08/28 – National News Update & Story

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially called an end to his campaign on Friday August 23. RFK Jr. followed up his announcement by formally  endorsing Donald Trump. 

Kennedy stated that he will  withdraw his name from ballots in 10 battleground states that are likely to determine the election outcome, while continuing to run as a candidate in other states.

Kennedy joined Trump onstage at a rally in Arizona just hours later. 

Kennedy mentioned in a news conference earlier that he had multiple meetings with Trump and his aides, during which he discovered they shared views on topics such as border security, free speech, and ending wars. 

“There are still many issues and approaches on which we continue to have very serious differences. But we are aligned on other key issues,” he told reporters. [Reuters]

He emphasized these points again when he appeared alongside Trump at the Arizona rally, where he reiterated his stance on key issues such as combating chronic illness and eliminating hazardous chemicals from the environment and food supply.

Kennedy also mentioned free speech, the war in Ukraine, and “a war on our children” as some of the reasons he would seek to withdraw his name from the ballot in key battleground states. [AP News] 

While Kennedy was on stage, the former president announced that if he were to return to the White House, he would establish a presidential commission on assassination attempts and release files related to the 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy.

RFK Jr. described their partnership as “a unity party,” an agreement that would “allow us to disagree publicly and privately and seriously.” Kennedy hinted that Trump had offered him a position if he returned to the White House, but neither he nor Trump provided specifics. [AP News] 

Last week, Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, floated the possibility that Kennedy might join Trump’s administration as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services.

Recent polls indicate Kennedy’s support is in the mid-single digits, with reasonable doubts about whether he could achieve even that in a general election.

There is some evidence that Kennedy remaining in the race could disadvantage Trump more than Harris. A July AP-NORC poll showed that Republicans were much more likely than Democrats to have a favorable opinion of Kennedy. Additionally, those who viewed Kennedy positively were significantly more likely to also have a favorable view of Trump (52%) compared to Harris (37%). [AP News] 

Opinion: 

Kennedy, an environmental lawyer and outspoken anti-vaccine advocate, entered the 2024 race as a challenger to President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination. As the son and nephew of two of the Democratic party’s icons who were tragically assassinated in the 1960s, his candidacy naturally attracted initial attention. 

At the time, many voters were disillusioned with both the aging Biden and the scandal-ridden Trump, leading to a surge in Kennedy’s popularity. Eventually, he became more disillusioned by the Democratic party who seemed to be purposefully pushing him out, and chose to run as an independent. Then by November 2023, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed him with a significant 20% support in a three-way race with Biden and Trump. [Reuters]

For a while, it seemed both Biden and Trump’s campaigns were concerned that Kennedy could pull enough votes to influence the election’s outcome. 

But, the dynamics of the race shifted dramatically in the last two months, especially after Trump survived an assassination attempt and the withering 81-year-old Biden gave way to Kamala Harris. As a result, voter interest in Kennedy declined sharply. A recent Ipsos poll revealed his national support had plummeted to just 4%, a small but potentially significant number in a tight race between Trump and Harris

There’s something to be said about Kennedy’s unexpected relevance throughout this race. His campaign was chaotic, starting as a Democrat, shifting to an Independent, and now ending by throwing his support behind the Republican candidate. Yet, his candidacy shed light on the sliver of potential for third-party candidates to build a legitimate following and challenge the dominance of the two-party system.

Kennedy’s run also highlighted the rigid, brutally structured nature of the political system, which is heavily skewed against outsiders. In a democracy where anyone is supposed to have the opportunity to rise through the ranks, the reality is that those at the top set the rules, and if they don’t want you to play, you won’t.

There’s a legitimate “lawfare” weaponized by the powerful, especially within the upper echelons of political parties. It was always a long shot for RFK Jr. to win this election, even if he had been on every state’s ballot. But the fact that it’s so difficult for an independent candidate to even get on the ballot and give voters a choice is outrageous.

For the past half-decade, Americans have grown increasingly disillusioned with their options for presidential candidates and frustrated with the two-party system, and yet, the stakes of the two-horse race make it so legitimately considering a competitive third option comes too far fetched. 

For Trump it seems seeking this endorsement at this point of the race makes sense logically. Trump needed to consolidate his base, and it seems quite clear that RFK supporters would lean toward Trump rather than Harris. This became much more coherent after Kennedy and his running mate Shanahan placed much of the blame on the Democratic Party for pushing them out of this race, and his tendency to brand himself as an outsider to the establishment.  

Trump’s polling numbers have undoubtedly taken a hit and he is in a very vulnerable place heading into this election now that Kamala has entered the race. Making sure that he can at least snatch up those extra few percentages in key swing states comes as a no-brainer at his current position. 

Whether this endorsement will ultimately influence the outcome of who will be in the White House next might be a stretch, but there’s no way to know for certain until we watch the tumultuous next few months play out.