11/13 – International News Update & Story

Germany’s coalition government has collapsed, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissing Finance Minister Christian Lindner on Wednesday night. The fallout is expected to lead to a snap election early next year, with voting likely scheduled for February 2025.

The “traffic light” coalition, formed in 2021 by the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), has faced persistent internal discord. Initially established after prolonged negotiations, the coalition has struggled with diverging political priorities, economic turbulence, and the impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Recent surveys indicate waning public support, with 85% of Germans expressing dissatisfaction with the government, and a majority now favoring an early election.

Economic troubles remain a central issue. Germany’s GDP has stagnated, and the International Monetary Fund forecasts a modest 0.8% growth for 2025, the lowest among major developed economies. Volkswagen, the nation’s largest manufacturer, faces potential factory closures for the first time in its history, underscoring the broader economic crisis.

Tensions within the coalition peaked after a ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court in November 2023 deemed parts of the government’s budgetary policy unconstitutional, leaving a €60 billion shortfall. The situation worsened following the leak of Finance Minister Lindner’s proposal, which suggested cutting social spending and easing regulations, sparking fierce backlash from coalition partners who favor increased investment in social and climate initiatives. The rift led to Lindner’s dismissal, with Scholz citing his repeated obstruction of key legislation.

Chancellor Scholz has framed the upcoming election as a referendum on his cautious approach to foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine. Scholz has refused to supply Kyiv with long-range missiles, arguing that doing so could escalate the conflict with Russia. In a recent address to parliament, he defended his stance, emphasizing his role in preventing further escalation. “I am glad that I was allowed to take responsibility in these difficult times,” Scholz stated, portraying himself as a leader who prioritizes prudence and restraint in handling the crisis.

This approach stands in contrast to his main rival, Friedrich Merz of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who has taken a more aggressive stance on military aid. Merz has criticized Scholz for his reluctance to send German-made Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, advocating for stronger support if Russia continues its attacks on civilian targets. Merz’s hawkish position has resonated with conservative voters, propelling the CDU to the lead in recent polls with 32% support. In comparison, Scholz’s SPD trails behind at 16%, just behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). [Politico] 

The election timing and outcome are now critical, as Scholz aims to push through essential legislation with the backing of opposition leaders before the vote. However, mounting pressure from the CDU for an earlier election suggests a turbulent campaign period ahead. Meanwhile, international dynamics could further complicate Scholz’s strategy, particularly if U.S. foreign policy shifts with a potential Trump administration threatening to reduce military aid to Ukraine.

Merz, while avoiding direct comments on Ukraine aid during his recent speech, criticized the current government’s broader policies, calling for a significant shift in Germany’s approach to migration, security, and economic matters. The forthcoming election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for Germany’s political landscape, with a likely change in leadership that could alter the country’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory.

As the campaign unfolds, Scholz continues to position himself as the “peace chancellor,” highlighting Germany’s extensive military contributions to Ukraine while underscoring his efforts to avoid direct conflict with Russia. Whether this balancing act will sway voters in his favor remains uncertain, but all signs point to a significant political shift in Germany as the snap election approaches.

Scholz said Wednesday that he will ask for a vote of confidence on December 16, paving the way for early parliamentary elections in February.