December 22, 2024 – Top Geopolitical Events & Security Developments

The End of Western Air Dominance: What It Means for Modern Warfare

Russia’s largest air assault on Ukraine in August 2024, involving 230 missiles and explosive-laden drones, was largely thwarted, with Ukraine claiming an 87% interception rate. This outcome underscores a profound shift in air warfare: traditional air superiority is no longer guaranteed. Once a cornerstone of Western military dominance, air supremacy is now contested by advanced air-defense systems and the proliferation of cheap, effective drones. Countries like Russia and China are reshaping the battlefield with multilayered air defenses, challenging Western strategies that previously relied on overwhelming air power to decimate enemy forces before ground battles.

China and Russia’s sophisticated air-defense networks, featuring mobile SAM systems and long-range radars, make penetrating enemy skies a daunting task. Even advanced Western air forces, which have historically dominated conflicts, now face growing risks. NATO forces, strained by decades of downsizing and underfunding, lack the capacity to fight prolonged, high-intensity air wars without U.S. support. In the Pacific, U.S. forces face concentrated threats at key airbases, where Chinese missile strikes could devastate airpower before it even takes off. The growing capabilities of Chinese stealth fighters and long-range missiles further complicate the battlefield, potentially neutralizing key American assets like aerial tankers and command planes.

The West is adapting through innovation, such as advanced drones and stealth aircraft, but these solutions come at staggering costs. Programs like the F-35 fighter remain over budget and delayed, while even modernized versions of older aircraft are prohibitively expensive. Efforts to deploy “attritable” drones—cheap enough to lose in large numbers—offer promise but struggle to meet operational demands and cost constraints. Meanwhile, smaller drones, showcased in Ukraine, challenge traditional airpower by dominating lower altitudes. As budgets tighten and adversaries improve, Western air forces must rethink their approach, signaling the close of an era of uncontested air dominance.

Europe Weighs Postwar Troop Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Ceasefire Strategy

European allies are seriously considering deploying troops to Ukraine as part of a postwar security arrangement, contingent on a ceasefire agreement with Russia. Discussions about such a deployment are aimed at providing security guarantees to Ukraine while NATO membership remains unattainable, and ensuring Europe has a say in the resolution of the conflict. This plan, spearheaded by French President Emmanuel Macron, has garnered interest from several countries but faces uncertainties about troop commitments, mandates, and potential Russian responses. The concept would involve a European-led force, separate from NATO, to maintain a ceasefire and deter future Russian aggression.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky supports the proposal as a step toward ending the war but emphasizes it should complement, not replace, Ukraine’s push for NATO membership, which offers the ultimate security guarantee under its mutual defense clause. While European leaders acknowledge the challenges of public support and resource allocation, they see this as one part of a broader strategy to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities and secure a sustainable peace. U.S. involvement, while uncertain, remains critical for political and logistical support, with President-elect Trump yet to outline his stance on the matter.

Russia’s reaction to these discussions remains ambiguous, with officials signaling resistance to NATO expansion but potentially open to a non-NATO European force. The feasibility of negotiations depends heavily on the battlefield dynamics, as both sides prepare for a scenario that balances territorial concessions, security guarantees, and long-term stability in the region.

Russia Hits Ukraine with Largest Cyberattack on State Registries: A Digital Blow to Critical Infrastructure

Russia launched a significant cyberattack on Ukraine’s state registries, temporarily halting operations, according to Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna. The registries, which hold crucial data such as records of births, deaths, marriages, and property ownership, were targeted in what Stefanishyna called one of the largest external cyberattacks in recent times. She attributed the attack to Russian actors aiming to disrupt critical Ukrainian infrastructure.

Efforts to restore the registries are underway and are expected to take about two weeks, though limited services resumed the day after the attack. Stefanishyna assured that other state services remained unaffected and emphasized the need for thorough analysis post-restoration to bolster cybersecurity measures against future threats.

This attack is part of a broader pattern of cyber warfare throughout the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which has seen both nations’ institutions targeted. Notable incidents include attacks on Ukraine’s mobile provider Kyivstar and Russian ministries, underscoring the escalating digital dimension of the war.

UK Troops in Ukraine: A Bold Move to Turn the Tide Against Russia

The UK is considering sending troops to Ukraine for training missions as part of a broader strategy to strengthen Ukrainian defense efforts against Russia. Defence Secretary Healey outlined a five-point plan during his visit to Kyiv, focusing on increased training, new weapons, financial support, and bolstering the defense industry. While UK training has primarily taken place in Britain under Operation Interflex, moving operations to safer regions within Ukraine could enhance training efficiency and provide British troops with valuable battlefield experience. However, this move raises concerns about potential escalation if Russia were to target UK forces, risking direct conflict between the nations.

Healey emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine during this critical phase of the war, stating that negotiations should occur from a position of strength rather than conceding to Russia. He indirectly criticized Donald Trump’s claim of being able to resolve the conflict swiftly, asserting that any peace talks must align with Ukraine’s ability to deter and defend itself. Recent Russian counter attacks have put pressure on Ukrainian forces, but Healey remains confident that increased Western support can intensify pressure on Russia and undermine its objectives.

The proposal to shift training to Ukraine aligns with calls from Kyiv for a stronger NATO presence as a deterrent against further Russian aggression. While some NATO countries have discussed deploying troops to guard critical infrastructure, this idea has yet to gain widespread support. Healey refrained from commenting on President Zelensky’s vision of a NATO security umbrella for Ukraine, while the assassination of a Russian general by Ukraine has drawn mixed international reactions, highlighting the complexities of the conflict.

Taiwan’s Battle Ready Revolution: U.S. Arms Arrive Amid High-Stakes Delays

Taiwan recently received its first shipment of advanced U.S.-made M1A2 Abrams tanks, a major milestone in modernizing its military amidst ongoing tensions with China. This delivery, part of an arms deal signed in 2019, faced significant delays due to pandemic-related disruptions and global defense supply chain bottlenecks. The delays reflect a broader backlog in Taiwan’s U.S. arms orders, including F-16V jets and antitank missiles, valued at over $20 billion. Despite this, deliveries are expected to ramp up, with major systems arriving by 2026. The tanks, along with High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), enhance Taiwan’s ability to defend against potential aggression from China.

The U.S. remains Taiwan’s key defense partner, providing arms to counter threats from Beijing, which views the island as part of its territory. However, strained U.S. defense manufacturing capacity has hampered timely deliveries. The Biden administration approved further arms sales, while Taiwan is exploring military upgrades to replace aging equipment. Some analysts argue that while Taiwan’s acquisitions signal its commitment to defense, delivery delays raise concerns about their immediate utility. Experts also note Taiwan’s balancing act in navigating U.S. support and maintaining readiness amid political uncertainty under Trump’s second term, marked by a mix of hawkish and conciliatory signals toward China.

Taiwan’s military spending reflects its resolve to strengthen defenses, but questions remain over the effectiveness and timing of new purchases. The arrival of Abrams tanks symbolizes progress and serves as a statement of Taiwan’s determination to bolster its military capabilities. However, any new orders could further strain the backlog, posing challenges in Taiwan’s quest to modernize quickly enough to counter evolving threats.

Missiles, Corruption, and Delays: How Internal Struggles Are Shaping China’s Military Future

China’s military modernization, a central focus of President Xi Jinping’s leadership, faces delays due to widespread corruption probes targeting senior officials and defense contractors. Over a dozen high-ranking members of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and key defense-industry executives have been removed, disrupting procurement and missile development programs. The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress highlights the potential impact of these disruptions on China’s goal of creating a more advanced military force by 2027, which includes a diversified and expanding nuclear arsenal. The report estimates China’s nuclear warhead stockpile has grown from 200 in 2020 to over 600 and is expected to surpass 1,000 by 2030. U.S. officials believe these setbacks could slow China’s preparedness for major military objectives, including a possible invasion of Taiwan.

Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, spanning over a decade, has sought to assert control over the politically influential PLA while promoting modernization. However, recent investigations have implicated even officers closely linked to Xi, raising questions about his decision-making and internal support within the Chinese leadership. High-profile purges in the PLA Rocket Force and defense industry hint at underlying issues such as fraud in constructing missile silos, although operational readiness has reportedly improved since.

Despite these efforts, corruption remains a significant obstacle for China’s military ambitions. Western analysts suggest intensified scrutiny on defense appointments and ideological training could further slow modernization efforts. The Pentagon’s report underscores the strategic implications of these challenges for the U.S. and its allies, while Beijing dismisses such assessments as unwarranted.

Friendly Fire Over the Red Sea: Navy Jet Shot Down Amid Rising Tensions

A U.S. Navy fighter jet was mistakenly shot down by friendly fire from the USS Gettysburg over the Red Sea early Sunday, forcing the pilot and weapons system officer to eject. Both crew members survived with minor injuries. The incident occurred during U.S. operations to safeguard Red Sea waterways from attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who have been targeting vessels amid ongoing regional tensions.

The U.S. military, stationed in the Red Sea since the Gaza conflict began, has been intercepting missiles and drones launched by Houthis protesting Israeli actions in Gaza. The friendly fire incident was caused by an SM-2 surface-to-air missile fired from the Gettysburg while the jet was operating from the USS Harry S. Truman. A full investigation is underway, and the Navy is assessing the recovery of the downed F/A-18 Hornet.

Houthi forces claimed to have targeted the USS Harry S. Truman with drones and cruise missiles over the weekend, but U.S. forces reported no damage. The Truman and Gettysburg are part of the Harry S. Truman Strike Group, which deployed in September. The Gettysburg, scheduled for decommissioning in 2026, underwent extensive upgrades a decade ago to extend its service life.

After Assad: The New Middle East Power Shuffle

The recent fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East, reshaping power dynamics across the region. Assad’s ousting, influenced by the collapse of his support from Iran and Russia, has led to a reshuffling of alliances. Islamist rebels now lead Syria’s transition, with Western nations cautiously reengaging diplomatically. Israel’s strengthened position highlights its military and political dominance, as it capitalizes on the weakening of regional adversaries like Hezbollah and Iran. Analysts suggest that Assad’s fall signals the end of a long-standing anti-Western, anti-Israel political order, with Israel now setting much of the Middle East’s agenda.

Meanwhile, Turkey has emerged as another major player, with its proxies in a strong position in Syria and its President Erdogan vindicated in his calls for Assad’s removal. Turkey’s regional influence has grown through peace deals and strategic alliances, though its connections to Islamist groups raise concerns among neighboring Arab states and Israel. The evolving situation in Syria could intensify rivalries between regional powers, particularly between Turkey and Israel, as well as Gulf states with vested interests in the region’s future.

Iran, despite its setbacks, may still attempt to rebuild its influence through calculated steps, potentially exploiting unrest and security vacuums in Syria. While Tehran faces pressure to avoid escalation with Israel and the West, analysts warn of risks tied to its nuclear ambitions. The international community, including the U.S., faces challenges in balancing diplomacy with preventing further destabilization, as Syria becomes a focal point in a broader regional realignment.

– F.J