08/14 – International News Update

According to three senior Iranian officials, only a negotiated ceasefire agreement in Gaza might prevent Iran from launching direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. [Reuters]

Iran has pledged a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which occurred during his visit to Tehran late last month, with Tehran holding Israel responsible. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has dispatched warships and a submarine to the Middle East to strengthen Israel’s defenses.

A senior Iranian security official indicated that Iran, along with its allies like Hezbollah, would initiate a direct attack if the Gaza talks collapse or if Iran perceives Israel is stalling negotiations. The sources did not specify how much time Iran would allow for the talks before taking action.

Following the deaths of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, there is heightened concern about a broader Middle East conflict. In recent days, Iran has engaged in intense discussions with Western countries and the U.S. about how to calibrate its response. 

The U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed on Tuesday that Washington is urging allies to help persuade Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described efforts to engage with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, scheduled to begin on Thursday, possibly in Egypt or Qatar.

“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. stated on Friday. However, Iran’s foreign ministry criticized calls for restraint, arguing they “contradict principles of international law.” Neither Iran’s foreign ministry nor the Revolutionary Guards Corps responded to requests for comment. Similarly, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the U.S. State Department did not provide comments. [Reuters]

“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby remarked on Monday. “If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added. [Reuters]

Over the weekend, Hamas expressed doubts about whether the talks would proceed. Israel and Hamas have engaged in several rounds of negotiations in recent months without reaching a final ceasefire agreement.

In Israel, many analysts believe a response is imminent following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.

UPDATE ON TALKS

Hamas has expressed growing doubt in the United States’ capacity to effectively mediate a cease-fire in Gaza. Ahead of scheduled talks, Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, voiced concerns over the U.S. role, emphasizing that the militant group will only engage in discussions centered on the implementation of a proposal previously outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden and backed internationally. [AP News]

The cease-fire proposal, initially labeled by the U.S. as an Israeli initiative, has seen contentious negotiations, with both Hamas and Israel accusing each other of obstructing progress. Central to the discord is Israel’s insistence on maintaining a lasting military presence in key areas of Gaza after any cease-fire—a demand that has recently become public and one that Hamas vehemently opposes.

Hamdan, in an interview with The Associated Press, underscored Hamas’ stance, stating that any further discussions should focus on the practicalities of implementing the cease-fire rather than renegotiating terms. “We have informed the mediators that … any meeting should be based on talking about implementation mechanisms and setting deadlines rather than negotiating something new,” Hamdan declared, adding that Hamas sees no value in participating otherwise. [AP News]

Hamdan accused Israel of bad faith in the negotiations, alleging that Israel’s inconsistent participation and shifting demands have stymied progress. Despite these challenges, Hamdan provided documentation showing Hamas’ attempts to add guarantors like Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations to the cease-fire process—a move consistently rejected by Israel, which insists on sticking to the original mediators: the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar.

The Israeli government, however, disputes Hamas’ narrative. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office recently stated that their requested changes to the cease-fire proposal were merely “clarifications” rather than obstacles, accusing Hamas of being the real impediment to peace by seeking numerous amendments. [AP News]

The conflict’s volatility was highlighted by recent events, including the deaths of key figures in both Hamas and Hezbollah, which have raised fears of a wider regional war. 

Amidst a brief truce in November that saw the release of over 100 Israeli hostages, subsequent cease-fire talks have repeatedly collapsed, leaving around 110 captives still in Gaza, some believed to be dead.

Hamdan accused Israel of intensifying its attacks on Hamas leaders following the group’s tentative agreement to the latest cease-fire proposal from mediators. A notable incident occurred on July 13, when an Israeli operation in Gaza reportedly resulted in the death of Mohammed Deif, the elusive leader of Hamas’ military wing, along with over 90 others, according to local health officials. Despite these reports, Hamdan claimed that Deif is still alive. [AP News]

The situation escalated further two weeks later with the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, an event that both Hamas and Iran attributed to Israeli actions. In response, Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar, its Gaza chief and a key figure in the October 7 attack on Israel, to succeed Haniyeh. This leadership change marks a shift from Haniyeh, who was seen as a more moderate figure, to Sinwar, known for his hardline stance. 

Hamdan acknowledged that there are challenges and delays in maintaining communication with Sinwar, who is believed to be hiding deep within Gaza’s tunnel network. However, he insisted that these difficulties do not significantly hinder the ongoing negotiations.

Israel has expressed concern that Hamas might drag out negotiations indefinitely, using them as a cover to regroup. On the other hand, Hamas fears that Israel could resume hostilities once its most vulnerable hostages are freed.

The prospect of Israel maintaining a military presence in strategic areas of Gaza has further complicated talks. Although Hamas insists on a full Israeli withdrawal, recent reports suggest Israel is pushing for control over key border regions and internal routes, proposals that Hamas has yet to formally acknowledge.

Despite the immense suffering endured by Palestinians, Hamdan was resolute that Hamas would not surrender its demands, asserting, “A cease-fire is one thing, and surrender is something else.” [AP News]

The coming days will determine whether these entrenched positions can be reconciled or if the region will continue its descent into deeper conflict.