07/22 – International News Update & Analysis

This past Sunday, July 21, President Joe Biden publicly announced his decision to step down as the Democratic nominee for President and not seek reelection in November. 

Following his announcement on X, Biden offered his full support and endorsement to Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee for president at this year’s election. [X] 

Biden pledged to finish his tenure and remain in office as president until the end of his term in January 2025. [Reuters]

Immediately following the announcement, Harris and her campaign began garnering support from Democrats throughout the party. Recent surveys show that Harris already has well over enough delegates’ support to win the official delegate vote for nominee at the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19. [Reuters] 

Recent reports claim that the Harris campaign has raised over $81 million dollars in 24 hours. 

Since Biden’s resignation from the presidential race and public endorsement of Harris, virtually all of the current Vice President’s possible challengers for the nomination have come out supporting Harris’ campaign. This includes top governor choices such as Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gavin Newsom of California, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois. 

The path to the nomination is all but clear for Harris at this point in the race. 

The AFL-CIO labor union federation, which represented more than 12.5 million labor workers, also declared its institutional support for Harris. [Reuters] 

Harris also received the support of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and both Bill and Hillary Clinton. She did not, however, receive an endorsement from former President Barack Obama, who praised Biden for his decision to step down from the race and stated that an “outstanding nominee” would be selected in an open process at the upcoming convention. [New York Post] 

Recent polls show that Harris typically falls on average about two percentage points behind Donald Trump. The 46% to 48% difference is slightly better for Harris compared to how Biden polled on average – three percentage points behind the Republican presidential nominee, 47% to 44%. [Fox News]

BACKGROUND

Kamala Harris’ political ascent began as a prosecutor and later as California’s attorney-general, where she strategically navigated the state’s fluid and future-focused political landscape. Harris has often adjusted her positions to align with the political climate, leading critics to label her as opportunistic and ambitious, a reputation that seems to stick with her aside a lack of charisma. [Economist]  

Harris’ ethnic background offers an advantageous political persona as the daughter of civil-rights activists and immigrants from India and Jamaica. She seems to have struggled to have leveraged this identity towards garnering effective national support from minority and immigrant demographics throughout her career in high politics. 

When it comes to policy issues, Harris would be tied to the Biden administration’s record, which has seen legislative achievements but also faced unpopularity on various fronts. Her role in addressing southern border issues has already drawn attacks from Trump’s allies and will surely be the target of increased criticism throughout this race. [Economist]

On the topic of foreign policy, Harris maintains a relatively centrist stance, in support of maintaining strong aid to Ukraine and aligning with traditional Democratic views. Her campaign would contrast sharply with Trump and his America-first agenda, emphasizing global leadership.

Opinion:

Many people saw this outcome of Biden’s nominee resignation following his disastrous debate performance in late June. 

The Democratic Party shamelessly misled its supporters and the American public, insisting for months that Biden was the best candidate and fit to run, effectively eliminating potential challengers during the primary. Now, as Biden’s chances of victory appeared more dismal than ever, the Democratic elites have abandoned him, and he has finally succumbed to the pressure to step down.

During his 2020 presidential campaign, Joe Biden promised to choose a woman of color as his vice-presidential running mate, leading to the selection of Kamala Harris. Despite her poor performance in the 2020 nomination race, she has now inherited the nomination due to Biden’s apparent cognitive decline and his adherence to a self-imposed diversity quota.

Senior Democrats and left-wing media, after urging Biden to abandon his reelection bid, are now portraying him as a phenomenal and selfless leader who had one of the most successful presidencies. These same individuals, who previously begged him to step down in light of recent polls and public opinion, are now depicting his resignation as an act of patriotism and service. Is this truly the mark of an American hero, or simply the reality of an 81-year-old man finally buckling under pressure from powerful party elites and wealthy donors?

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Democratic voters have been stripped of their agency in selecting their preferred nominee and participating in a democratic process. Biden was virtually pushed through every stage of the Democratic primary without contenders, leaving voters no opportunity to support other candidates despite clear public opposition to another Biden vs. Trump rematch.

The Biden-Harris ticket’s main campaign point is to protect and preserve democracy. However, by not allowing voters to choose their candidate, the Democrats have shown that the millionaire donor class, not the voters, selects the nominee.

At 59, Harris’s age is a notable improvement over Biden’s 81, addressing the primary concern of voters regarding his age and physical ability to lead.

Although Harris is not much more popular than Biden, her campaign will focus on positioning her as the last possible opponent to Trump. She will adopt a full anti-Trump stance in every advertisement, seeking the votes of those opposed to his return to the White House. 

Harris and her campaign are likely to take the approach of framing this refreshed campaign as the prosecutor vs. the felon in their aims of discrediting and defeating Trump. 

Harris will likely make her position in defense of abortion and instating Roe v. Wade as a central feature of her candidacy, as well as staunch support for clean energy and environmental justice. 

The Republican Party and Trump campaign have expressed discontent with the Democrats’ decision to replace Biden with Harris so late in the race, citing millions of dollars spent on attacking Biden. 

They also recognize that defeating Kamala Harris will be slightly more challenging than defeating Joe Biden, which was shaping up to be a possible landslide in November given recent political developments.

Nevertheless, given the current disarray surrounding the Democratic party, a Trump victory still seems more likely for now.However, it will undoubtedly be a tight election this November, and it will be interesting to see how the Harris vs. Trump race unfolds in the coming months.

– P.T.