09/27 – International News Update

The Israeli military reported that it hit Hezbollah’s central headquarters in Beirut. The Friday evening explosions marked the most intense strikes witnessed in the Lebanese capital over the past year.

According to Israeli army spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the strikes targeted Hezbollah’s main headquarters, which was located underneath residential buildings. Airstrikes on Hezbollah sites continued into early Saturday after the military had warned residents to evacuate from three targeted buildings.

Lebanon’s health ministry reports that over 720 people have been killed in the country this week. Israel has significantly intensified its strikes, stating that its focus is on Hezbollah’s military assets and high-ranking commanders. [AP News]

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut short his trip to the United States and decided to return to Israel ahead of the end of the Sabbath on Saturday evening, according to his office. Just hours earlier, Netanyahu had addressed the United Nations, promising that Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah would persist, diminishing hopes for a cease-fire supported by the international community.

President Joe Biden expressed to confidantes and allies this week that he did not believe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was interested in ending the conflict with Hezbollah, voicing growing frustration as a proposed cease-fire plan unraveled, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. [Politico]

One individual who spoke with Biden mentioned that the president felt Netanyahu had embarrassed both Secretary Antony Blinken and himself with his indecisiveness regarding the cease-fire proposal with Hezbollah.

Netanyahu at first told U.S. officials he supported a pause in fighting with the Lebanon-based militant group, then roundly rejected the cease-fire proposal once it was made public.

The revelation comes amid intensifying Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, culminating Friday with a strike on the militant group’s headquarters in Beirut. The target of that attack was Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, according to a U.S. official, two Israeli officials and two other people informed of the strike. [Politico]

It has just been confirmed that Nasrallah was killed in the attack — which came just after Netanyhu delivered a fiery address to the United Nations — dramatically escalates the conflict in Lebanon and could undermine the Biden administration’s effort to clinch a cease-fire and head-off a full-scale war.

Nasrallah’s death from Friday’s attack, represents one of the most consequential Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in decades. Nasrallah has led the Iran-backed militant organization since 1992, following Israel’s assassination of his predecessor.

According to two U.S. administration officials, this latest strike could further strain the relationship between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu. The Biden administration has repeatedly been caught off guard by Israel’s bold actions during delicate cease-fire negotiations, including recent incidents where Israel detonated pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah, which reportedly led to civilian casualties.

Firas Maksad, a Lebanon expert at the Middle East Institute, remarked, “Whether or not Israel was successful in killing Nasrallah today, this will no doubt be a marked escalation in the conflict that will put us beyond the threshold of an all-out war.” He added that the situation is particularly concerning as Israeli ground troops seem to be gearing up for an invasion of southern Lebanon. [Politico]

Opinion:

Since Hezbollah began launching missiles at Israel on October 8th last year, the threat of escalation has loomed over Israelis, Lebanese, and the international community. That escalation now seems to be materializing. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is intensifying. Over 500 people died in a single day of Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah leaders and its arsenal.

100,000 Lebanese civilians have been displaced, fleeing from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah retaliates. On September 25th, Israel intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Tel Aviv—the first time Hezbollah targeted Israel’s commercial hub.

Despite how dire things seem, the situation could deteriorate even further. Israel has massed more troops in the north than at any time in the past nine months. Still, a full-scale ground invasion would require even more forces, stationed near the border. There is growing fear that both sides are heading towards a devastating escalation. Yet, both have reasons to pull back. An all-out war would only result in a high death toll and a return to the previous deadlock that existed before October 7th.

Israel claims to have wiped out up to 50% of Hezbollah’s arsenal, but the militia has over 120,000 rockets and missiles remaining, which could inflict significant damage. Even with Israel’s military strength, a clear victory is not guaranteed, as previous conflicts in Lebanon have demonstrated. A ground invasion would pit Israel’s fatigued troops, following months of operations in Gaza, against a well-armed, battle-hardened foe in familiar territory. Moreover, a second major conflict would seriously damage Israel’s economy, while Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s infrastructure would worsen an already catastrophic economic situation, with Lebanon’s GDP less than half of what it was in 2019 due to poor governance.

Iran, Hezbollah’s key backer, also seems cautious about a broader conflict. Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told the UN this week that Iran would not allow Israel to provoke a regional war. It’s possible that Iran prefers to keep Hezbollah’s resources intact as a deterrent against a direct Israeli attack on Iranian soil.

Israel has its own reasons for de-escalation. It cannot fully eliminate Hezbollah, only weaken it. After causing substantial damage to the militia since July, Israel may soon find itself running out of viable targets. Once it has exhausted Hezbollah’s stock of medium-range rockets and taken out key leaders, the risk of killing the group’s main political figures, like Hassan Nasrallah, could push Hezbollah—and by extension, Iran—into using its remaining arsenal. That’s a red line Israel would prefer not to cross.

The most promising exit from this conflict might lie to the south. Nasrallah had indicated he would cease fire on Israel if a truce were reached in Gaza.

Unfortunately, a truce in Gaza seems elusive, largely due to the stubbornness of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. A cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, as called for by the U.S., much of Europe, and several Arab nations, seems more attainable. With pressure from Iran, Hezbollah might be convinced to back down, and Israel might feel it has done enough, at least for now. Even an unofficial truce would bring some much-needed relief.

Such a pause would at least allow displaced Israelis in the north and Lebanese in the south to return to their homes. While Israel would still face the looming threat of a heavily armed adversary near its border, one truce is better than none at all. Though it wouldn’t guarantee lasting peace, a cease-fire would certainly buy some time before the next inevitable conflict arises.