5/14 – International Relations & Diplomacy Analysis

President Donald Trump was greeted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on May 13 to launch a four-day Gulf tour centered on economic deals, defense cooperation, and regional diplomacy. Within hours, Saudi Arabia pledged $600 billion in trade and investment with the United States, including nearly $142 billion in defense purchases—touted by the U.S. as the largest arms deal in the history of the alliance.

The announcement set the tone for a visit focused less on ideology and more on business. With additional stops in Qatar and the UAE, the trip marks a shift in U.S. Middle East strategy to one that emphasizes commercial partnerships and pragmatic alliances over traditional security commitments.

This deal underscores the greater strategic realignment underway in the Gulf, one driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 agenda and Trump’s pursuit of business-first diplomacy.

Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia flanked by an entourage of elite American business leaders, including Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman. The presence of these figures—who joined Trump and MBS for high-level lunches and receptions—highlighted the deep economic interests now central to U.S.-Gulf relations.

Saudi Arabia, seeking to diversify its oil-dependent economy, is offering American firms stakes in futuristic projects such as NEOM, a planned $500 billion smart city, and other mega-developments. Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Falih emphasized that the relationship with the U.S. has outgrown its oil-and-security roots, now resting on a growing portfolio of private-sector joint ventures.

This convergence of economic interests comes as oil prices fluctuate and Riyadh faces budget constraints. Still, Saudi Arabia’s commitment to luring American capital and technology remains undeterred, offering Trump the opportunity to frame the trip as a job-creating win for the U.S. economy.

Beyond the investment fanfare, defense cooperation remains a cornerstone of the bilateral relationship. U.S. officials confirmed discussions over potential Saudi acquisition of advanced Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, although it remains unclear whether these aircraft are included in the initial arms package.

The defense commitments extend to broader U.S. regional posture, as Trump continues to offer military assistance to counter Iranian influence. While no stop in Israel is planned—raising eyebrows in Tel Aviv—Trump’s team argues that the arms deal and increased Gulf military capability enhance deterrence against Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Trump’s omission of Israel from his itinerary is particularly telling. Despite Israel’s long-standing position as America’s closest ally in the region, Trump appears to be recalibrating U.S. priorities away from the Netanyahu government, whose refusal to pause military operations in Gaza and opposition to a Palestinian state have frustrated both Gulf partners and Washington officials.

Gaza Ceasefire

Central to the Gulf trip’s undercurrent is Trump’s attempt to broker a ceasefire in Gaza. While official messaging frames the recent release of American-Israeli dual citizen Edan Alexander by Hamas as a goodwill gesture, regional diplomats believe it reflects a U.S. commitment to apply pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wind down the war.

Israel’s position in Trump’s current Middle East strategy appears diminished. Unlike the past, where normalization between Israel and Arab states was a primary U.S. goal, Trump’s latest moves suggest that formal ties between Riyadh and Tel Aviv are no longer a prerequisite for American cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Talks around a U.S.-Saudi nuclear agreement are reportedly moving ahead independently of Israeli considerations.

This pivot has not gone unnoticed in Israel. Officials have privately voiced concerns that Washington is sidelining them, particularly as Trump pursues backchannel diplomacy with Hamas and Iran, and has not invited Netanyahu for discussions during his Gulf tour.

A Regional Balancing Act

Trump’s Middle East strategy is not limited to investment and weapons. Quiet negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program are continuing, with U.S. and Iranian delegations meeting in Oman for their fourth round of talks. While Trump and his envoy, Steve Witkoff, appear at odds publicly—Trump has hesitated to rule out limited uranium enrichment, while Witkoff insists on a total ban—progress appears possible. Both sides described recent meetings as “encouraging” and “difficult but useful,” with a fifth round scheduled.

The Gulf states, once opposed to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, now support the push for a new accord, driven by a desire for regional stability and economic certainty. Trump’s position has evolved too—less focused on maximum pressure and more open to conditional diplomacy.

Meanwhile, in Syria, President Donald Trump has formally lifted U.S. sanctions and confirmed that he will meet with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, marking a major shift in American policy toward Damascus. Sharaa, who assumed power after Bashar al-Assad’s ousting in December, has offered Washington a sweeping proposal that includes peace with Israel, energy concessions to U.S. firms, and full diplomatic normalization in return for economic relief.

After weeks of deliberation and pressure from key regional allies—particularly Saudi Arabia and Turkey—Trump announced on May 13 that the U.S. would remove economic sanctions on Syria “effective immediately” to support what he described as a “new era of opportunity and cooperation.” The upcoming meeting between Trump and Sharaa, expected to take place in Riyadh during the final leg of the president’s Gulf tour, is seen as a potentially historic opening between the two nations after more than a decade of diplomatic rupture.

Analysis:

Trump’s Gulf tour signals a major evolution in American policy in the Middle East. Gone is the singular focus on counterterrorism or ideological alignment. In its place comes transactional diplomacy, economic cooperation, and a flexible approach to long-standing alliances.

The massive investment pledge—though unlikely to materialize in full—is politically valuable for Trump, who can tout it as evidence of his “America First” strategy delivering results. But beneath the business optics lies a deeper message: the U.S. is broadening its network of partnerships beyond Israel, willing to engage adversaries like Iran and uncertain players like Syria, if it serves core American interests.

For Gulf states, the shift is welcome. The region’s monarchs see in Trump a leader receptive to their strategic needs and economic ambitions. For Israel, the moment is sobering. With the Gaza war unresolved and diplomatic overtures falling flat, Netanyahu finds himself increasingly isolated.

While concrete breakthroughs on Gaza, Iran, or Syria remain elusive, the trip may mark a turning point in U.S. foreign policy—one in which strategic flexibility, economic leverage, and regional realignment eclipse rigid alliances and ideological doctrine. If Trump can translate the momentum into lasting agreements, his Gulf gambit may be remembered for redrawing the map of American influence in the Middle East.