08/25 – International News Update & Story

Lebanese militant group Hezbollah launched over hundreds of drones and rockets into Israel on Sunday. 

Israel reportedly preemptively  fired around one hundred jets into Lebanon to prevent a larger ongoing attack from Hezbollah. [Reuters]

So far three deaths have been confirmed in Lebanon and one in Israel. 

Both sides have apparently indicated they were happy to avoid further escalation for now, but warned that there could be more strikes to come.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the Iranian-backed proxy group’s barrage, which came as retaliation for the assassination of a senior commander last month, had been completed “as planned”.

Hezbollah claimed to have struck 11 Israeli bases in what it described as the “first phase” of its retaliatory response to the assassination of its military chief, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut by an Israeli air strike on July 30th. The group asserted “total success,” disregarded the Israeli attack, and hinted at the possibility of further retaliation. [The Economist]

However, the terror group would assess the impact of its strikes and “if the result is not enough, then we retain the right to respond another time”, he said.

Israel initiated air strikes before Hezbollah launched its barrage, according to Nasrallah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed these “pre-emptive” strikes thwarted a significantly larger Hezbollah attack, but Nasrallah asserted that they had minimal effect. Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks were aimed at an intelligence base near Tel Aviv, Nasrallah stated. Netanyahu countered that all drones targeting what he described as a strategic site in central Israel were intercepted. [Reuters]

A security source in Lebanon reported that at least 40 Israeli strikes hit various towns in the south of the country, marking one of the heaviest bombardments since the hostilities began in October.

The White House stated that U.S. President Joe Biden was closely monitoring the situation. “We will continue to support Israel’s right to defend itself, and we will keep working towards regional stability,” said National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett. 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was “deeply concerned” about the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah and urged both parties to immediately return to a ceasefire, according to his spokesperson. Egypt and Jordan also issued warnings against further escalation. 

Although the United States was not directly involved in Israel’s strikes on Sunday, it did provide some intelligence regarding incoming Hezbollah attacks, a U.S. official said. [Reuters]

Israel’s foreign minister emphasized that the country is not aiming for a full-scale war, though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cautioned, “This is not the end of the story. We are determined to do everything we can to defend our country … whoever harms us – we harm him.”

Both sides have communicated their desire to avoid further escalation, with the overall sentiment being that the exchange was “done,” according to a couple diplomats. [Reuters] 

A Hezbollah official stated that the group had postponed its retaliation to allow time for ceasefire negotiations and had carefully calibrated its attack to avoid provoking a full-scale war.

Palestinian terror group Hamas announced on Sunday that it rejects the new conditions put forward by Israel in the Gaza ceasefire talks. [Reuters 2]

Months of intermittent talks have failed to reach an agreement to end Israel’s devastating military campaign in Gaza or to secure the release of the remaining hostages taken by Hamas during the militant group’s October 7 attack on Israel.

A key issue in the ongoing talks, mediated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, is the Israeli presence in the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow 14.5 km (nine-mile) strip of land along Gaza’s southern border with Egypt. 

Hamas has accused Israel of reneging on its commitment to withdraw troops from the Corridor and introducing new conditions, including the screening of displaced Palestinians as they return to the more densely populated northern areas of the enclave once the ceasefire begins.

“We will not accept discussions about retractions from what we agreed to on July 2 or any new conditions,” Hamas official Osama Hamdan stated on the group’s Al-Aqsa TV on Sunday. [Reuters 2]

Back in July, Hamas agreed to a U.S. proposal to initiate talks on releasing Israeli hostages, including soldiers and men, 16 days after the first phase of an agreement intended to end the Gaza war, a senior Hamas source informed Reuters.

Opinion: 

This latest rejection of the proposal adds further doubt that the recent U.S.-led breakthroughs in diplomatic talks will be able to actually achieve an end to the conflict in the Middle East. 

With the recent and largest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel on its northern border, coupled with the looming threat of a retaliatory strike from Iran, tensions in the broader conflict between Israel and its regional adversaries have flared up once again.

For about a month now, the entire region has been anticipating the promised retaliation by Hezbollah and Iran for the assassinations of Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, who was killed while attending Iran’s presidential inauguration. 

The delay in this response partly highlights the challenging position Iran faces. While Iran could launch a direct retaliation, a similarly large missile and drone attack on Israel in April was mostly intercepted by Israel and its allies, showing more of Iran’s limitations than the threat it was intending to convey. Repeating such an attempt could further expose Iran’s weaknesses rather than demonstrate its strength. 

On the other hand, if Iran were to plan an even larger direct strike, it could provoke a full-scale war with severe consequences. To deter Iran, the United States has deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Middle East.

Hezbollah’s rocket and drone strikes offer a somewhat safer alternative for Iran, which sponsors the Lebanese militant group. It’s also uncertain whether Hezbollah itself desires a full-scale war with Israel in Lebanon. Hezbollah likely knew that Israeli intelligence would detect its preparations and carry out pre-emptive strikes. 

Both Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, want to maintain their image by punishing Israel, but they, along with Israel, are trying to avoid military actions that could lead to a more significant conflict.

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Israel’s strike was “not the end of the story,” but Israeli officials are keen to stress that they are not looking to escalate the situation further. After a failed direct attack in April, Iran may have reverted to its earlier strategy of using proxies like Hezbollah to fight Israel. If this is the case, it could signal a surprising win for the relatively moderate approach of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, over the hardline generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who have been advocating for severe retaliation. [The Economist]

However, whether a ceasefire in Gaza will ease the broader conflict between Iran, its proxies, and Israel remains uncertain.

There are still many variables at play: the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, the ongoing struggle between reformers and hardliners in Iran, and how long Israel will be willing to endure rocket attacks on its northern border before it becomes fed up and decides to launch a more extensive campaign against Hezbollah to eliminate its massive missile arsenal supplied by Iran. 

The latest rejection of the proposal adds further doubt that the recent U.S.-led breakthroughs in diplomatic talks will be able to actually achieve an end to the conflict in the Middle East. 

With the recent and largest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel on its northern border, coupled with the looming threat of a retaliatory strike from Iran, tensions in the broader conflict between Israel and its regional adversaries have flared up once again. 

Even if the current uptick in hostilities subsides for now, the larger conflict in the region seems far from over.