07/08 – International News Update

France’s second round of snap national elections concluded on July 7, resulting in a surprising outcome where the country’s leftist coalition secured the most parliamentary seats, contrary to earlier predictions of a rightwing victory.

Following losses by President Macron’s centrist Renaissance party in the June 9 European Parliament elections, Macron called for two rounds of snap legislative elections, scheduled for June 30 and July 7. 

These elections were originally planned for 2027, coinciding with the next presidential elections. The decision to hold early elections was influenced by calls from the National Rally’s leader, Jordan Bardella, and others for early parliamentary elections. In a televised address on June 9, Macron stated, “I have heard your message,” and added, “I am giving you the choice of your legislative future by voting.”

France’s right wing has gained popularity in recent years, with the far-right National Rally party, formerly led by Marine Le Pen, leading in opinion polls. The party has taken strong stances on immigration, with its new leader since 2022, Jordan Bardella, promising to cut taxes on fuel and electricity, tackle immigration, and address security issues. [NPR]

Leading up to the final round of elections, Macron’s centrist Renaissance party was polling in third place, behind the National Rally and the leftist coalition, the New Popular Front. The first round of elections on June 30 saw the National Rally party in the lead.

According to the latest report by Le Monde, the results of the July 7 vote left the New Popular Front with 182 seats, Macron’s centrist coalition Ensemble with 168 seats, and Le Pen’s National Rally in third place with 143 seats. [Le Monde]

No party was able to achieve the 289-seat majority needed to control the French National Assembly. [Politico]

The current Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, has announced that he will step down following the result. President Macron will now seek to appoint a new prime minister in parliament, a role that typically goes to a member of the party with the parliamentary majority. 

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, head of the far-left France Unbowed party, demanded that Macron choose a prime minister from the New Popular Front coalition, stating, “The president has the power and the duty to call the New Popular Front to govern. It is ready.” 

Meanwhile, Bardella criticized the “unnatural alliance” between Macron and the leftists, claiming it was an attempt to stop National Rally’s significant surge in popularity.

Opinion:

Voters have spoken and as no one party was able to secure a majority, France now has a hung and divided parliament. This will usher in a period of uncertainty and political gridlock throughout France. [Reuters]

The defeat of the right-wing National Rally is a surprising outcome, considering their impressive performance in the European Parliament elections, a majority of domestic opinion polls, and a comfortable lead following the first round of elections the previous week.

Voter turnout was notably high, reflecting the public’s concerns. The real prospect of the right-wing taking legislative power in the French parliament likely generated widespread fear, motivating many to vote.

Many political leaders and prominent figures pushed for resistance against the far right, utilizing social media to stoke fears about what a far-right victory could mean for citizens. Some politicians even stepped down from certain seats, and last-minute alliances among left-wing parties in Parliament led to the formation of the New Popular Front coalition, which ultimately finished first.

Realizing the far right’s growing influence, many politicians and parties took swift measures to curb their victory. 

As a result of the election, Macron’s domestic influence is weakened, with his centrist party unable to maintain a majority. He has indicated that he will remain in office for the remainder of his presidential term, showing reluctant signs of outright teaming up with the far Left.

Despite their significant gains in recent years by capturing dissent over the cost of living crisis, degradation of public services, and inadequate immigration policies, the National Rally still lacks sufficient trust and a large enough popular base.

The future of the Fifth Republic will be interesting to observe as it affects their support leading into the 2027 presidential elections. While Le Pen will be the candidate for the Right, she might still be too radical and disliked for enough voters to rally behind. However, with years of political turmoil, confusion, and domestic inefficiency on the horizon, it will be intriguing to see if further disillusionment with the establishment sparks a resurgent right-wing outcry in the next election.

The National Rally’s gains this year are undeniable, and the continued rise of Le Pen’s protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, could alter the ticket come 2027. A young, well-spoken, and charismatic figure, Bardella’s appeal could be more scalable for the National Rally. 

Although this scenario remains unlikely for now, if Bardella, who will be 31 by then, continues to garner support for the RN party over the next few years and domestic political issues worsen, we could very well see a shift in party dynamics and presidential hopefuls at France’s next political crossroad.

– K.M./P.T.