5/16 – Geopolitics and Diplomacy Analysis Piece

President Donald Trump’s second term is shaping up to be one of the most diplomatically active and unpredictable in modern American history. In the span of just two weeks, Trump has immersed himself in a dizzying array of global crises, brokering ceasefires, announcing bold policy shifts, striking massive investment deals, all while redefining America’s role in regions once shaped by military intervention and rigid alliances.

At the center of this sprawling campaign seems to lie a defining ambition to revolutionize not only America’s global relationships but also the very terms of engagement between nations. The question emerging, however, is whether Trump’s tactics—marked by sudden escalations, economic gambits, and headline-generating summits—are capable of delivering lasting stability or merely setting the stage for further volatility.

The Middle East Reboot

The most dramatic moment in Trump’s ongoing diplomatic offensive came on May 13, when he announced that the United States would lift all sanctions on Syria. Just 24 hours later, in Riyadh, he shook hands with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa—the former jihadist commander who toppled Bashar al-Assad in December and once had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head.

It was the first meeting between a sitting American president and a Syrian leader in 25 years. Though the meeting had been rumored for weeks, its timing—alongside an investment summit in the Saudi capital—underscored the extent to which Trump is reordering the Middle East’s power dynamics. Reinstating Syria’s financial access by rejoining SWIFT and opening the door for foreign investment, Trump cast the move as a chance to stabilize the country, promote economic recovery, and reduce Iran’s influence in Damascus.

The decision stunned Washington and drew immediate skepticism from within Trump’s own administration. Sharaa’s Islamist roots, shaky control of Syria’s fractured political system, and allegations of rising sectarian violence have all raised questions about whether the U.S. is moving too quickly to embrace an unproven leader. Minority groups inside Syria, particularly Alawites and Christians, have reported growing fears of extremist encroachment, vigilante justice, and exclusion from the country’s nascent political structures.

Still, for the Saudis and Turks—both of whom urged Trump to lift sanctions—the move was seen as long overdue. It provides a potential opportunity to pull Syria out of Iran’s orbit, unlock Western aid, and reestablish American leverage in a country long ceded to Russian and Iranian influence. Trump’s open praise for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suggests he views this Gulf tour as a broader effort to restore America’s rapport with regional powers frustrated during previous administrations.

Diplomacy in Overdrive

Syria is just one part of Trump’s sweeping diplomatic blitz. On May 6, he reached a tentative agreement with Yemen’s Houthis—after ordering a major bombing campaign that destroyed over 1,000 targets. On May 10, he claimed credit for defusing a potential nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan. His envoy has engaged Iranian officials in a fourth round of nuclear talks, while a 90-day tariff truce was declared with China on May 12 following months of escalating economic warfare.

Trump’s strategy leans heavily on economic incentives and tactical unpredictability. From brokering minerals deals with Ukraine to facilitating Saudi investments in American AI firms, he continues to treat foreign policy as an extension of his transactional business ethos. In meetings with Gulf leaders, he pitched diplomacy not as an ideological mission but as a marketplace of interests. “Let’s not trade nuclear missiles,” he told India and Pakistan. “Let’s trade.”

Yet, as critics point out, Trump’s deals could still fall short of comprehensive resolution. The truce with China addresses tariffs but not intellectual property theft, technology transfer, or supply chain decoupling. The ceasefire with the Houthis reportedly covers only U.S. naval traffic, leaving international shipping through the Suez Canal exposed. Iran talks are narrowly focused on uranium enrichment, with no mention of missile programs or proxy militias. A trade pact with Britain earlier in May was similarly thin, mostly symbolic.

Trump’s diplomacy can be narrowed down to a recurring cycle: provoke a crisis, escalate tensions to the brink, then reverse course with theatrical gestures of reconciliation. While the pattern sometimes produces breakthroughs, its inherent volatility leaves many arrangements fragile. Ceasefires are brief, deals are temporary, and deeper structural issues are often ignored.

Analysis:

There’s no question Trump has reenergized American diplomacy. His boldness, speed, and unorthodox style have shaken entrenched assumptions and opened doors previously closed. He has re-engaged actors like Syria, reasserted leverage in the Gulf, and pulled key regional players into talks once thought impossible.

But these early wins could mask deeper problems. Trump’s reluctance to serve as a guarantor of his own deals, his aversion to long-term enforcement, and his tendency to favor optics over implementation leave many initiatives vulnerable to collapse. His tactics generate volatility that not only unsettles adversaries but also makes allies wary and markets jumpy.

In Syria, Trump’s decision to lift sanctions is symbolically powerful—but if Sharaa’s regime fails to contain sectarian violence or alienates minorities, any progress could quickly unravel. In China, the tariff truce may ease economic tensions, but unresolved core disputes could reignite conflict in three months. In Ukraine, without robust military deterrence, even a 30-day ceasefire is unlikely to yield lasting peace.

Even Trump’s regional partnerships carry risks. By favoring Gulf autocrats and sidelining Israel, he may trigger unintended rifts, especially if normalization efforts falter or Iran reasserts influence through proxy networks.

Donald Trump’s second-term foreign policy is bold, frenetic, and deeply personal. It reflects a world in which old alliances are being reshaped by transactional logic, and diplomacy is driven by spectacle and short-term gain rather than doctrine or consensus.

In some ways, this approach has delivered as Trump has catalyzed negotiations, softened old rivalries, and made economic cooperation a focal point of global engagement. Yet without the institutional commitment and strategic depth to follow through, these gains remain precarious. Nevertheless, we can at least appreciate the drive and dedication Trump has taken on when it comes to engaging with the world’s biggest issues–-all just barely 100 days into his second term.