12/30 – International News Story & Analysis

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), announced earlier this week that it would boost its presence in the Baltic Sea following a recent sabotage of a critical undersea power cable and four internet cables.

This decision follows prompt responses from the alliance’s Baltic Sea members this week.

Estonia has launched a naval operation to guard the remaining power cables, while Finland has seized the Russian tanker Eagle S, believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” and implicated in the disruption of the Estlink 2 undersea power cable, a critical link between Finland and Estonia.

The incidents, which also included damage to multiple telecommunications cables, have sparked heightened vigilance and defensive measures among allies of the Baltic nations, who reportedly requested support from the military alliance on Friday.

On December 25, the Estlink 2 power cable was damaged, leaving only the lower-capacity Estlink 1 operational. Finnish investigators suspect the Eagle S, which reportedly dragged its anchor across the seabed, causing the damage. The tanker, registered in the Cook Islands, was carrying 35,000 tons of petrol loaded in Russian ports and is suspected of being part of a clandestine fleet of aging vessels evading sanctions on Russian oil. Photos published by Finnish media showed the vessel with one missing anchor, supporting claims of its involvement. Finnish police have opened an investigation into the ship for “aggravated criminal mischief,” questioning its crew members.

Meanwhile, four telecommunications cables between Finland, Estonia, and Germany were also damaged. Although the precise cause remains under investigation, Finnish officials have noted the suspicious frequency of such incidents. President Alexander Stubb stated, “Three cases in one year cannot be a coincidence,” during a press conference on Friday.

In response to the ongoing threats, Estonia launched a naval operation on Friday to protect its undersea infrastructure, particularly the Estlink 1 cable. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur suggested joint patrols with Finland and NATO allies to ensure the security of critical connections. “We’ve decided to send our navy close to Estlink 1 to defend and secure our energy connection with Finland,” Pevkur said. He further emphasized the need for collective defense, stating, “NATO must engage on a military level.”

Sweden has also taken initiative and ramped up surveillance in the Baltic Sea, deploying aircraft and vessels to monitor ship traffic. According to Sweden’s Minister for Civil Defense, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, similar incidents have affected Swedish cables, including one linking Sweden and Estonia, which suffered partial damage earlier in October.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced plans to enhance military operations in the Baltic Sea, a move aligned with the alliance’s commitment to protecting its members’ critical infrastructure. President Stubb confirmed that Finland had requested NATO’s assistance, citing the deteriorating security environment in the Baltic.

Underwater Battleground

The Baltic Sea region has seen an alarming amount of infrastructure attacks over the past year, and since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In October, the Balticconnector gas pipeline and nearby communications cables were damaged, with Finnish police attributing the incidents to “external mechanical force.” Similarly, the Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia and Germany were sabotaged in 2022, an act still under investigation, with suspicions pointing to both Russian and Ukrainian involvement.

The increasing frequency of these incidents has prompted calls for legal defense advancements to safeguard undersea infrastructure. Estonia’s Justice Minister has urged updates to maritime laws to explicitly outlaw intentional damage to critical infrastructure. Additionally, NATO has established an underwater protection cell to address emerging threats.

Suspected Russian Sabotage

This week’s Eagle S incident has brought renewed attention to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”, a group of aging tankers operating under unidentifiable ownership structures to evade Western sanctions. The Finnish customs service linked the tanker to these covert operations, which fund Russia’s war budget. While the Kremlin dismissed Finland’s seizure of the ship as inconsequential, Baltic nations remain wary of Russian activities and persistent meddling in the Baltic.

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, condemned Russia’s shadow fleet, stating that it “threatens security and the environment while funding Russia’s war budget.” She called for stricter sanctions and enhanced cooperation to protect undersea infrastructure.

American and European intelligence agencies have highlighted the role of Russia’s Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research (GUGI), which operates specialized submarines capable of cutting cables or deploying explosives. Among its fleet is the Belgorod, the world’s largest operational submarine, designed for deep-sea operations. Western military officials suspect that such advanced capabilities could be behind the recent incidents.

The damage to Estlink 2 is expected to affect regional energy markets, with higher power prices anticipated in the Baltic countries. However, Estonia’s grid operator took the opportunity to affirm that the incident would not disrupt the planned decoupling of Baltic states from the Soviet-era power grid shared with Russia and Belarus.

The immediate impact on infrastructure operations in Finland remains limited and relatively unknown, however, the long-term deterioration of relations with their powerful neighbor has introduced a new era of national insecurity and energy uncertainty.

Russia’s actions in the Baltic Sea align with its broader strategy of targeting critical energy infrastructure during the war in Ukraine. Relentless drone strikes and missile campaigns against Ukraine’s energy systems have been a central component of its offensive, aimed at destabilizing the country’s power and heating networks. By disrupting access to heating and hot water in urban areas, Russia seeks to impose a harsh winter on Ukrainian citizens, hoping to erode national morale as the conflict enters its third year.

With repeated meddling in the Baltic Sea and covert attacks on critical power and internet cables, it appears that the Russian war machine is extending its infrastructure-targeting tactics to more of its European neighbors, aiming to further destabilize across the continent.

– P.T.