December 29, 2024 – Top Geopolitical Events & Security Developments

The New Frontier for Drone Warfare Is Deep Underwater

Underwater drones are emerging as a transformative technology in modern warfare, mirroring the revolution drones brought to aerial combat. These advanced vehicles, such as Boeing’s Orca and Australia’s Ghost Shark, can dive thousands of feet and operate autonomously for extended periods. Their primary roles include intelligence gathering, undersea infrastructure protection, and countering threats in contested waters like the Pacific. These drones are seen as cost-effective alternatives to submarines, which are expensive and crew-intensive, and they have already garnered significant investments from countries such as the U.S., Australia, and European nations.

Technological advancements have been crucial to the development of these underwater drones. Improvements in battery life, sensors, and miniaturized electronics allow the drones to be more autonomous, travel farther, and perform complex tasks. For example, BAE Systems’ Herne uses sensors and maps for navigation, distinguishes between civilian and military vessels, and can transmit intelligence. The addition of hydrogen cells could extend operational ranges to thousands of miles, while militaries explore equipping these drones with torpedoes and mines, though ethical concerns necessitate human involvement in lethal decisions.

The timing of this innovation coincides with increasing geopolitical tensions. China’s growing naval fleet and autonomous underwater capabilities, along with incidents of undersea cable sabotage in Europe, have underscored the strategic importance of controlling the underwater domain. Western navies, facing shrinking fleet sizes and outdated infrastructure, view autonomous underwater drones as essential to maintaining a competitive edge. NATO has already used such drones to safeguard undersea infrastructure, highlighting their potential in deterring future threats.

Despite their promise, underwater drones face significant challenges. Communicating underwater is more difficult than in the air, requiring drones to periodically surface for instructions. The harsh ocean environment adds technical hurdles, with designs needing to withstand immense underwater pressure and operate reliably without onboard maintenance. These difficulties have led to delays and cost overruns, such as Boeing’s Orca program, which has exceeded its budget and timeline. Nevertheless, companies and militaries remain committed to refining the technology to meet operational demands.

The potential of underwater drones to reshape warfare is immense, offering navies a means to expand capabilities without risking costly submarines or human lives. However, ethical, technical, and financial challenges must be addressed as militaries worldwide race to harness the depths of the ocean as a new battlefield.

America’s Push to Reclaim the Seas from China’s Dominance

Rising tensions with China have spurred renewed focus on the U.S. maritime sector, once a cornerstone of national power and security. Historically, America dominated global shipping, with its commercial fleet accounting for half the world’s cargo capacity post-World War II. However, decades of neglect and economic globalization have reduced the U.S. merchant fleet to less than 1% of the global total, leaving critical supply chains reliant on foreign ships. Meanwhile, China heavily subsidizes its shipbuilding industry, leveraging it to dominate global shipping and expand its navy. This disparity has raised alarms in Washington, where leaders are calling for urgent action to rebuild the maritime industry.

The bipartisan SHIPS Act proposes a decade-long investment in U.S. shipbuilding and infrastructure to revive commercial shipping and expand the Merchant Marine, whose numbers have dwindled from 50,000 sailors in 1960 to fewer than 10,000 today. Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro has championed this initiative, emphasizing that a strong commercial fleet is essential to military readiness, particularly for transporting vital supplies. Drawing on Alfred Thayer Mahan’s principles, which link maritime commerce and naval power, Del Toro warns that without significant investment, the U.S. risks falling further behind China, which integrates its commercial and military shipbuilding to bolster global dominance.

Revitalizing the U.S. maritime industry is seen as critical for economic security, military preparedness, and global competitiveness. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored vulnerabilities in supply chains, heightening concerns about over-reliance on foreign shipping. Advocates argue that restoring America’s commercial fleet would strengthen the economy, create high-paying jobs, and secure strategic independence. While challenging, this effort represents a necessary step to counter China’s maritime dominance and reestablish America’s position as a leader on the seas.

Crossroads in U.S.-China Relations: Dialogue or Divide?

The future of U.S.-China relations is uncertain as leadership changes in the U.S. may alter the current approach. The Biden administration reopened formal communication channels with Beijing, focusing on issues like trade, security, climate change, and financial stability. These discussions have addressed significant concerns, including China’s manufacturing overcapacity, its economic support for Russia, and the impact of its policies on global markets and U.S. industries. While maintaining these dialogues, the U.S. has also implemented measures like tariffs to protect its economic interests.

During the previous Trump administration, formal communication channels between the two nations were significantly reduced in favor of direct actions like tariffs to address trade and economic concerns. Beijing, which prefers predictable and structured diplomacy, has found it challenging to adjust to less formalized methods of interaction. Current efforts by Chinese officials to establish connections with the incoming U.S. administration remain uncertain, with no clear indication of how communication will proceed.

The trajectory of U.S.-China relations hinges on how both sides navigate these changes. While the U.S. continues to address economic and security challenges, China emphasizes structured dialogue to mitigate risks and maintain stability in the relationship. Whether existing channels remain active or take a new direction will shape this vital global partnership

– F.J.