3/22 – International News & Security Updates

Securing the Invisible Lifelines of the Modern World

Recent incidents of sabotage against undersea cables in the Baltic and Red Seas, along with potential interference near Taiwan, underscore the growing strategic vulnerability of global undersea infrastructure. These cables, owned increasingly by U.S. firms such as Meta and Google, underpin not only global financial transactions—amounting to over $10 trillion daily—but also critical military communications. The emergence of hybrid threats from Russia, China, and non-state actors signals a shift toward potential undersea conflict targeting this “soft underbelly” of American and Western power. Russia’s aggressive seabed strategy, evidenced by submarine operations and shadow fleet activities, is particularly concerning. Meanwhile, China’s direct threat may be limited by economic interdependence, but its involvement in incidents tied to Russia illustrates a complex and evolving risk landscape.

Emerging technologies such as undersea robotics, AI-driven detection, and SMART cables complicate both offensive and defensive dynamics. While these tools offer enhanced monitoring and resilience capabilities, they also increase the potential for espionage and sabotage. Moreover, strategic competition now extends beyond data cables to the growing seabed energy grid and future rare earth mining. As the seabed becomes more commercially and militarily contested, the stakes for protecting undersea infrastructure rise significantly.

A durable response requires strengthening deterrence on three fronts. First, resilience must improve through rapid repair capabilities and data rerouting to minimize the impact of disruptions. Second, “deterrence by detection” must be advanced using modern sensing technologies to eliminate plausible deniability for bad actors. Third, the U.S. and allies should retain the capacity for covert countermeasures to respond when adversaries violate norms. Clear leadership is needed within the U.S. government, with the National Security Council empowered to coordinate federal, military, and intelligence efforts.

International cooperation is equally critical. No single nation can protect the global undersea network of cables and infrastructure spanning over 180 countries. A coalition of like-minded partners—leveraging forums like the G7 and institutions such as the International Maritime Organization—should prioritize investment in resilience, detection, and accountability. Time is of the essence: the West holds a potential first-mover advantage in undersea technologies, but adversaries are moving quickly. Proactive engagement is necessary to secure this vital domain before vulnerabilities are further exploited.

Diplomacy in the Crosshairs as Russia and Ukraine Circle Ceasefire

This week, Russia and Ukraine will engage in indirect, U.S.-mediated talks in Saudi Arabia, aimed primarily at securing a limited ceasefire in the Black Sea. Both sides remain far apart, with negotiators confined to separate rooms and messages relayed by intermediaries — a reflection of the deep mistrust still defining the conflict. Russia has signaled willingness to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, a tactical shift aligning with seasonal changes in its military strategy, while Ukraine continues to call for a comprehensive ceasefire. Still, Russia’s broader demands — including ending Western military aid and Ukraine abandoning NATO ambitions — remain unchanged.

The Black Sea ceasefire talks also touch on resuming grain shipments, a critical economic concern for Ukraine after Russia suspended the previous agreement. Moscow is keen to negotiate here, as Kyiv’s use of naval drones has diminished Russia’s strategic advantage in the region. Meanwhile, Ukraine remains skeptical, citing past Russian sabotage and calling for international — ideally American — observers to ensure compliance.

The United States faces questions over its leverage with Moscow. Sanctions have dented but not halted Russia’s war effort, and Trump’s administration has floated the possibility of lifting some measures as part of a broader agreement — raising concerns about weakening U.S. bargaining power. Meanwhile, Europe is seeking to strengthen its own role, proposing billions in defense spending to reduce reliance on Washington. With the war grinding on, the talks in Saudi Arabia represent a fragile opportunity, but any sustainable agreement will require tough diplomacy, credible enforcement mechanisms, and a unified Western strategy.

Rising Tensions in the Middle East as the US Expands Military Presence

In response to escalating conflict across the Middle East, the United States is deploying a second aircraft carrier group—the USS Carl Vinson—to the region to strengthen its military posture and ensure a sustained presence. This move follows the breakdown of the Gaza cease-fire, renewed Israeli airstrikes on Hamas, and a surge in Houthi missile attacks from Yemen. The Houthis, backed by Iran, resumed their aggression by targeting Israel, prompting ongoing U.S. airstrikes. President Trump has vowed to intensify operations against the Houthis and warned Iran of consequences for supporting these attacks.

Simultaneously, tensions have resurfaced along Israel’s northern border, where militants in Lebanon launched rockets into Israel for the first time in months. Israel retaliated with targeted strikes against Hezbollah positions, though the group denied involvement. Israeli officials reinforced that Lebanon bears responsibility for any attacks from its territory. Lebanon’s leadership and the United Nations peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, issued urgent calls to prevent further escalation and a slide into wider war.

The recent collapse of the Gaza cease-fire has reactivated multiple fronts, raising the risk of regional conflict expansion. Israel’s military operations in Gaza intensified after Hamas refused to release remaining hostages, while Hezbollah and other militant groups increased their activities in solidarity with Gaza. With U.S. forces bolstering their presence, the situation underscores a growing international concern over the Middle East’s destabilization and the potential for broader confrontation.

Congo Offers Trump a Mineral Deal in Exchange for Military Support

In a bold move to secure critical resources for U.S. high-tech industries, Félix Tshisekedi, the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has proposed a deal to President Trump. The offer, made in a February letter, outlines a potential partnership: in exchange for U.S. support in defeating the M23 rebel group, which is backed by Rwanda and is destabilizing the mineral-rich eastern DRC, the U.S. would gain access to key minerals like cobalt, lithium, copper, and tantalum—critical for technology companies such as Apple, Tesla, and Intel.

The DRC’s proposal aligns with Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, where access to natural resources is seen as essential for strengthening America’s global competitiveness in industries like aerospace, automotive, and artificial intelligence. The DRC’s vast mineral reserves, especially cobalt and lithium, have become increasingly crucial in the global race for resources used in smartphones, laptops, and electric vehicles. Tshisekedi has further indicated that such a partnership would benefit both nations by allowing American companies to buy minerals directly from the DRC.

Alongside this, Tshisekedi is reportedly in negotiations with Erik Prince, a Trump ally and founder of the private military company formerly known as Blackwater, to help secure Congo’s mining revenue and enforce tax collection. While discussions are ongoing, the Congolese government is actively seeking U.S. assistance to curb the flow of “blood minerals” from the region, particularly via Rwanda, which has been accused of smuggling Congolese minerals.