February 19, 2025 – Top Geopolitical News & Geostrategic Security Developments

U.S. and Russia Open New Chapter in Ukraine Talks

The U.S. and Russia have agreed to set up high-level teams to explore ways to end the war in Ukraine following talks in Riyadh—the first major meeting between the two nations since Russia’s 2022 invasion. While no formal summit between Trump and Putin was announced, U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasized that Ukraine would remain central to the discussions. The U.S. and Russia also agreed to restore embassy staffing and explore potential economic and diplomatic cooperation if the war de-escalates. However, Russia has made clear it will not make territorial concessions, and European allies were notably excluded from these initial talks, raising concerns about a shift in Western foreign policy.

The Trump administration’s fast-paced diplomatic approach has sparked unease among European leaders, who worry that the U.S. is engaging Russia without first coordinating with allies. Critics argue that past negotiations, such as the Minsk-2 accords brokered by European nations, failed; however, bypassing Europe entirely could further strain transatlantic ties. The administration insists these talks are exploratory rather than formal negotiations, though some officials warn that enthusiasm for improved U.S.-Russia relations must not come at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Meanwhile, proposals for European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, backed by U.S. logistical support, have been floated but swiftly rejected by Russia. Analysts caution that while diplomacy is necessary, the U.S. must remain firm in standing up to Russian aggression. The success of this new approach remains uncertain, with many watching to see whether it will lead to meaningful progress or merely serve as a geopolitical maneuver without real results.

America’s Demand for Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth

The U.S. made a blunt demand for control over Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals, presenting President Volodymyr Zelensky with an ultimatum to hand over the country’s mineral wealth as a form of repayment for military aid. Zelensky refused to agree immediately and deferred negotiations to the Munich Security Conference, where the U.S. again pressured Ukraine to pledge $500 billion worth of resources. While Ukraine is open to partnerships, Zelensky emphasized that security guarantees must come first. His original plan, pitched to both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, proposed trading mineral access for military support, but while Biden dismissed it, Trump appeared interested—though seemingly only in the resource aspect.

Ukraine sits on vast reserves of minerals crucial for high-tech manufacturing, including titanium and lithium, which could help the U.S. reduce reliance on China and Russia. However, mining these resources is complex due to outdated surveys, oligarch interests, and unclear Ukrainian laws regarding foreign control of natural resources. While a potential deal could take years to materialize, some Ukrainian officials believe American investment in mineral extraction could ultimately strengthen Ukraine’s security. Even if Zelensky agrees to Trump’s demands, it’s uncertain how quickly the U.S. would benefit, as new mining projects require long-term commitment and infrastructure.

Taiwan’s Uncertain Future: Can It Become the Next Ukraine?

Taiwan is increasingly worried that it could become the next Ukraine as global security priorities shift. While European leaders fear America’s retreat from Ukraine, Taiwan sees a troubling parallel—if the U.S. abandons one ally, it might abandon another. For years, Taiwanese leaders have argued that stopping Russia in Ukraine is crucial to deterring China. Now, with Trump’s unpredictability and a possible shift in U.S. foreign policy, concerns are growing that Taiwan could be left vulnerable. Some in Taiwan warn that clinging to America might turn the island into an “abandoned chess piece” in the great power struggle between Washington and Beijing.

China’s military pressure on Taiwan is only intensifying, with large-scale war games seen as rehearsals for invasion. U.S. military leaders are alarmed, warning that America’s stockpiles of weapons are running low and that China, along with Russia and North Korea, is forming a dangerous axis of power. Strengthening alliances and increasing military readiness in the Pacific have become top priorities. However, there is concern that Trump’s focus on reducing European commitments could weaken U.S. credibility globally, including in Asia.

With America’s resources stretched, Taiwan’s future remains uncertain. While Trump’s policies suggest a pivot to the Indo-Pacific, there are no guarantees of stronger U.S. support. If Washington prioritizes its own interests over defending allies, Taiwan may have to prepare for the possibility that, much like Ukraine, it could one day face a powerful adversary alone.

Israel’s Lingering Post-Truce Presence in Lebanon

Israel has withdrawn its troops from towns in southern Lebanon but remains in five strategic positions along the border, as the deadline for both Israel and Hezbollah to withdraw has passed. This ongoing presence risks disrupting the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which ended a deadly war in November. Under the ceasefire agreement, both sides were supposed to withdraw, with the Lebanese military replacing them. However, delays have kept displaced Lebanese citizens from returning to their homes, and the United Nations has criticized Israel for not fully withdrawing from southern Lebanon.

Despite the U.N. peacekeeping force and U.S.-led monitoring committee praising the Lebanese military’s deployment, the situation remains tense. Israel’s temporary stay in southern Lebanon has been opposed by Hezbollah’s leader, though he stopped short of threatening to escalate violence. Lebanon’s government has appealed to regional allies for support, but experts believe Hezbollah may grow stronger if Israel stays long-term, as it could use the continued presence to justify armed resistance.

While the Lebanese military has warned civilians not to return until it has fully deployed, the situation is complicated by accusations from Lebanon’s military that Israel is destroying homes in the region. These actions are said to target Hezbollah infrastructure but have devastated civilian areas. Local residents, like Yara Awada, have expressed heartbreak over the loss of their homes and communities, but remain hopeful of rebuilding despite the destruction.

CIA Takes Aim at Cartels: Trump’s Plan for a New War on Drugs

Under President Trump, the CIA is gearing up for a larger role in combating Mexican drug cartels, particularly those smuggling fentanyl and other drugs into the U.S. CIA Director John Ratcliffe plans to apply counterterrorism techniques to narcotics operations, including sharing intelligence and training local counternarcotics units. While there’s debate over whether this could involve direct U.S. military or CIA action against cartel leaders, many experts warn it could harm U.S.-Mexico relations and not lead to quick results. Trump’s push for a more aggressive strategy has included increased surveillance and the potential designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. However, this idea has raised concerns about possible U.S. military intervention in Mexico.

Despite the CIA’s growing focus on the cartels, experts stress that drug interdiction needs to be paired with broader efforts, such as economic development and institution-building, to succeed. Trump’s hardline approach contrasts with past U.S. strategies that involved working with local forces in places like Colombia. However, any significant U.S. military or law enforcement presence in Mexico could provoke backlash due to historical tensions. While intelligence-sharing has led to successful operations, like targeting the Sinaloa cartel, experts caution that quick fixes won’t solve the complex drug trade issue. Overall, the U.S. is intensifying its efforts to tackle the drug crisis, but balancing intelligence, diplomacy, and cooperation with Mexico remains a challenge. The Trump administration’s push for more direct action is facing scrutiny from former officials who worry about long-term effectiveness and the potential for diplomatic fallout.

– F.J.