09/11 – Internationl News Story and Update

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s former chief Brexit negotiator, was appointed as France’s prime minister on September 5th, marking the end of two months of political deadlock. 

President Emmanuel Macron made the announcement following a series of discussions with key political figures in an attempt to resolve the impasse created by the inconclusive parliamentary elections in July.

At 73 years old, Barnier is a seasoned politician from the center-right Republicans party, has held multiple positions in Gaullist governments, including foreign minister under President Jacques Chirac. As a former European commissioner, he is well known in Britain for his firm approach during the Brexit negotiations. [The Economist] 

Barnier is considered to hold a no-nonsense demeanor and a sharp sense of humor, Barnier is an experienced, traditional politician, and he is more than twice the age of Gabriel Attal, the centrist he replaced. 

Although Barnier’s name had been circulating for weeks, he was not Macron’s initial choice. No political group had a majority in the French parliament following the July elections, and Macron struggled to find someone who could garner enough support across party lines to withstand a no-confidence vote. Barnier was ultimately chosen after other contenders, like former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and center-right Xavier Bertrand, faced the risk of opposition from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), the third-largest parliamentary bloc.

Barnier will be quickly tasked with tackling the looming issue of France’s urgent need to address its public finances. Outgoing finance minister Bruno Le Maire revealed that the budget deficit could reach 5.6% of GDP this year, exceeding the 5.1% initially projected and well above the EU’s 3% limit. Le Maire has called for €16 billion in additional savings for this year alone. The new government must present next year’s budget to parliament by October 1st. [The Economist] 

In recent days, leaders of the National Rally have outlined their conditions for support, which include measures on purchasing power, security, and immigration, the introduction of proportional representation in parliament, and “respect” for far-right lawmakers. 

Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally, gave her strongest indication yet of her willingness to cooperate with the new prime minister, Michel Barnier, in an interview with La Tribune on Sunday. Speaking about President Emmanuel Macron’s choice to replace Gabriel Attal after this summer’s election, Le Pen stated, “We don’t wish to cause obstructions.” [Politico 2] 

Centrist senator and Macron ally Hervé Marseille commented, “Marine Le Pen gives the kiss of death to this figure and then that one. The National Rally has 142 lawmakers, you can’t ignore them,” in an interview with Le Monde. [Politico] 

Although the National Rally failed to win the parliamentary election it had been expected to dominate, it has now emerged as a powerful influence. Le Pen played a pivotal role in the negotiations to select the next prime minister. Initially, conservative heavyweight Xavier Bertrand was a leading contender after meeting with center-right lawmakers who expressed support for a right-leaning prime minister. Macron even called Le Pen to discuss Bertrand and former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, another early frontrunner whose chances diminished by Monday. 

While the far right still has the power to topple Barnier’s government, pollster Bruno Jeanbart suggested they may hold back from doing so too quickly. “They have the fate of the government in their hands, but I’m not sure it’s in their interest to topple the government too quickly,” Jeanbart said, adding that the National Rally may prefer to let events unfold in anticipation of the next presidential election, acknowledging that “it’s difficult to run a country without winning the presidential election.” [Politico] 

Macron’s cooperation with the National Rally has raised concerns within his own camp. After dissolving parliament following the far right’s strong performance in the June European election, Macron had campaigned to prevent extreme parties from gaining power in Paris. 

Many believe he has now effectively given the National Rally significant leverage over the future government. 

A centrist lawmaker commented that recent developments do not “correspond to the spirit of the Republican front,” referencing the tradition of mainstream parties uniting to keep the far right from power. The lawmaker emphasized that Barnier’s fate is now in the hands of the National Rally. [Politico] 

“It’s undeniable that Michel Barnier seems to have the same position as we do on migration,” Le Pen told the French daily. [Politico 2] 

Another parliamentarian from Macron’s party blamed the left for failing to come up with innovative solutions. After some internal disagreements, the New Popular Front nominated 37-year-old civil servant Lucie Castets as their candidate for prime minister, arguing that their first-place finish entitled them to make the choice. However, Macron rejected Castets’ bid, citing concerns about institutional stability and predicting she wouldn’t survive a no-confidence vote in the divided National Assembly.

Marine Tondelier, leader of the Greens, criticized Macron for moving further to the right to placate the National Rally and ensure they wouldn’t bring down the next government. “He’s been constantly cozying up to the far right,” Tondelier remarked. [Politico] 

Opinion: 

Barnier, who adopted a strong stance on immigration during the Republicans’ 2021 presidential primary, seems to be less divisive among the hard-right. After his appointment, Le Pen expressed satisfaction, stating Barnier would at least show her voters respect. 

However, Barnier is not expected to be a compliant subordinate to Macron, as he has previously criticized the president, calling his leadership “solitary and arrogant.” Nonetheless, Barnier’s pro-European stance and international reputation for seriousness may reassure neighbors, financial markets, and French businesses. At his age, Barnier is also unlikely to have ambitions for the next presidential election in 2027.

Following his appointment Barnier will be forced to face political challenges right off the bat. The first of which is the fact that the left is strongly opposed to him. The New Popular Front, a left-wing coalition, holds the largest bloc in parliament with 193 of 577 seats. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical-left Unsubmissive France, declared that the election was “stolen” and has called for Macron’s impeachment. Although Barnier might be able to pass legislation with the support of 47 Republicans and most centrists, provided the RN does not block him, the left will likely continue to challenge him both in parliament and through protests. Mélenchon has already called for mass demonstrations on September 7th. [The Economist] 

Barnier faces quite the formidable task as he attempts to form the “unifying government” Macron hopes for, while implementing budget cuts, pacifying the left, managing the hard right, and navigating Macron’s tendency to micromanage.

Many believe that  Macron’s decision to appoint Barnier has handed the far right a significant victory. The survival of Michel Barnier’s incoming government will depend on the support of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, which came third in the recent snap election. 

His stance on immigration could be key in garnering at least passive support from the far right in parliament. A member of the right-wing Republicans party, Barnier has previously called for a temporary halt to non-European immigration for three to five years—a position that closely aligns with Le Pen’s. 

The left-wing New Popular Front, despite winning the most seats, did not secure a majority and has already pledged to back no-confidence motions against Barnier. With Macron’s coalition and the conservative Republican Right only holding 213 seats, far short of the 289 needed for a majority, Barnier will require backing from the far right to avoid an immediate collapse.

Now, Barnier must find a way to balance the interests of his center-right and centrist backers while also appeasing the far right, which opposes many of the proposed budget cuts aimed at addressing France’s growing debt.