11/18 – International News Update

The Biden administration has approved Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied weapons for long-range strikes within Russian territory, according to officials familiar with the matter. This decision represents a notable shift in the U.S. stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, as Kyiv prepares for its first deep strikes utilizing Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).

The policy change comes amid reports of Russian President Vladimir Putin reinforcing his forces with North Korean troops along Ukraine’s northern border in an effort to reclaim territory lost to Ukrainian advances. Adding to the urgency is President-elect Donald Trump’s recent election victory, which has raised questions about the future of U.S. military support, as Trump has pledged to bring the conflict to a swift conclusion.

For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Western allies have called on the Biden administration to allow strikes deeper into Russian territory, arguing that restrictions hindered Ukraine’s ability to respond to attacks on its cities and infrastructure. While Biden’s decision aligns with these requests, it has also sparked concerns about escalating the conflict. Putin has warned that such actions could lead Moscow to supply long-range weapons to allies for strikes on Western targets, with Russian officials describing the policy shift as a major escalation.

Zelenskyy remained reserved in his response, emphasizing that Ukraine’s military strategy focuses on actions over rhetoric. “Today, many in the media are saying that we have received permission to take appropriate actions,” he stated. “But strikes are not made with words. Such things are not announced.”

The decision follows President Biden’s recent discussions with leaders from South Korea, Japan, and China at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, where talks highlighted the deployment of North Korean troops and its implications for regional security. Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the U.S. has provided over $56 billion in military aid, solidifying its role as Ukraine’s most vital ally.

This policy shift coincides with Ukraine’s plans to execute its first long-range strikes using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles (306 km). These strikes are anticipated in the coming days, though operational details remain confidential for security reasons.

Opinion: 

Ukraine is focusing its efforts on defending the Kursk region, a salient it captured during a cross-border assault in August. The territory could serve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, potentially influenced by Trump’s stance once he assumes office in January. Ukrainian forces face mounting pressure as Russia reportedly masses 50,000 troops in the area, supplemented by 11,000 North Korean soldiers.

“ATACMS missiles can hold at-risk high-value Russian and North Korean targets. This would help Ukrainian forces defend the Kursk salient, which is under pressure,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The Biden administration’s hesitation to approve long-range strikes mirrors previous delays in providing advanced weapons such as tanks and fighter jets. Critics argue these delays have allowed Moscow to recover and reinforce occupied territories, weakening Ukraine’s counteroffensive capabilities. Analysts note that while ATACMS strikes may bolster Ukraine’s position, they are unlikely to significantly alter the war’s trajectory.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, stated, “Ukraine has committed some of its best units [to Kursk], so they may be able to hold for some time if they continue to receive enough ammunition and combat replacements.”

It remains unclear how Trump’s administration will address this policy shift once he takes office. Trump has criticized the scale of U.S. aid to Ukraine and pledged to end the war quickly, although his plans remain vague. Richard Grenell, one of Trump’s closest foreign policy advisors, criticized the move, saying, “Escalating the wars before he leaves office.”

France and Britain, which have supplied Ukraine with long-range missiles, have yet to indicate whether they will follow the U.S. in loosening restrictions on their use. Analysts warn that while the authorization may help Ukraine defend critical positions, it might come too late to drastically shift the conflict’s momentum.

As the situation unfolds, Kyiv faces the dual challenge of maintaining its territorial gains while navigating the evolving dynamics of international support and Russian aggression. The Biden administration’s decision reflects a delicate balancing act, weighing the risks of escalation against the need to bolster Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.