07/07 – International News Story and Update

Following their runoff presidential election on July 5, Iranian voters elected Masoud Pezeshkian as the Islamic Republic’s new president. 

A relative moderate and former heart surgeon, Pezeshkian came out victorious in the runoff election with 16.4 million votes, beating out conservative hardliner Saeed Jahlili, who was only able to amount 13.5 million votes. [Politico]

This election was called due to the unexpected death of Iran’s previous president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash back in May. [AP News] 

This result comes after the initial round of the presidential election on June 28 saw Iran’s lowest voter turnout in history. [Politico] 

Pezeshkian was able to defeat hardline opponents who look to enforce conservative Islamic codes throughout society and usually enjoy the backing of theocratic Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

Mr. Pezeshkian, on the other hand, managed to capture the popular outcry of recent years by advocating for women’s rights and a possible new nuclear deal with the U.S.

The reformist claims he will work towards a reformed relationship with the West in order to reduce sanctions and improve Iran’s global isolation and recent economic turmoil as their currency value dwindles. [The Economist]

Opinion:

This can certainly be seen as a signal of hope for Iran. 

Amidst heightened regional tensions with the Islamic government’s proxy militias engaging in violence throughout the Middle East, and an economy unlikely to improve without easing sanctions, Iranians are calling for change. This is evident through recent waves of protests and popular demonstrations against authoritarian brutality, particularly targeting the regime’s morality police. [BBC] 

Many of the recent protests aim to reform the republic’s repressive dress codes and the overall oppressive treatment of women. Pezeshkian channeled this anger throughout his campaign, expressing opposition to the restrictive hijab dress code for women and dismay for the unlawful killing of 22 year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police for not wearing a hijab in 2022. [Amnesty International]

It is quite a statement from the public to choose Pezeshkian and his relatively progressive politics over the other hardliners on the ballot.

What might be even more surprising is that the theocratic Supreme Leader Khamenei did not interfere with his appointment. Iran’s powerful clergy has previously erased the presence and prospects of independent and reformist candidates, either turning them into puppets or eliminating them outright. [The Economist]

The fact that a political figure openly opposed to the hardline conservative candidates pushing for increased Islamization will assume the presidency could indicate that Iran’s supreme council has received the message from their people. The Supreme Leader might be allowing Pezeshkian’s presidency to maintain the political legitimacy of his theocratic regime. However, the reality of Iran’s unique political system and distribution of power means that Pezeshkian will face a very difficult and restrained presidency.

To ease sanctions, he would need to improve relations with the United States, which would almost certainly require increased restraint on their militant proxies invoking conflict in places like Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and more. This is central to Iran’s foreign policy and likely beyond his control unless the Supreme Council decides to pursue a doctrine of de-escalation. [Deccan Herald]

Additionally, control and administrative authority over these transnational Islamist militias lie with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the government that will likely remain immune to Pezeshkian’s desired reforms if the regime wishes to maintain its current anti-Western, anti-Zionist grand strategies.

The hard truth is that although this is a positive sign for the possible future of Iran and reflects the popular desire for modernizing change, the role of president is supervised and heavily influenced by the Supreme Leader and his council. If warming relations and expanding diplomatic ties with the U.S. and its allies are not part of the regime’s agenda, it will be virtually impossible for Pezeshkian to implement any significant changes. Despite the moderation and positive reforms he may champion, it remains unlikely that the Islamic Republic will stray far from its anti-Western theocratic principles.