12/17 – International News Update

On December 13th, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed François Bayrou, a seasoned centrist and loyal ally, as the country’s fourth prime minister this year. Bayrou’s nomination follows weeks of political instability marked by the National Assembly’s ousting of his predecessor, Michel Barnier, after a failed attempt to push through a budget without a vote. The 73-year-old Bayrou now faces the formidable task of navigating a deeply fragmented parliament, managing France’s escalating budget deficit, and addressing public dissatisfaction with Macron-era policies.

Bayrou’s announced appointment was met with mixed reactions. While he pledged to unite a divided nation and tackle France’s economic challenges, opposition parties were quick to criticize. The hard-left France Unbowed party vowed to introduce a no-confidence motion, while Marine Tondelier, leader of the Greens, warned of resistance if Bayrou retained outgoing ministers or continued unpopular policies. Socialist leader Olivier Faure described the appointment as exacerbating France’s “democratic crisis” but indicated a willingness to cooperate if constitutional maneuvers forcing legislation through parliament were avoided.

Bayrou’s immediate priority is to form a government capable of surviving opposition scrutiny. His coalition, primarily composed of pro-Macron centrists and conservative MPs, faces fierce resistance from both the hard left and right. Securing Socialist support appears critical; the Socialists, who hold 66 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, have pledged not to topple the government immediately but demand significant concessions, including revisiting Macron’s controversial pension reform that raised the retirement age from 62 to 64.

Bayrou must also address the looming fiscal crisis. France’s budget deficit is projected to exceed 6% of GDP in 2024. To stabilize the situation, Bayrou plans to introduce a “special law” to extend current budgetary measures into 2025, buying time to draft a new budget early next year. This temporary solution, however, is unlikely to quell discontent among both leftist factions advocating higher taxes on the wealthy and conservatives demanding fiscal discipline.

Bayrou’s political career spans decades, marked by ideological flexibility and resilience. He served as education minister under conservative governments in the 1990s and briefly as justice minister after Macron’s 2017 election. However, his tenure was cut short by allegations of embezzling European Parliament funds, a case in which he was later acquitted due to reasonable doubt, though appeals are ongoing.

Critics argue that Bayrou’s appointment reflects Macron’s reliance on established political elites to maintain control rather than pursuing transformative leadership. Marine Tondelier labeled the move “incomprehensible in electoral terms,” echoing public frustration over repeated political gridlock.

Bayrou’s survival hinges on his ability to manage competing demands from across the political spectrum while maintaining fragile Socialist support. Fresh legislative elections cannot occur until July, leaving Bayrou to navigate a volatile and polarized parliament. Failure to secure consensus on critical issues, including the 2025 budget, risks further destabilizing Macron’s government and fueling support for extremist parties.