January 22, 2025 – Top Geopolitical Events & Security Developments1

Seizing Diplomatic Gambits in a Tense World

President Biden and his national security team claim they are leaving behind a world where the U.S. has the upper hand against key adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran. They argue that Russia is weakened by its prolonged conflict in Ukraine, China faces economic and demographic challenges, and Iran is losing influence in the Middle East. However, this optimism is contrasted with Trump’s team, which blames the Biden administration for setbacks like the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal and insufficient action against China and Iran. Trump’s administration is poised to address these global challenges, but his unconventional style raises uncertainties.

Potential opportunities for Trump include negotiating a Ukraine ceasefire, with the possibility of Russia retaining occupied territories under an armistice-style agreement. Trump must also navigate Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with a choice between reviving the “maximum pressure” campaign or risking conflict if allies like Israel push for military action. In the Middle East, Trump could expand the Abraham Accords by normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but this requires balancing conflicting interests among his advisors and allies.

China remains a central challenge, with tensions over Taiwan, the TikTok controversy, and strategic competition in artificial intelligence. The growing partnership between China and Russia poses broader geopolitical risks. Decisions about technological restrictions and security will test Trump’s ability to navigate these complex issues, potentially defining U.S. foreign policy for years to come.

Europe’s Fight for Unity in the Face of Russian Aggression

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged European leaders to stand united against Russia as President Donald Trump begins his second term. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Zelensky emphasized that Europe must take charge of its own security, especially as Trump’s skepticism toward global alliances and aid to Ukraine creates uncertainty. He warned that Europe’s proximity to Russia makes it vulnerable to aggression and called for stronger European involvement in securing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. Zelensky also highlighted the importance of NATO membership and military support for Ukraine to deter further Russian advances.

Zelensky painted a stark picture of the challenges Europe faces if Russia achieves its goals of weakening Ukraine. He pointed out that despite its smaller economy, Russia outproduces Europe in weapons and can field a far larger military. He also noted emerging alliances between Russia, Iran, and North Korea, which he warned threaten both Europe and the United States. Zelensky stressed that only with strong security guarantees—including NATO membership, long-range weapons, and allied troops in Ukraine—can Europe prevent Russian aggression from destabilizing the continent.

Zelensky expressed hope that Trump will recognize the importance of combating nations seeking to undermine Western power. However, he urged European leaders to amplify their voices to ensure Trump grasps the risks of inaction. Without united action, Zelensky warned, Russia’s authoritarian vision could reshape Europe, endangering both regional and global stability.

The Mystery of Undersea Cable Breaks and the Shadow of Suspicion

Recent investigations into undersea cable damage in Europe suggest that maritime accidents, rather than Russian sabotage, are the likely cause. U.S. and European intelligence officials have found no evidence linking Russia to incidents involving severed energy and communication cables, despite initial suspicions of hybrid warfare. Instead, investigations point to inexperienced crews on poorly maintained ships as the culprits, with incidents such as anchor-dragging causing the damage. This conclusion contrasts with earlier assertions that Russia was deliberately targeting seabed infrastructure to destabilize Europe amidst broader tensions over Ukraine.

While critics argue that the accidents fit a pattern of Russian aggression, including arson and cyberattacks, evidence supporting intentional sabotage remains thin. Cases like Finland’s seizure of the tanker Eagle S, accused of damaging a power line, and earlier incidents involving Chinese and Hong Kong-registered ships, have raised questions about vessel behavior but failed to provide definitive proof of deliberate acts. Experts acknowledge that proving intentional sabotage is difficult, though some anomalies in ship activity continue to fuel skepticism.

NATO has stepped up surveillance and patrols in response to these incidents, reflecting ongoing concerns about undersea vulnerabilities. However, the lack of concrete evidence against Russia raises questions about the strategic risks Moscow would face by targeting critical infrastructure in NATO waters. Investigations remain ongoing, and while accidents appear the most plausible explanation, officials caution that fully ruling out Russian involvement may be impossible.

Hamas Resurfaces as Gaza’s Unyielding Power

After the recent cease-fire in Gaza, Hamas has reasserted its control in the territory, signaling its dominance despite Israeli attempts to dismantle the group. Hamas deployed armed forces, held parades, and resumed law enforcement roles, even escorting aid deliveries alongside the UN. This showcases the group’s authority, especially in a region where lawlessness had taken hold during the war. The truce, brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S., includes provisions for monitoring Hamas forces, increasing aid, and ensuring civilian movement. However, Israel remains committed to dismantling Hamas and opposes any long-term governance by the group.

The war has devastated Gaza, displacing 90% of its population and killing tens of thousands. While Hamas maintains control, the Palestinian Authority has expressed willingness to govern Gaza, though it remains unpopular. Proposed governance solutions include multinational forces or PA leadership, but no consensus exists. Despite internal and external pressures, Hamas still has a significant military presence, even as Israeli forces claim to have dealt heavy losses to its fighters.

With the region’s future governance unresolved, tensions remain high. Hamas’s monopoly on power raises concerns for lasting peace, while Israel’s objectives of removing Hamas and securing stability remain unmet. The current situation underscores the complexity of rebuilding Gaza and establishing lasting order.

AI, Drones, and the Future of Warfare: The Tech Revolution Reshaping Defense

A quiet revolution is transforming the way wars are fought, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and autonomous technologies. Defense start-ups like Anduril Industries are leading this charge, envisioning a future where swarms of affordable drones and AI-powered systems replace costly, traditional military hardware. These technologies promise to make warfare smarter, cheaper, and more efficient while redefining how nations defend themselves in an era of global tensions.

Anduril’s innovations include aerial and underwater drones, along with AI software capable of coordinating complex military operations. These tools offer a significant advantage: they are cheaper to produce and deploy than traditional assets like fighter jets or massive ships. With the Pentagon facing stretched budgets and supply chains due to conflicts in Ukraine, tensions with China, and Iranian missile threats, these cost-efficient technologies address a critical need. A single Iranian Shahed drone costs a fraction of the U.S. missiles used to intercept it, highlighting the need for smarter, cheaper defenses.

This shift is also reshaping how military strategies are developed. Thousands of autonomous drones could patrol vast regions like the Pacific, enhancing surveillance, countering threats, and reducing the reliance on traditional manpower. However, the reliance on AI raises important ethical questions, particularly about accountability in deploying autonomous weapons. Anduril insists that human operators must remain responsible for these systems, ensuring decisions are made with oversight and caution.

As global powers like China and Russia advance their own technologies, the United States faces pressure to innovate faster. Anduril’s work, along with similar start-ups, signals a new era of warfare—one where artificial intelligence and robotics dominate the battlefield. This technological evolution could not only strengthen national defense but also reshape global power dynamics, introducing both new opportunities and unprecedented challenges.

– F.J.