5/19 – International News & Geopolitics Analysis

The much-anticipated Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul fell apart last week in what was referred to as a diplomatic “nothingburger.” With Russian President Vladimir Putin refusing to attend and Ukraine signaling deep frustration, hopes for a breakthrough toward ending Europe’s largest war since World War II have all but evaporated.

Despite high-level representation from Kyiv, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top ministers and aides, the Russian side sent only a low-ranking delegation. The stark imbalance—and Putin’s no-show—prompted Trump to declare from Air Force One on May 16 that meaningful progress toward peace would only occur when he personally meets with the Russian leader.

“Nothing is going to happen until Putin and I sit down,” Trump told reporters during his flight to the United Arab Emirates. “Too many people are dying. It’s time we deal with it directly.”

Talks in Istanbul Unravel Before They Begin

The failed summit was supposed to revive stalled diplomatic efforts. Hopes were initially high after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, alongside Trump, convinced both Kyiv and Moscow to send delegations to Istanbul. Ukraine responded enthusiastically, with a high-ranking team led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, and Zelenskyy’s chief of staff.

But those expectations were swiftly dashed when it became clear that Russia would not be represented at a meaningful level. Putin remained in Moscow, sending what Ukrainian diplomats described as “Mr. Nobody” and other minor officials, signaling a lack of seriousness and leaving Ukrainian officials questioning the very premise of the talks.

Kyiv officials privately expressed frustration, calling the meeting a “charade” designed to buy Russia time on the battlefield rather than seek peace. Russia, they say, is again using the pretense of negotiation to stall Western unity and to continue its offensive, especially in Ukraine’s eastern regions.

After meeting with Erdoğan in Ankara, Zelenskyy announced that while he would not attend the talks in Istanbul due to Putin’s absence, he would allow a Ukrainian delegation to be present out of respect for Erdoğan and Trump. He himself will instead travel to the European Political Community summit in Tirana to galvanize support among European leaders.

The Kremlin’s approach to the Istanbul talks made clear it has not shifted from the hardline conditions it has insisted on since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian disarmament, a renunciation of NATO aspirations, and the institutional entrenchment of Russian language, Orthodox Church dominance, and cultural primacy in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov mocked Ukraine’s intentions, stating that any ceasefire would merely provide Kyiv time to rearm. Meanwhile, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 145 drones just days before the planned summit, injuring dozens and continuing their push in eastern regions, particularly toward the strategic city of Dnipro.

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov bluntly noted that talks without a real commitment from Moscow are little more than cover for Russia’s ongoing offensive. “They want to destroy our state,” he said, warning that Russian forces are positioning to launch another large-scale assault.

Trump: “Putin and I Have to Solve It”

Trump’s statement aboard Air Force One reframed the collapse of the Istanbul summit as a personal challenge that only he could resolve. Insisting that no genuine peace process is possible until he and Putin meet face-to-face, Trump effectively dismissed the Istanbul framework and placed himself at the center of the next phase of diplomacy.

While critics argue Trump is over-personalizing the conflict, his message clearly signals frustration with multilateral formats and slow-moving diplomatic efforts. Trump has long favored direct negotiations with world leaders, and his rhetoric suggests he is preparing for a possible high-stakes summit with Putin in the coming weeks.

However, this approach raises significant risks. By sidelining Ukraine and traditional allies in favor of one-on-one diplomacy, Trump may unintentionally empower Moscow to press even harder on the battlefield while hedging diplomatically. Some within the administration are reportedly wary of granting Putin a bilateral platform without firm preconditions.

With Putin absent from Istanbul and Trump floating a future summit, Ukraine is now focused on keeping the U.S. and Europe aligned behind a unified response. Zelenskyy has called for intensified sanctions against Russia and made clear that any peace must respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, rejecting the idea of recognizing any occupied territories as Russian.

Analysis:

The Istanbul collapse reveals much about the dynamics of the recent months of foreign policy: diplomacy is increasingly personalized, and multilateral frameworks are viewed as secondary to leader-to-leader interaction. Trump’s assertion that “nothing will happen until Putin and I meet” may reflect political showmanship, but it also underscores his belief in top-down problem-solving over institutional negotiation.

This style has produced moments of drama and, occasionally, breakthroughs—but it is also volatile. Relying on direct engagement with autocrats can marginalize allies, weaken leverage, and give bad-faith actors room to maneuver. In the case of Ukraine, the optics of Trump pursuing a summit with Putin while Russia bombs Ukrainian cities and stalls peace talks risks undermining Kyiv’s position.

Moreover, Trump’s track record on Russia remains controversial. While he insists he alone can achieve a deal, critics worry that his emphasis on resolution over accountability may lead to concessions that fail to deter future aggression or deliver meaningful security guarantees.

The Istanbul talks were meant to be a step toward ending the war in Ukraine. Instead, they ended before they began, highlighting how entrenched the conflict remains and how far apart the parties still are. With Moscow unwilling to compromise and Kyiv determined not to legitimize occupation, the road to peace appears as treacherous as ever.

Trump’s declaration that he and Putin must meet to resolve the crisis may inject new momentum—but only if it comes with a strategy that supports Ukraine, pressures Russia, and ensures that any eventual deal is more than just political theater. For now, the world watches as diplomacy stumbles, the battlefield grinds on, and the human toll continues to mount.