11/20 – International Op-Ed Piece

The clock is ticking on Justin Trudeau’s time as leader of Canada.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has of late finally highlighted the sense of widespread anxiety among Canadians regarding their economic prospects, addressing global progressives and his dwindling and disillusioned voter base. Last month, he pointed out how people seem more aware of rising mortgage rates than they are of child-care savings, perhaps suggesting a lack of recognition for his government’s efforts.

This feeling of anxiety reflects on his government as well. Trudeau’s Liberals, once celebrated, now face declining approval after nine years in power, with many Canadians expressing dissatisfaction. Only a small fraction of voters intend to support him in the next election. With less than a year until the vote, party members worry about the absence of a plan to reverse their fortunes. Recent by-election losses and the withdrawal of support from their partner, the New Democratic Party, have further shaken confidence. 

A letter from Liberal MPs even circulated, calling for Trudeau to step aside. [The Economist] 

Trudeau’s presidency began on a high in 2015, gaining moral credibility by welcoming Syrian refugees and legalizing marijuana. He also safeguarded the North American trade pact despite tensions with then-President Donald Trump and introduced a financial aid program for families that helped lift children out of poverty. His promises of child-care subsidies won him renewed mandates in 2019 and 2021 from working-class and younger voters.

However, the last couple years have seen many of these voters shifting their support to Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. Rising housing costs are a central issue, with homeownership in Canada increasing by 66% since 2015. [The Economist] 

The housing supply has failed to keep pace with demand, particularly in light of the surge in immigration during Trudeau’s leadership. This, coupled with rising temporary foreign workers and non-permanent residents, has strained Canada’s infrastructure, especially education and healthcare. Student visa numbers, for instance, have exploded, leading to overcrowded universities and additional challenges in schools.

Canada’s sluggish economic growth has exacerbated the situation. Productivity has lagged, and while investment has been strong in oil and gas, areas like tech and R&D have seen less focus compared to other G7 countries. Additionally, Canada’s economy, closely tied to the U.S., faced hurdles post-pandemic when American spending shifted away from goods, leaving Canadian manufacturers scrambling.

Higher interest rates have further burdened households, yet despite these challenges, the government has not increased spending to alleviate the strain.

Trudeau’s approach to climate change initially seemed promising, but his carbon tax has come under attack. Although designed to address environmental concerns, it has led to indirect costs that many households cannot bear. Poilievre has seized on this discontent, vowing to eliminate the tax, despite offering no clear alternative to combat climate change.

Canada’s global standing has also declined under Trudeau, with diminished influence on the international stage and strained relations with countries like China and India. Even Israel’s leadership appears to have distanced itself from Trudeau, with there now being a sense internationally that Trudeau is no longer respected or taken seriously by the high club of world leaders.

Instead of addressing these challenges head-on, Trudeau has focused on dismissing critics, while his party’s support continues to erode. Recent cabinet shuffles have done little to change the narrative, and Trudeau’s acknowledgment of widespread anxiety may be too little, too late.

Poilievre, on the other hand, has capitalized on the nation’s economic fears, offering straightforward slogans and pledges that resonate with those who feel abandoned by Trudeau’s policies. As a result, many Canadians have turned away from the Liberal leader and the causes he championed and ultimately failed to sustain.