12/2 – International News Update & Story Development

Hundreds of Iran-aligned Iraqi fighters crossed into Syria on Monday to support President Bashar al-Assad’s government forces in their fight against rebels who recently captured the second-biggest city, Aleppo.

Current reports out of the Middle East indicate that Lebanon’s Hezbollah has yet to send any troops or join the operation in Syria due to its recent and devastating conflict against Israel. Reports suggest that as many as 4,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed by Israeli strikes into southern Lebanon since October 7, 2023. [Reuters]

The recent rebel capture of Aleppo marks their most significant achievement in years. Syrian government forces had maintained full control of the city since 2016, following a prolonged siege that became a turning point in the war.

Opposition leader Hadi al-Bahra attributed the rebels’ success to the distraction caused by Hezbollah’s focus on Israel, coupled with longstanding preparations for the assault. [Reuters]

Despite its historic role in Syria, Hezbollah has refrained from sending reinforcements due to its recent losses in Israel. Reports indicate that senior Hezbollah officers previously stationed in Aleppo were redeployed to support ground operations against Israel before a ceasefire last week. Analysts suggest this shift could impact Assad’s dependence on Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran.

Efforts by regional players like the United Arab Emirates and the United States to influence Assad’s alliances are ongoing. Discussions have reportedly centered on lifting sanctions in exchange for reduced Iranian influence, though recent rebel advances may complicate such negotiations. [Reuters]

Government and Russian forces have launched airstrikes targeting rebel-held areas in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, with reports of civilian casualties. The government claims to have killed hundreds of rebels in recent days, although these figures remain unverified.

Rebel forces, including Turkey-backed groups and the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, continue their operations in northwest Syria. Meanwhile, Turkey’s state-backed Syrian National Army has reportedly captured key positions, intensifying the complexity of the conflict.

Opinion:

Iran’s network of allied militia groups, backed by Russian airstrikes, has played a crucial role in bolstering President Bashar al-Assad’s forces since the civil war began in 2011. However, the alliance faces renewed challenges after the rebels’ swift takeover of Aleppo last week.

President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is confronting significant challenges as its principal military allies, Iran and Russia, grapple with their own conflicts, leading to a strain on resources and support.

Iran, a steadfast supporter of Assad, is contending with internal and regional pressures. Its primary proxy, Hezbollah, has suffered substantial losses due to prolonged engagements, particularly the recent conflict with Israel. These developments have compelled Hezbollah to withdraw key personnel from Syria to address immediate concerns in Lebanon, thereby diminishing its capacity to assist Assad’s forces.

It is very likely that the Syrian rebels who wish to topple the Assad family had this assault planned for a very long time, and waited for the moment that a truce was called in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel. Like any Islamist extremist group, they did not want it to look like they were helping Israel in the slightest.

Simultaneously, Russia’s military focus is heavily directed toward the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The protracted war has necessitated the allocation of substantial military resources, potentially limiting Russia’s ability to provide the same level of support to Assad’s regime as in previous years. Analysts suggest that Russia’s extensive commitments in Ukraine may hinder its capacity to effectively manage its involvement in Syria, thereby affecting Assad’s strategic position.

Putin is leveraging more and more forces into Ukraine as he will likely try to advance as much as possible in an attempt to maximize his leverage going into a Trump presidency where some sort of deal to end the war may be proposed.

The concurrent distractions of Iran and Russia have emboldened Syrian rebel factions, leading to significant territorial gains, notably the recent capture of Aleppo. This shift underscores the Assad regime’s heavy reliance on its allies and highlights its vulnerability when their support wanes.

Other powers like the U.S. and Iranian adversaries might try to leverage this moment to drive a wedge between the Iranian regime and Assad in Syria. Efforts by regional players like the United Arab Emirates and the United States to influence Assad’s alliances are ongoing.

The evolving dynamics present a complex challenge for Assad, as he navigates reduced external assistance amid escalating internal opposition.With Russia’s attention divided by the war in Ukraine and Hezbollah weakened by its confrontation with Israel, questions arise about the coalition’s ability to respond effectively.