10/21 – International News Story

In the final months of his presidency, President Joe Biden is showing a new openness to using U.S. military aid to Israel as both an incentive and a form of pressure in its high-stakes conflict with Iran and militant groups supported by Iran. This approach deepens U.S. involvement in Israeli decision-making right before the and might be interpreted as a way of increasing this administration’s influence with the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Biden’s objectives for now seem to include preventing a larger regional conflict and urging Israel to address Gaza’s worsening humanitarian crisis.

Last weekend, the Biden administration revealed plans to send approximately 100 U.S. troops and an advanced anti-missile system to Israel, a rare move prompted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s consideration of retaliating against Iran after its October 1 missile strike. [Reuters]

In addition, the administration delivered a letter to Israel on Sunday, warning it to take steps to improve Gaza’s humanitarian conditions within the next month or face possible restrictions on U.S. military aid. Publicly, U.S. officials claim these actions align with long-standing policies that aim to safeguard Israel’s defense while advocating for civilian protection in the year-long Gaza conflict.

These recent moves signal a deeper U.S. involvement in Israeli strategies, even as Biden nears the end of his term. Israel has often resisted U.S. advice over the past year, creating political challenges for the Biden administration, which faces pressure from liberal activists in the Democratic Party to use U.S. influence to curb Israel’s actions.

This both-carrot-and-stick approach to foreign policy shows that the Biden administration is engaged in trying to manage this conflict, but there are certain doubts that Washington would cut any military aid if or when the conflict with Iran intensifies. If tensions escalate and Israel gets into direct military conflict with Iran, it’s hard to imagine the U.S. reducing military support.

White House spokesperson John Kirby downplayed the idea that the letter was intended as a threat, though Israeli officials are reportedly taking it seriously. Israel also acknowledged receiving the letter, which is under review by security officials. [Reuters]

On Wednesday of last week, Israel reported that 50 aid trucks had been sent to northern Gaza from Jordan, possibly in response to U.S. demands.

Biden has prioritized Israel’s defense since the war with Hamas began, refusing to halt weapons deliveries despite criticism from fellow Democrats as Israeli strikes in Gaza, according to Palestinian health authorities, led to significant casualties. 

In April, the administration pushed for better protection for civilians and aid workers, which temporarily increased aid flows into Gaza. Sunday’s letter, which outlined steps for Israel to improve conditions within 30 days, including the entry of at least 350 aid trucks daily, was the clearest ultimatum presented by the U.S. thus far.

Failure to comply could result in Israel becoming ineligible for U.S. military aid, according to John Ramming Chappell from the Center for Civilians in Conflict, marking a potential turning point in U.S. policy. Netanyahu held an emergency meeting on Wednesday to discuss increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza, with aid expansion likely soon. [Reuters]

The deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) also represents a major shift. Former officials described it as a “paradigm shift” given Israel’s long-standing defense doctrine of self-reliance. This move increases U.S. involvement in the conflict, especially as the Middle East anticipates Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strike.

Biden has opposed any Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear or energy sites, expressing concern about escalating tensions. Analysts like Thomas Karako from the Center for Strategic and International Studies view the THAAD deployment as a way to dissuade Israel from launching large-scale strikes.

With Biden’s 30-day deadline running past the U.S. election, Netanyahu may leverage the potential for a more favorable U.S. administration under Donald Trump if the Republican candidate wins. As Aaron David Miller noted, Netanyahu could be operating from a position of maximum leverage in the coming weeks with the presidential election coming at such a pivotal and uncertain time.