February 24, 2025 – International News & Geostrategic Security Developments

Zelensky Rejects Trump’s Mineral Deal & Demands Better Terms

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pushing back against the Trump administration’s demands for preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral reserves—including titanium, lithium, and rare earths—as a form of repayment for U.S. aid. Speaking ahead of the three-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Zelensky criticized the current terms as financially crippling and called for security guarantees alongside any deal. The disagreement has escalated into a heated exchange between Zelensky and Trump, with Trump calling Zelensky a dictator and Zelensky accusing Trump of being misinformed. Despite tensions, aides from both sides have been working to salvage a deal.

The Trump administration has defended its proposal, with National Security Adviser Mike Waltz arguing that the U.S. should receive an economic return on its investment in Ukraine’s defense. The minerals dispute has also fueled broader disagreements on how to end the war, with Trump engaging in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin while sidelining Ukraine. Trump has also criticized Zelensky for postponing presidential elections due to martial law, while Zelensky maintains that holding an election under current conditions is impossible.

When asked if he would step down to secure peace or NATO membership for Ukraine, Zelensky said he was open to the idea if it truly benefited his country. However, NATO membership remains a point of contention, with the Trump administration and some European allies opposing Ukraine’s fast-tracked entry.

Europe’s Peace Plan: Can It Succeed Without U.S. Troops?

European leaders, led by Britain and France, are drafting a plan to send up to 30,000 peacekeepers to Ukraine if a cease-fire is reached with Russia. However, the success of this proposal depends on securing U.S. involvement as a “backstop” to provide critical military support and deter potential Russian aggression. The plan doesn’t call for American troops in Ukraine but would rely on U.S. air-defense systems, intelligence, and logistics. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are set to discuss the proposal with Trump, who has been hesitant to engage due to his interest in improving relations with Russia.

Trump’s reluctance presents a major challenge, as European leaders see U.S. backing as essential for the mission’s credibility and effectiveness. European forces have weakened over the years, and key NATO members lack the military capabilities needed to sustain such a force without American assistance. The peacekeepers wouldn’t be stationed on the front lines but would focus on securing infrastructure, cities, and ports, with drones and satellites monitoring Russian compliance with the cease-fire. Meanwhile, some U.S. officials have pushed for Ukraine to grant mineral rights to Washington as part of any peace deal, further complicating negotiations.

The European proposal reflects a broader effort to shift responsibility for Ukraine’s security from the U.S. to European nations. However, divisions remain, with Poland, a strong Ukraine ally, declining to send troops. Some experts question whether a European-led force, even with U.S. assistance, would be sufficient to deter Russia. The Biden administration had previously welcomed the idea of a peacekeeping force without U.S. troops, but Trump’s stance remains uncertain. European leaders, particularly Starmer and Macron, are determined to secure a commitment from Washington, recognizing that without U.S. backing, the plan faces significant hurdles.

Israel Freezes Prisoner Release Over Hamas’ Theatrics

Israel has halted the release of Palestinian prisoners, accusing Hamas of using hostage handovers as propaganda. The decision follows staged public ceremonies in which Israeli hostages were forced to wave to crowds, with one kissing militants. Hamas denies any mistreatment, calling the events dignified, but Israel insists such displays violate their cease-fire agreement.

Under the truce, Israel was set to free over 600 Palestinian prisoners, but families in the West Bank were left waiting when the release was postponed. Tensions escalated further when Hamas presented coffins containing hostage remains in a public spectacle, later revealing that one coffin did not hold the expected body. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the incidents, emphasizing Israel’s resolve to continue military action if necessary.

With no more living hostages set for release until the next phase of negotiations, the fragile cease-fire hangs in the balance. Netanyahu reaffirmed that Israel’s ultimate goal remains the destruction of Hamas’s rule, whether through diplomacy or force.

China’s Naval Drills Near Australia Spark Tensions

China’s navy conducted live-fire drills off Australia’s eastern coast, forcing commercial flights to reroute and sparking concern from Australian and New Zealand officials. While Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles acknowledged the Chinese vessels were operating legally in international waters, he criticized the lack of transparency regarding the exercises. New Zealand’s Defense Minister Judith Collins called the drills a wake-up call, emphasizing they were the most sophisticated Chinese naval exercises ever seen so far south. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong also raised concerns with her Chinese counterpart, urging “safe and professional” military behavior.

China’s growing naval presence has been causing tension globally, with recent close encounters between Chinese and Australian military forces in the South China Sea. In one incident, a Chinese fighter jet deployed flares near an Australian surveillance plane, and in another, a Chinese warship allegedly used a high-powered laser against an Australian aircraft. These latest drills highlight China’s ability to project power far from home, mirroring how the U.S. and its allies operate in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, Australia and China resumed military talks in Beijing after a four-year pause, reflecting efforts to manage these rising tensions through diplomacy.

Trump’s Russia Talks Brew Anxiety Among America’s Asian Allies

The Trump administration’s decision to push forward with peace talks with Russia over the Ukraine war has sparked concern among U.S. allies in Asia, who fear Washington’s commitment to their security may waver. The negotiations, initiated after a call between Trump and Putin, notably excluded Ukraine and European allies, raising alarms about the potential impact on global security. While Asian allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines publicly express confidence in U.S. support, there is underlying anxiety that Trump may seek a deal with China or overlook North Korea’s nuclear threat.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reassured allies that the U.S. remains committed to deterring China, arguing that shifting resources from Europe to Asia is necessary to maintain stability in the Pacific. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials prioritized calls to Asian leaders, and Trump has hosted leaders from India and Japan to reinforce military cooperation. Taiwan’s National Security Council head Joseph Wu affirmed that U.S. support for Taiwan remains strong, despite China’s growing military pressure on the self-governing island.

The Philippines has also received reassurances, with Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo highlighting continued U.S. backing at the Munich Security Conference. Manila has deepened military ties with Washington, allowing U.S. forces greater access to bases and expanded defense infrastructure. Under a decades-old treaty, the U.S. is committed to Taiwan’s defense, but concerns linger that Trump’s diplomatic maneuvering with Russia could signal broader shifts in American foreign policy.

– F.J.