly excluded the country from his recent Middle East tour, which featured high-profile visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Notably, Saudi normalization with Israel—once seen as imminent under the Abraham Accords—has now been shelved until the war in Gaza ends.

Perhaps most alarmingly for Jerusalem, Trump met last week with Syria’s new Islamist president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and announced the full lifting of U.S. sanctions on Damascus—despite Israeli objections. It is a vivid illustration of how Israel, even while it conducts operations in Gaza with relative impunity, is losing diplomatic leverage in real time.

There are signs that diplomacy remains on life support. American and Qatari envoys are working behind the scenes in Doha, pressing both Israeli and Hamas negotiators toward a new truce. Hamas recently released an American-Israeli dual citizen in a move interpreted as a goodwill gesture. Israel, in turn, agreed to temporarily allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, pausing a controversial plan for IDF-controlled aid distribution that critics warned could trigger mass starvation.

Netanyahu insists that nothing short of “total victory” is acceptable. But in reality, such an outcome appears elusive—and potentially ruinous.

Analysis:

Netanyahu’s current trajectory promises neither total victory nor strategic stability. While a military campaign may destroy Hamas’ visible infrastructure, it cannot uproot the deep political and social grievances that fuel its existence. Prolonging the war risks plunging Gaza into deeper chaos, intensifying civilian suffering, and eroding Israel’s moral and strategic standing.

Meanwhile, Israel’s diplomatic isolation is growing. Once the centerpiece of American foreign policy in the region, Netanyahu now finds himself out of sync with a U.S. administration that is charting a new course—one that includes re-engaging adversaries like Iran and Syria while fostering economic and political ties with Gulf states.

Netanyahu’s decision to stay the course militarily may satisfy hardliners within his coalition, but it jeopardizes Israel’s long-term regional integration. The window for normalization with Saudi Arabia is closing. Israeli security officials quietly acknowledge that military operations in Gaza can continue indefinitely but will never fully extinguish Hamas or its ideology.

A negotiated ceasefire, though politically dangerous for Netanyahu at home, offers a path back to regional diplomacy and a chance to repair ties with Washington. It would also relieve the immense humanitarian pressure building in Gaza. But seizing that path requires political courage—and a willingness to risk his government’s collapse.

For now, the prime minister has chosen war. But total victory seems more illusion than reality—and the longer it is pursued, the more likely it becomes that Israel finds itself militarily engaged, diplomatically marginalized, and morally compromised.