3/24 – International News & Political Analysis

In a dramatic display of political repression, Turkey has taken a decisive turn into deeper outright autocracy with the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. The move marks a turning point for the country’s opposition and signals President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s unrelenting grip on power, as he consolidates control over both the government and civil institutions.

Erdoğan’s Consolidation of Power

On Sunday, Turkish authorities formally arrested İmamoğlu on corruption charges, removing him from office as the mayor of Istanbul—the country’s largest city and a key symbolic and political stronghold. His detention follows years of rising popularity, which positioned him as the main contender to challenge Erdoğan in the next presidential election, currently scheduled for 2028.

İmamoğlu’s arrest occurred on the very day he was widely expected to be confirmed as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate for the presidency. Although the party’s primary proceeded in his absence—with millions of citizens participating despite his being the sole candidate—he now faces the grim prospect of months or even years in prison as he awaits trial.

Adding to the political drama, authorities revoked İmamoğlu’s university diploma a day before his arrest. Turkish law requires presidential candidates to hold a university degree, and the timing of the revocation has been widely interpreted as an attempt to disqualify him from running. The opposition, along with international observers, has dismissed the move as a calculated effort to dismantle any credible challenge to Erdoğan’s rule.

İmamoğlu has been accused of a wide array of crimes, ranging from corruption and bribery to unlawful data collection and even aiding a terrorist organization—a veiled reference to alleged connections with pro-Kurdish groups. While the judiciary has yet to reach a definitive verdict on these claims, their sudden emergence on the eve of the CHP primary has fueled suspicions of political motivation.

The arrest of İmamoğlu is part of a broader sweep targeting over 100 individuals, including local officials, businessmen, and journalists. These moves suggest a systematic effort by Erdoğan’s government to dismantle opposition infrastructure ahead of any future elections. Investigations have even targeted municipal initiatives such as nurseries established by the Istanbul city government.

Erdoğan has framed the protests following İmamoğlu’s arrest as “street terror,” warning that the CHP and its supporters would be held accountable for any unrest or damage. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya echoed the claim, stating that over 1,100 people had been detained during the demonstrations, including 10 journalists, while more than 120 police officers had been injured.

Protests and Public Response

Despite a sweeping ban on public gatherings, hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets across Turkey in what has become the most widespread protest movement in over a decade. From Istanbul to Erdoğan’s own hometown of Rize, demonstrators defied police crackdowns, water cannons, and tear gas.

İmamoğlu, even from detention, urged citizens to continue the fight for democracy, calling on all 86 million Turks to turn out for the CHP primary and stand against tyranny. His defiance has only further galvanized supporters, who see his arrest as the culmination of Erdoğan’s long-standing effort to eliminate any real political opposition.

The CHP has accused Erdoğan not only of targeting their most promising candidate but of plotting to seize control of the party itself. In response, CHP Chairman Özgür Özel announced an extraordinary party congress aimed at preventing the government from appointing a trustee to lead the party, a tactic previously used against pro-Kurdish parties.

A New Political Reality

According to scholars and political analysts, Turkey has now officially crossed the threshold from “competitive authoritarianism” to full-fledged autocracy. Previously, opposition parties could still participate in elections, albeit under severe constraints and with the playing field heavily tilted in Erdoğan’s favor. The jailing of İmamoğlu—a politician who has repeatedly beaten Erdoğan’s candidates in Istanbul and who appeals to both secular and conservative voters—suggests that Erdoğan will no longer tolerate even the semblance of electoral threat.

The political upheaval has triggered immediate economic consequences. Following İmamoğlu’s arrest, Turkey’s stock market plunged by over 16%, its steepest fall since the global financial crisis of 2008. To stem the bleeding, the central bank is estimated to have spent $26 billion in foreign reserves in just a few days. The Turkish lira remains under intense pressure, and investor confidence has sharply deteriorated.

Erdoğan has tried to reassure markets by pledging macroeconomic stability and highlighting coordination among key financial institutions. But analysts warn that the political uncertainty may overshadow any technical fixes.

What is perhaps more telling is the international response—or lack thereof. European and American leaders have been largely muted. As Erdoğan continues courting global powers, especially amid discussions over Ukraine and regional security, Western democracies appear reluctant to challenge him. Some suggest that Erdoğan’s authoritarian shift has been emboldened by a broader global trend toward illiberalism, with autocratic leaders observing one another and taking cues.

As a controversial NATO member and one of the largest national armies within it, Turkey is an important regional force in a very tense time for Russia-NATO relations. The geopolitical climate, therefore, offers Erdoğan a window of opportunity to act with impunity.

Analysis:

Erdoğan’s calculated removal of İmamoğlu signifies more than just a crackdown on a rival—it represents a broader and deliberate dismantling of democratic institutions in Turkey. It is no coincidence that this move targets the party founded by Atatürk, the secular father of modern Turkey. In seeking to neutralize the CHP and its most charismatic leader, Erdoğan appears intent on erasing the remaining vestiges of Turkey’s secular democratic legacy.

This shift also reflects a growing trend among global strongmen, many of whom are now shedding even the minimal constraints of democratic facades. Erdoğan’s aggressive strategy—revoking academic credentials, fabricating charges, throttling social media, detaining journalists, and repressing dissent—demonstrates a playbook perfected over decades, now unleashed with the full backing of state apparatus.

Erdoğan’s jailing of Ekrem İmamoğlu draws a stark and troubling parallel to Vladimir Putin’s long-standing tactics against political opposition, most notably in the case of Alexei Navalny. Like Navalny, İmamoğlu emerged as a charismatic and credible challenger to an entrenched authoritarian leader, gaining mass support despite relentless state pressure. Both men faced a barrage of legal investigations, criminal charges widely seen as fabricated, and deliberate disqualification efforts—Navalny through trumped-up fraud charges and eventual imprisonment, İmamoğlu via sudden corruption accusations and the revocation of his university diploma.

While İmamoğlu’s fate remains uncertain, Navalny’s tragic death in a Russian prison underscores the extreme lengths to which autocrats may go to silence dissent. Erdoğan, like Putin, has weaponized the judiciary and media, framing legitimate opposition as criminal or even terrorist threats. The eerie similarities between their strategies—erasing political challengers under the guise of law and order—highlight a growing global pattern: the shift from soft authoritarianism to overt political repression, where electoral rivals are not just defeated at the ballot box but systematically erased from public life.

What makes the situation in Turkey particularly tragic is the hope that İmamoğlu had inspired. He represented a new political center—secular yet accessible to conservatives, urban yet grounded in Turkey’s heartland, charismatic yet pragmatic. His repeated electoral victories, despite systemic sabotage, symbolized that democratic renewal was possible.

By removing him from the political equation, Erdoğan hasn’t just jailed a man—he has imprisoned the hope of millions who believed in a different future for Turkey. He has made his move and with Turkey’s judiciary, media, and security forces firmly under his control, the road back to democracy appears longer than ever. The question no longer seems to be whether Erdoğan is dismantling Turkey’s democracy—it is how far he is willing to go, and who, if anyone, will stop him.