09-18 International News Story & Updates

Last week, President Vladimir Putin warned that the West would be engaging in direct conflict with Russia if it permitted Ukraine to target Russian territory using Western-supplied long-range missiles. Putin emphasized that such a move would significantly alter the conflict’s nature and scope.

For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been urging Kyiv’s allies to allow Ukraine to use Western missiles, such as the U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadows, to strike deep into Russian territory. The goal is to disrupt Moscow’s capacity to carry out attacks. In some of his most assertive statements yet, Putin suggested that providing these missiles to Ukraine would involve the supplier countries directly in the war. He explained that the necessary satellite targeting data and missile programming would require NATO military personnel, as Kyiv lacks the capability to carry out these tasks independently.

“So this is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not. It is a question of deciding whether or not NATO countries are directly involved in a military conflict,” Putin told Russian state TV. [Reuters] 

“If this decision is taken, it will mean nothing less than the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This will be their direct participation, and this, of course, will significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict.”

Putin stated that Russia would be compelled to respond with “appropriate decisions” in light of new threats, although he did not specify what those responses might entail. In the past, he has alluded to the possibility of arming the West’s adversaries with Russian weapons for attacks on Western targets and has mentioned the potential deployment of conventional missiles within range of the U.S. and European allies.

Russia, the world’s largest nuclear power, is also in the process of updating its nuclear doctrine, which outlines the conditions under which Moscow would deploy nuclear weapons. Putin is facing pressure from a prominent foreign policy figure to modify this doctrine to include a willingness to use nuclear arms against countries that “support NATO aggression in Ukraine.” Meanwhile, Russia is conducting significant naval drills with China and contemplating restrictions on key commodity exports.

Western discussions about whether to allow Kyiv to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons are framed as a response to what they perceive as Moscow’s escalation of the war. This follows reports that Russia has received ballistic missiles from Iran, which Tehran has dismissed as “ugly propaganda.”

These concerns for Putin come amidst a sense that the U.S. and Britain are on the verge of making a significant decision in the Ukraine conflict. A pivotal White House meeting took place  on Friday where they discussed allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied missiles to strike within Russian territory, but ultimately no concrete decision on the matter was made. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a stern warning on Thursday evening, declaring that such a move would equate to NATO entering the conflict directly. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting Russia,” Putin said.

The U.S. has long been reluctant to authorize Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian forces, fearing that such an escalation could lead to Russian retaliation against a NATO country, such as the weapons supply hub in Rzeszów, Poland. However, the dynamics have shifted, partly due to a significant shipment of Iranian missiles to Russia. British intelligence believes these weapons could give Putin’s forces a decisive advantage as they continue to make gains in eastern Ukraine, particularly around the strategic city of Pokrovsk.

Last week’s  summit is the culmination of a week of intense diplomatic negotiations among Western allies. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with his British and Ukrainian counterparts earlier in the week, with a U.K. official stating, “We’re really in the last hard yards of diplomatic negotiations now.” [Politico] 

Although formal announcements are not expected immediately, some U.K. officials expressed hope that a deal might be confirmed at the U.N. General Assembly later this month when Biden and Starmer will be in attendance.

Western officials have acknowledged that while the decision, if made, will not singlehandedly change the war’s outcome, it could help Ukraine counter Russia’s recent gains in the east. 

The British position has been more permissive, with former Prime Minister David Cameron previously stating that Ukraine “has that right” to target Russia. However, Washington has remained cautious, concerned about the risk of escalation. [Politico] 

According to a second U.K. official, the revelation that Iran has been supplying ballistic missiles to Russia has altered Western thinking. “Things have changed in light of Russia’s acquisition of ballistic missiles from Iran,” the official explained. Blinken’s confirmation that Iran is now supplying Russia was described as a “significant moment.”

Other European officials have echoed these concerns, with one defense advisor in the Baltic region noting that the shift in Washington’s stance was largely due to the Iranian missile shipments.

A U.S. administration official emphasized that while the Iranian missiles are troubling, this development has not been the primary factor in Washington’s decision-making regarding long-range missile support for Ukraine. “This has been in the works for a long time,” the official said. [Politico] 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently called for permission to use long-range missiles to target key military installations across the Russian border. Leaders from the Baltic states have supported these appeals, arguing that concerns about escalation are misplaced.

Despite this, any agreement is expected to maintain restrictions on the types of Russian targets Ukraine can engage. Starmer remarked, “We have been providing training and capability. And there are obviously further discussions to be had about the nature of that capability.”

Details of the discussions have been kept confidential, but sources suggest a small group of White House officials is finalizing plans to allow Ukraine to strike a broader range of targets inside Russia using American and British weapons. Zelenskyy has urged swift action, warning that delays could give Moscow time to relocate its military assets deeper into Russia.

Zelenskyy has made it clear that he expects any agreement to have real military significance, asserting that “removing restrictions means removing restrictions” and that he seeks a strategy aimed at Ukraine’s victory, not just political maneuvering. [Politico] 

Allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles comes with several complications, including the high cost of the missiles and the fact that some systems used in conjunction with them are U.S.-made. More broadly, U.S. officials have long feared that the risks of escalation could outweigh the benefits.

U.S. President Joe Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer seemed to dismiss Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warnings during their meeting last Friday, where Ukraine’s request to use British-supplied missiles against Russian targets was discussed.

When asked about Putin’s assertion that such an action would draw NATO into the war, Biden responded, “I don’t think much about Vladimir Putin.” As for Ukraine’s potential use of missiles deeper into Russia, Biden remarked, “We’re going to discuss that now.” [Politico 2] 

After the meeting, Starmer clarified that no final decision on the Storm Shadow missiles had been reached and suggested that more developments could come during the upcoming U.N. General Assembly. He emphasized that the meeting was not focused on a specific capability but rather on broader strategic discussions, adding, “We’ve come to a strong position.” Starmer rejected suggestions that their timing was influenced by the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the possibility of Donald Trump, who once praised Putin as a “genius,” returning to power. He insisted the focus remained on pressing developments in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The two leaders held a private 20-minute discussion in the Oval Office, followed by a larger meeting with key aides, covering issues related to both Ukraine and the Middle East. Starmer had not ruled out allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles, stating, “Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away.”

Despite growing pressure from both Russia and Ukraine, officials stressed that no immediate decision on the use of Storm Shadow missiles was expected. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby reiterated that there would be no announcement on long-range strike capabilities targeting Russia, adding, “There’s no change to our policy with respect to that.” [Politico 2] 

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed frustration at the delay, writing on X, “It’s difficult to repeatedly hear, ‘We are working on this,’ while Putin continues to burn down our cities and villages.” On the same day, Russia expelled six British diplomats, accusing them of espionage, a claim the U.K. denied as “baseless,” stating the diplomats had lost their status in August.

Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv, urging the U.K. and U.S. to authorize the use of long-range missiles like Storm Shadow, SCALP, and ATACMS, warning that “every day that goes by means more pointless and tragic loss of Ukrainian lives.” [Politico 2] 

Grant Shapps, the U.K.’s former Defense Secretary, echoed this sentiment, saying the Biden-Starmer meeting “must deliver one outcome: Ukraine must be able to strike with Storm Shadows inside Russia if Russia continues to launch attacks on Ukraine from these locations.”

Although Biden’s approval is considered critical due to the U.S. technology involved in the Storm Shadow missiles, diplomatic alignment between the U.S. and U.K. was seen as paramount. Two U.K. officials noted that they aimed to avoid any perception of differing stances between the allies, despite skepticism that the use of Storm Shadow missiles alone would significantly alter the war’s course.

Reflecting on the situation, Starmer said, “I think the next few weeks and months could be crucial. It’s very important that we support Ukraine in this vital war of freedom.” 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, involving tens of thousands of troops, sparked the most significant confrontation between Russia and the West since the Cold War. Putin portrays the conflict as part of an existential struggle with a declining and morally corrupt West, which, in his view, has disrespected Russia since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 by expanding into areas he considers part of Moscow’s sphere of influence, including Ukraine.

In contrast, the West and Ukraine describe the invasion as an imperialist land grab, pledging to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Currently, Russia occupies more than 18% of Ukrainian territory.