January 3, 2024 – Top Geopolitical Events & Security Developments

Rise of Shadows: The Islamic State’s Resurgence in a Collapsing Syria

The Islamic State (IS) is showing signs of resurgence in Syria and Iraq following the collapse of the Assad regime, which left abandoned Syrian army weaponry for the group to exploit. This development is raising fears of renewed violence and territorial ambitions, reminiscent of the group’s 2014 peak. IS militants have intensified attacks, freed detained comrades, and trained new recruits in the Syrian desert, leveraging instability and the withdrawal of U.S. forces to regroup.

Efforts to counter IS have increased, with U.S. and allied forces conducting airstrikes and raids targeting the group’s leadership and infrastructure. However, the effectiveness of these actions is questioned, particularly as U.S.-backed Kurdish forces face pressure from Turkish-backed groups and struggle to maintain control over detention camps holding IS fighters and families. These camps are vulnerable to breaches, potentially allowing militants to escape and rejoin IS ranks.

Regional and global powers remain divided on their approach. Iraq has asked for a reassessment of U.S. troop withdrawals, recognizing the risk of IS spreading across borders. With leadership transitions in the U.S., questions linger about the long-term strategy to prevent IS from exploiting the power vacuum and rebuilding its influence in the region.

The Palestinian Authority’s High-Stakes Battle Against Hamas

The Palestinian Authority (PA) is clashing with Hamas militants in the occupied West Bank in a power struggle over Palestinian leadership, especially in light of the leadership vacuum in Gaza caused by Israeli military actions. The PA, backed by Western powers, seeks to position itself as a viable alternative to Hamas for governing Gaza, despite facing criticism for corruption and ineffectiveness. The current fighting, concentrated in the Jenin Refugee Camp, has led to deaths and arrests on both sides. The PA has framed its crackdown as an effort to curb lawlessness and prevent militant activities that invite Israeli military operations. Meanwhile, Hamas accuses the PA of serving Israeli interests.

The stakes for the PA are significant. Success in these operations could strengthen its control in the West Bank and bolster its claim to lead Palestinian territories, including Gaza. Failure, however, might embolden Hamas and other militant groups in cities like Tulkarem and Nablus. Public sentiment toward both factions remains divided, with some Palestinians supporting the PA’s actions to restore order and others criticizing it for heavy-handed tactics. The broader regional dynamics, including Israeli and U.S. policies, will heavily influence the outcome of this power struggle.

Despite the ongoing violence, there has been little public backlash against the PA’s actions, as many Palestinians fear the spread of lawlessness and potential escalation of Israeli campaigns in the West Bank.

The Fierce Battle Against Yemen’s Houthi Escalation

The U.S. military launched precision strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, responding to the group’s ongoing attacks on ships and missiles fired toward Israel. These strikes targeted command facilities, weapons production centers, and coastal sites as the Houthis, backed by Iran, escalated their actions in solidarity with Hamas amid the Gaza conflict. While the U.S. and Israel have intercepted many of the Houthis’ missiles, some have caused damage in Israel, prompting retaliatory strikes that risk worsening Yemen’s humanitarian crisis.

The Houthis vowed to continue their operations, condemning U.S. actions as violations of sovereignty. Israel, dealing with multiple threats, has struggled to counter the Houthis due to Yemen’s distance, challenging terrain, and limited intelligence. Both U.S. and Israeli officials emphasize their commitment to neutralizing the threat, but analysts doubt the Houthis will relent despite military and civilian losses.

Shadow Strikes: Covert Killings and the Escalating India-Pakistan Rivalry

India and Pakistan’s long-standing rivalry has taken a darker turn with covert assassinations reportedly linked to India’s intelligence agency, RAW. Since 2021, India has intensified targeted killings in Pakistan, aiming at individuals accused of leading militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, which India blames for attacks on its troops and citizens. These operations, carried out through complex networks involving intermediaries and hired gunmen, appear to reflect Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hardline stance against terrorism, both at home and abroad. Pakistan has accused India of violating sovereignty with these assassinations, highlighting cases where Pakistani and Afghan operatives were allegedly recruited to eliminate targets. The killings have raised questions about Pakistan’s counterintelligence capabilities and fueled concerns about escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations. At the same time, India’s approach has drawn comparisons to intelligence agencies like Israel’s Mossad, known for similar tactics in counterterrorism.

These covert operations aren’t confined to South Asia. Allegations of Indian involvement in attempts to assassinate Sikh separatists in Canada and the U.S. have strained India’s relationships with Western governments. While Indian officials deny engaging in extrajudicial killings, the pattern suggests a growing willingness to take bold, controversial actions on foreign soil, risking international blowback. Domestically, Modi’s government has embraced these actions as a sign of strength, with pro-government media and political rhetoric celebrating India’s ability to strike at its enemies. This narrative has resonated with nationalist audiences, reinforcing Modi’s image as a decisive leader willing to protect India’s interests. However, critics argue that such operations risk long-term instability and could deepen animosity with Pakistan.

The shadow war between these two countries is as much about geopolitics as it is about domestic optics. For both India and Pakistan, covert aggression serves as a tool to destabilize the other while avoiding outright conflict. Yet, this cycle of violence carries the danger of spiraling into something far more destructive, with both sides unwilling to take the risks required for peace.

Putin’s Russia: A Fragile Empire Under Pressure at Home and Abroad

Russian President Vladimir Putin portrays himself as a protector of Russia’s sovereignty, but 2024 has exposed deep challenges. While the ongoing war in Ukraine continues with slow Russian advances, it has come at a high cost—hundreds of thousands of casualties, a strained sanctions-hit economy, and inflation nearing 10%. Domestically, Putin has militarized education, encouraged early and frequent childbirth to counteract a declining population, and reshaped society around traditionalist values and the glorification of the military. These efforts aim to foster loyalty and prepare Russian society for prolonged confrontation with the West.

Geopolitically, setbacks like the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, the crash of a plane linked to Russian defenses, and doubts over new weapons like the Oreshnik missile complicate Putin’s ambitions. Despite these challenges, he projects defiance, emphasizing Russia’s role in shaping a “new world order.” Analysts note that Putin’s bravado masks vulnerabilities, as his strategy depends on maintaining domestic control and leveraging fear of escalation to deter Western responses. Still, his narrative of a resurgent Russia resonates at home, even as cracks in the facade grow more evident.