08/13 – International News Story & Updates

Ukraine’s forces launched a surprise invasion into Russian territory last week. 

Early morning on August 6, Ukraine launched its unexpected cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, located to the northeast. The raid has been ongoing for six days now, with Russia already ceded control of more than 350 square miles of its territory to Ukrainian troops. [CNN] 

The governor of Kursk, the region under attack by Ukrainian troops, ordered authorities to speed up the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. On Saturday Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, publicly acknowledged the incursion for the first time and said it was bringing “exactly the kind of pressure that is needed—pressure on the aggressor”. The operation is Ukraine’s biggest cross-border incursion since Russia invaded it in 2022. [The Economist] 

Russian authorities began evacuating civilians from parts of Belgorod, a border region, as Ukraine’s army continued its advance into Kursk, a neighboring Russian region. 

By August 8th, Ukrainian forces had advanced to Sudzha, located 10km from the border, and Korenevo, 15km within Russian territory. Intense battles are ongoing in both areas, with reports indicating that smaller Ukrainian units have pushed further into Russian soil. Social media footage reveals the aftermath of these clashes, with destroyed buildings and the bodies of soldiers lying on roads riddled with craters. Videos from the operation’s first day also show a large group of Russian prisoners being led away under armed guard. [The Economist]

Early on Sunday, Kursk officials reported that 13 people were injured when debris from a destroyed Ukrainian missile struck a nine-story residential building in the city. [Reuters]

Around 76,000 residents have fled, prompting Russian authorities to declare a state of emergency in the area. The lack of a well-coordinated evacuation has led to widespread anger. Vladimir Putin described the situation as a major “provocation.” Volodymyr Artiukh, head of Ukraine’s military administration in Sumy, stated that Ukraine’s success served as a “cold shower” for the Russians, adding, “They are now experiencing what we’ve endured for years, since 2014. This is a historical event.” [The Economist 2]

Russian authorities swiftly evacuated residents and implemented a broad security crackdown in three border regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, bolstered its troop presence along its border with Ukraine, accusing Kyiv of airspace violations. [Reuters]

In his video address, Zelenskyy mentioned discussions with top Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, pledging to respond decisively in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. 

“Today, I received several reports from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding the front lines and our actions to push the war onto the aggressor’s territory,” Zelenskyy said late on Saturday. “Ukraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and is ensuring the exact kind of pressure that is needed—pressure on the aggressor.” [Reuters]

Russian President Vladimir Putin held an operational meeting on Monday, where he emphasized the need for his military to “push and drive the enemy out of our territories” and secure the border, as reported by the Kremlin. According to local authorities, Ukraine currently controls 28 settlements in Russia’s Kursk region. [Politico] 

Putin also cast blame onto Western countries who he labels as the masters of Ukraine’s plot to incite cross-border violence and heighten destabilization. 

As of Monday August 12, As many as 180,000 Russian civilians are being evacuated from regions near the border with Ukraine as the Kremlin scrambles to deal with Ukraine’s continued cross-border incursion. [Politico 2] 

According to a Ukrainian official, Russia has withdrawn some troops from southern Ukraine and redeployed them within its own borders to counter an intensifying offensive by Kyiv’s forces. 

“Russia has moved some of its units from the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in southern Ukraine,” said Dmytro Lykhoviy, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian army, in a statement on Tuesday Aug 13. [Politico 3]

Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and currently occupies 18% of Ukrainian land. Prior to the unexpected assault on Russian soil, Ukraine had been steadily losing ground to Russian forces, despite receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in support from the U.S. and Europe intended to halt and potentially reverse the Russian advances. [Reuters 2]

Opinion: 

The Kursk raid has been cloaked in secrecy, catching Western governments off guard. Even a Ukrainian general-staff source near the border admitted to not fully understanding the operation, revealing that troops were ordered to prepare on August 4th without being told their destination. The surprise and silence surrounding the raid are reminiscent of Ukraine’s rapid offensive in Kharkiv province in late 2022. [The Economist]

Unlike previous cross-border raids led mainly by Ukraine’s military intelligence, this operation is closely linked to the new and often criticized commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, with regular army units participating for the first time. The high stakes mean that General Syrsky’s career could be on the line. Reports from Ukrainian hospitals indicate rising casualty numbers, leading some to question the wisdom of committing so many troops to the incursion while other critical frontlines are stretched thin. The operation’s ultimate success will determine whether this strategy was justified

However, this particular incursion into Kursk, following setbacks for Russia in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, marks what some see as the “fourth major failure” of Russian generals in mechanized warfare.

A more realistic goal might be to establish an embarrassing “buffer zone” along the border, similar to Russia’s attempts in Kharkiv over the past few months. This zone could even serve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. 

An intelligence source notes that Russia had been trying to secure a solid position, but now faces a crisis, unable to defend its own territory. [The Economist]

While maintaining any new Ukrainian line within Russian territory would be challenging, it would deliver a symbolic blow to Vladimir Putin. For a nation in desperate need of positive news over the past year, such a development would be significant. 

This marks Kyiv’s most substantial incursion into Russian territory since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Ukrainian incursion marks the most significant breach into Russia since Nazi Germany’s invasion in June 1941, which eventually led to the pivotal Battle of Kursk in 1943. 

The presence of foreign forces on Russian territory serves as a humiliation for both the military and President Putin, especially amidst his reassurances to the Russian population that they would not feel the effects of war since launching the Ukrainian invasion. 

Nearly a week into the operation, it seems to have significantly boosted morale for Ukraine and its Western allies, who seem cautiously supportive of the effort. 

Some elements of Ukraine’s operation seem to have been carefully orchestrated, with operational security providing the critical advantage of surprise. A source from the general staff involved in the operation stated, “We sent our most combat-ready units to the weakest point on their border,” noting that conscripted Russian soldiers faced elite paratroopers and quickly surrendered. [The Economist 2]

The operation does however also show signs of being hastily prepared, as the three soldiers interviewed were pulled from high-pressure front lines in the east with almost no notice.

The ultimate objective of Ukraine’s operation remains uncertain as whether the aim is to advance further toward the city of Kursk, to occupy the territory as leverage in future negotiations, or simply to withdraw after dealing a blow to Vladimir Putin’s image. Ukraine does not appear to be seriously reinforcing its positions, however the combat still flares on and they haven’t shown any signs of retreat just yet. 

At a minimum, the operation seems intended to divert Russian troops away from the heavily contested areas of Kharkiv and Donbas, which are central to the war. Early indications suggest mixed results—while Russia has redeployed some forces from the Kharkiv front, it has moved far fewer from the critical Donbas region.

– P.T.