07/10 – International News Update

Washington, DC – At the NATO Summit celebrating the alliance’s 75th anniversary, President Joe Biden delivered a speech confidently declaring positive assertions for Ukraine’s victory in the ongoing war and the determination to halt Putin’s advances.

“Today NATO is stronger than it’s ever been in its history,” Biden asserted. [Reuters] 

Ukraine aims to increase pressure on the Biden administration during this week’s summit, pushing for the removal of restrictions on using American-supplied weapons in Russian territory. 

Andriy Yermak, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, revealed in an interview with POLITICO that Ukraine seeks permission to deploy longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems for strikes inside Russia. [Politico] 

Currently, Ukraine uses these weapons in Crimea but wants U.S. approval to launch them from other areas.While the U.S. granted limited permission in May for strikes near Kharkiv, the White House has prohibited using long-range missiles against targets deep within Russia. 

The U.S. remains cautious, fearing such strikes could provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict. However, Yermak argues that these concerns should not overshadow Ukraine’s need to retaliate effectively against Russian aggression.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that he expects NATO leaders to agree on a substantial new aid package for Ukraine. Results from the summit are likely to include advanced air-defense equipment, new military training centers, and more than sixty F-16 fighter jets. [The Economist] 

A primary goal of the summit is to ensure Ukraine remains on an expected and “irreversible” path to NATO membership. Additionally, the U.S. decided to deploy long-range missiles to Germany by 2026, marking the first stationing of such weapons since the Cold War, sending a clear message to Putin.

This is also an open and confirmatory violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by the U.S. and Soviet Union in the late 80s, a mutual agreement to minimize and deplete their arsenals of intermediate and short range land missiles. 

The treaty collapsed in 2019 due to U.S. claims of continued Russian violations. 

The stationing of long range ICBMs in Germany displays a clear message to Putin, as this caliber of American weapons being stationed on the continent has not occurred since the Cold War [Reuters]

Opinion: 

President Joe Biden appears to be focusing on foreign policy as his presidency progresses. He is likely to continue emphasizing his robust military support and funding for Ukraine, especially following his poor performance in a recent debate against presidential election opponent, Donald Trump. 

Biden’s approval ratings have dropped, and concerns about his cognitive ability to serve another term are at an all-time high, with several Democratic members of Congress calling for him to step down from the nomination.

With the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, NATO’s role is under intense scrutiny, particularly given Donald Trump’s critiques and his questionable commitment to NATO. These concerns have already shaken alliance members, leading to an 18% increase in defense spending among allies this year.  [Politico] 

Part of this increase might be an effort to “Trump-proof” the alliance, though political and geographic factors also play a significant role in spending habits.

For countries bordering Russia, such as the Baltic states and Poland, fortifying defense systems and maintaining a strong commitment to NATO is crucial. Poland, for example, has allocated 4% of its annual GDP to defense spending, with President Andrzej Duda calling for allies to raise the target spending percentage to 3% of annual GDP. [Politico] 

In contrast, smaller nations farther from Russia have less justification and incentive to meet the annual GDP percent requirement on defense.

Europe’s security is fragile, and the threat posed by Russian aggression will likely lead to increased focus and spending on national security and defense. The potential for a second Trump term adds to the unpredictability, prompting European NATO leaders to strive for unity and heightened attention on stopping Russia and defending Ukraine as the war escalates.

To promote stability and counter the unpredictability of a potential NATO future under Trump, Biden will likely assert that the United States will remain a leading protector of the alliance. He will contrast this with the image of Trump as an unpredictable wildcard who could destabilize Europe and appease Putin. 

The Biden administration has repeatedly surpassed previous limits on military support for Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelensky urging the U.S. to allow deeper strikes into Russian territory. 

They remain hesitant on this move as it will almost certainly provoke a sharp response and further escalation from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many leaders even fear an expansion of the war that leads to direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. 

Biden’s steadfast support for Ukraine and its resilience against Russian aggression remains one of his few avenues for garnering additional campaign support, as he continues to face calls for his resignation ahead of the upcoming November election.

– P.T.