08/01 – International News Update & Story

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran after attending the inauguration of the country’s new president, Iran and the militant group said early Wednesday July 31.  [AP News] 

Although not having publicly claimed responsibility, it is widely believed to have been killed by a targeted Israeli airstrike. 

Hamas and Iran quickly blamed Israel for the shock assassination, pledging a harsh and vengeful retaliation.. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday morning that Iran considers it its “duty to take revenge” for the assassination. “With this action, the criminal and terrorist Zionist regime prepared the ground for a harsh punishment for itself,” he said. [Politico]

In a statement, Hamas said its leader was killed in “a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran,” and vowed revenge. [Politico] 

This comes as the second major regional assassination in under 24 hours. The Israeli military killed Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in an airstrike in a Beirut suburb on Tuesday July 30. [AP News] 

The killing came as a response to the rocket attack Saturday on the town of Majdal Shams that killed 12 young people in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israeli leaders and officials deemed Shukr responsible for the deadly strike. 

The U.N. Security Council is convening an emergency meeting today as the U.N.’s top leader calls for international action to prevent escalating tensions in the Middle East. 

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned against a “dangerous escalation” of hostilities in the region. [BBC] 

Iran requested the emergency session, urging the U.N.’s most powerful body to address “Israeli aggression and terrorist attacks.” Iran accuses Israel of killing Hamas leader Haniyeh, with its U.N. ambassador stating that the strikes “indicate an intention to escalate conflict and expand the war throughout the entire region.” [AP News]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also weighed in on the issue,  releasing a statement on X condemning the “treacherous assassination” and holding Israel accountable for the attack, which he claimed was intended to undermine the Palestinian cause. He further asserted that “Zionist barbarism will not be able to achieve its goals.” [Politico] 

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations also accused the United States of being responsible for the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, asserting that it could not have occurred without US authorization and intelligence support.

Earlier today, US Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood stated that “the United States was not aware of or involved in the apparent death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh,” and added that the US has “no independent confirmation regarding Hamas’s claims about his death.” [CNN] 

Ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel regarding the conflict in Gaza are now very much at stake. 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has encouraged Qatar’s prime minister, a crucial mediator in cease-fire negotiations, to persist in efforts to reach an agreement that would “secure the release of hostages, alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people, and unlock the possibility of broader stability,” according to the State Department. Hamas’ top political officials are based in Qatar. [AP News] 

 On social media, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani questioned, “Can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace requires serious partners and a global stance against the disregard for human life.” [AP News] 

UPDATE

On Thursday, Israel confirmed it killed the head of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Deif, in a mid-July airstrike. [Politico] 

Top Iranian officials are set to meet with representatives from Iran’s regional allies, including Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, on Thursday to discuss potential retaliation against Israel following the assassination of a Haniyeh in Tehran. [Reuters]

Representatives from Iran’s Palestinian allies, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, along with Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthi movement, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Iraqi resistance groups, will all attend the meeting in Tehran, sources told Reuters. 

“Iran and the resistance members will conduct a thorough assessment after the meeting in Tehran to determine the best and most effective way to retaliate against the Zionist regime (Israel),” said a senior Iranian official. Another Iranian official confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior members of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards would be in attendance. [Reuters] 

“The response of Iran and the resistance front is currently under review,” General Mohammad Baqeri, Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, told state TV on Thursday. “This will undoubtedly happen, and the Zionist regime (Israel) will regret it.”

Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency, “All fronts of the resistance will take revenge for Haniyeh’s blood.” Former senior Revolutionary Guards Commander Esmail Kosari stated to state TV, “Iran’s response to the assassination of Martyr Haniyeh will be stronger than before.” [Reuters] 

Opinion: 

Israel has known for quite a while that Haniyeh has been living and leading out of Qatar for quite a while now, which indicates that Israel had a particular motive for assassinating the Hamas leader at this time, place, and in this fashion. 

Taking him out while in Tehran, on the day of inauguration of the Iranian president was surely symbolic and calculated in order to send a clear message to the Iranian regime itself and its proxy groups throughout the region. 

Assassinating him on Iranian soil, in the proximity of presidential events is extremely embarrassing for Iran and specifically at Pezeshkian’s swearing-in ceremony serves as a distasteful warning toward his expressed desire of trying to reset diplomatic relations with the United States. 

Israel is strongly against this sort of renewed dialogue between their greatest enemy and strongest ally whom they rely on so heavily for defense against the Islamic regime.  

Israel is sending bold messages throughout the Middle East to all of its adversaries. Iran’s transnational ‘axis of resistance’ that extends into other states like Palestine, Lebanon, or even home in Iran, are clearly not safe from the extent and capabilities of Israel’s intelligence and operational forces. The Israeli government and its leaders put this on full display by assassinating both Hamas’ political leader and one of Hezbollah’s military commanders—both in the capital of hostile countries, and within hours of each other. 

Ceasefire talks in Gaza are more fragile than ever now considering Hamas will probably be less willing to concede and come to an agreement following Israel’s sudden assassination of its political leader. Haniyeh played an important role in these negotiations for a ceasefire aimed at ending the Israel-Hamas war. 

The likelihood of military escalation throughout the region is ripe considering the blatant show of force and provocation by striking a valued political figure through such a humiliating manner  in Iran’s capital. The Islamic regime has no choice but to pledge and execute what they view as a dutifully required show of retaliation.  

A response from Lebanon’s Hezbollah following the killing of their top commander Fuad Shukr is even more certain now coupled with the aggravating assassination of Haniyeh in Iran. 

Within a week the cautious optimism that surrounded the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza has now quickly turned into a bracing for impact against inevitable retaliation that risks escalation into a wider regional war. 

It will be interesting to see how Iran and its proxies will choose to respond to this attack and whether Israel will then take it one step further. This is the dangerous reality of tit-for-tat and the dangerous delicacy of maintaining deterrence. 

It still seems unlikely that Iran, Hezbollah, or Israel would be willing or ready to actually engage in an all out war with each other at this moment, so it is vital that following the manner and degree of Iran’s retaliation to the provocative assassination of Haniyeh, Israel chooses restraint and all parties pivot towards a hopeful ceasefire in Gaza regardless. 

Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu can claim a more potent ‘victory’ now if they advertise the war as a great win following the eradication of these leaders of their enemy militias and reach a deal that ends the ongoing campaign in Gaza. 

Whether Netanyahu personally wants this sort of outcome where his existential war effort concludes and the focus of Israeli politics turns inwards and puts the spotlight on him and his relatively unpopular government is a different question.

For now, international allies like the United States especially must try to finally utilize their influence and demonstrate a significant and effective push towards a ceasefire in Gaza before the window of opportunity gets smaller and smaller.

– P.T.