08/22 – Political Opinion Piece

We are now less than 75 days away from the 2024 presidential election. Following a summer marked by historic political events, the stage is set for the nation to decide between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as the 47th President of the United States.

At this moment, there is a growing likelihood that Donald Trump could face another defeat this November and here are several factors as to whyI think this could be what ultimately culminates the outcome of the presidential election to go against Trump: 

• Campaign Momentum: Trump’s campaign has lost significant momentum, particularly as Kamala Harris launched her campaign with a powerful surge, fueled by hundreds of millions in donations. This financial boost has given her a substantial advantage.

• MAGA’s Polarization: The “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement, once a rallying cry, has become increasingly isolating, characterized by a tone that is often perceived as attacking and negative. A sizable portion of voters neither like Trump nor see him as the most fit candidate for the presidency. However, these same voters might still be swayed to support him to prevent Kamala Harris from assuming office and continuing what they see as a declining direction for the United States.

• Rhetoric and Alienation: Trump’s harsh rhetoric, often laced with insults and attacks, alienates voters who are not die-hard MAGA supporters. To succeed, he needs to soften his approach and broaden his appeal beyond his base.

• Focus on Slander: Trump’s strategy has been heavily reliant on slandering his opponents rather than courting undecided voters. This approach could backfire if he fails to address the concerns of those who are still on the fence.

• Policy Opportunities: Policy issues, particularly those related to border security and national safety, are ripe for the taking. If Trump can address these concerns in a way that reassures single-issue voters, he may be able to regain lost ground.

• Impact of RFK: The loss of percentages to RFK could hurt Trump’s chances, as every vote siphoned away could be crucial in a tight race. As of right now Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has still not ended his election campaign and endorsed Donald Trump in exchange for a promised position in his administration, so this one will be an interesting development to keep an eye on. 

• Media Influence: The media landscape is overwhelmingly powerful, with significant backing for the Democratic campaign. This media advantage, characterized by effective priming, framing, and outreach, has so far worked in favor of Kamala Harris. 

• Polling Worries: Recent polls show troubling trends for Trump in critical battleground states. Even traditionally red states like Nevada and Arizona are now in question, adding to the campaign’s challenges.

• Unfortunate Timing: Trump’s favorability saw a boost following an assassination attempt, but this was quickly overshadowed by Biden stepping down and Kamala Harris stepping in as the Democratic nominee.

• VP Selection Issues: Trump’s choice of JD Vance as his running mate appears to be a misstep. Vance’s low favorability and inability to connect with undecided voters, particularly among younger demographics, have not helped the campaign. There’s a sense that even Trump himself regrets the pick, as Vance comes off as more conservative and, debatably, more eccentric.

With less than two months remaining, the Trump campaign must urgently address these issues if they hope to avoid an election loss that once seemed improbable. Above all, Trump needs to reignite his campaign with new energy, focus on holding rallies, and make a strong push in crucial Midwestern battleground states. The path to the Oval Office runs through these states, and without a renewed effort, the campaign may see its chances slip away.