IRinFive

Tag: israel

  • Arab Leaders Gather Following Israeli Strikes in Qatar

    9/17 – Geopolitical News & Diplomacy Analysis

    Leaders from across the Arab and Islamic world gathered in Qatar’s capital on September 15 for an emergency summit, convened in response to a highly controversial Israeli airstrike that targeted Hamas officials in central Doha. The attack, which killed five Hamas members and a Qatari security officer, has sparked outrage throughout the region and elicited sharp rebukes even from close allies of both nations, including the United States.

    Though the summit was intended as a unified condemnation of Israel’s actions and a show of solidarity with Qatar, it also exposed the political limits of Arab and Muslim cooperation. While participants were unanimous in denouncing the Israeli strike as a violation of sovereignty and international law, the question of how to respond remains deeply contentious and unresolved.

    Strikes in Doha Sparks Diplomatic Shockwaves

    The Israeli strike on September 9 marked yet another unprecedented escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict, as it was carried out not on the battlefield in Gaza, but in the heart of an allied Gulf capital. Israel defended the operation, claiming the Hamas figures were obstructing ceasefire negotiations. Hamas instead described the action as an assassination attempt on its negotiating team. Although several key figures survived, the strike claimed the lives of high-level operatives, including the son of the group’s top negotiator. 

    Qatar, which has hosted Hamas’s political bureau since 2012 and has served as a mediator in indirect peace talks between Israel and Hamas, was left furious. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani condemned the attack as a breach of international law and an assault on his country’s neutrality. At a pre-summit briefing, he demanded that the global community end its “double standards” and hold Israel accountable for what he described as acts of ethnic cleansing and starvation in Gaza.

    Regional Anger 

    The summit in Doha attracted heads of state and senior officials from across the Islamic world. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were among the attendees. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas also arrived in Doha ahead of the meeting. However, key figures like Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were absent, reflecting the cautious diplomacy many Gulf nations continue to practice despite mounting regional pressure.

    Participants in the summit drafted a resolution condemning Israel’s “hostile acts,” which they claimed threatened any prospects for peace or coexistence. The document referred to Israeli policies as genocidal and called for collective action. Still, the resolution lacked concrete enforcement mechanisms and stopped short of suggesting military retaliation or sweeping diplomatic measures. 

    Iran proposed the formation of an “Islamic NATO” to deter future aggression, but this suggestion was quickly seen as politically unviable, given the longstanding distrust between Iran and many Arab governments.

    Qatar, while angered, lacks the capacity or political incentive to escalate militarily. It has no diplomatic or economic ties with Israel to sever and is instead focusing on legal and diplomatic recourse. It has already secured a unanimous condemnation from the UN Security Council, which emphasized de-escalation and expressed support for Qatar’s sovereignty. 

    U.S. in the Crosshairs

    The Israeli strike has also exposed growing frustration with Washington’s perceived inconsistency. Although President Donald Trump expressed displeasure with the strike, calling for caution, his administration ultimately signaled support for Israel by dispatching Secretary of State Marco Rubio just a couple days later to Jerusalem for high-level talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following their meeting, Rubio reiterated that Hamas must be dismantled as an armed entity. 

    This stance left many Arab leaders deeply unsettled. For decades, the Gulf states have relied on American security guarantees in exchange for stable energy markets and strategic cooperation. That understanding has begun to fracture over the past few years, and now, with a U.S. ally striking another ally on sovereign soil, confidence in American commitments is eroding further.

    Diplomats across the Gulf have quietly begun re-evaluating their strategic assumptions. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are among the top global buyers of U.S. arms. While the idea of cutting these purchases remains politically and logistically complicated, conversations have intensified about diversifying military suppliers and investing in domestic defense production.

    Despite the anger voiced at the Doha summit, concrete action was elusive. Gulf states have few tools to pressure Israel directly. Qatar has lobbied the United Arab Emirates to downgrade its ties with Israel. So far, Abu Dhabi has taken minor steps, such as summoning Israel’s deputy ambassador and disinviting Israeli firms from upcoming trade events. However, the broader normalization of relations, part of the Abraham Accords, remains largely intact.

    Some Arab states floated the idea of banning Israeli aircraft from their airspace, but the proposal did not make it into the final communique. The lack of consensus has led some analysts to dismiss the summit as symbolic. However, regional diplomats insist that the strike represented a serious breach that cannot be ignored.

    “This was a wake-up call,” said one Gulf official, noting that Israel had attacked a state considered critical to regional mediation and stability. While Gulf governments are limited in their responses, they hope to channel their frustration into increased pressure on Washington.

    Analysis:

    The Doha summit exposed the growing strain between America’s long-standing Gulf allies and its unshakeable commitment to Israel. Gulf leaders are increasingly uneasy with what they see as Washington’s unwillingness to constrain Israeli military behavior, even when it endangers friendly regimes or even their own best interests.

    For some Western-aligned Arab states, the dilemma is clear. They want the benefits of the U.S. security umbrella and close access to American capital and technology. But they are no longer willing to tolerate a perceived carte blanche for Israeli aggression, especially when it undermines regional stability and threatens the legitimacy of their own governments.

    For President Trump, the choice is becoming more difficult to defer. He must navigate a shifting regional dynamic in which traditional U.S. partners are looking for firmer assurances and a recalibration of what the alliance means. As the war in Gaza drags on, and as regional tempers flare, the United States is being asked to prove that its partnerships are not one-sided and solely accommodating exclusively to Israel. 

    From Doha to Riyadh, leaders are signaling that the days of quiet compliance are over. If Washington cannot demonstrate that it is willing to hold Israel accountable when its actions jeopardize broader strategic interests, and other neutral regional allies, it may soon find itself with even fewer friends in a region already in deep turmoil. 

  • Britain & France Threaten to Recognize Palestinian Statehood as Israel Starves Out Gaza

    7/30 – International News & Geopolitical Analysis

    International diplomatic pressure continues to mount on Israel as Britain has joined France in pledging to recognize a Palestinian state by September unless Israel moves swiftly to halt its military campaign in Gaza, end the humanitarian catastrophe by allowing more aid in, and commit to a long-term peace process. This coordinated Western shift marks a significant climax thus far in the nearly two-year-long war between Israel and Hamas, which has resulted in the deaths of over 60,000 Palestinians and a widespread humanitarian crisis that seems to be entering its darkest phase yet.

    Humanitarian Catastrophe and Famine

    The Gaza conflict, ignited in October 2023 by a Hamas attack on southern Israel that left 1,200 Israelis dead and 251 taken hostage, has since spiraled into a grinding and devastating war. Israel’s military response has razed much of the densely populated Gaza Strip and displaced more than two million people. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), Gaza has now crossed famine thresholds, with mounting hunger-related deaths and widespread malnutrition. At least 147 people—88 of them children—have died from starvation, with the toll rising daily. Gaza’s health authorities and global humanitarian agencies are sounding alarms that the situation is at risk of spiraling into a full-blown famine.

    Images of starving children have shocked the global community. The United Nations World Food Programme has reported significant difficulties in delivering aid, citing restricted access and lack of coordination from Israeli authorities. Despite Israel claiming that 5,000 aid trucks have entered Gaza in the past two months, major relief organizations argue that food and medical supplies remain severely insufficient and purposefully locked out of the enclave. Meanwhile, Israel maintains that it is not pursuing a policy of starvation, accusing Hamas of stealing aid—a claim the UN has not substantiated and is yet to be proven as fact.

    Britain and France Shift Policy Response

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that Britain would formally recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September unless Israel implements several key measures: an immediate ceasefire, an end to plans for annexation of the West Bank, and a credible commitment to a two-state solution. France issued a similar pledge last week, prompting sharp rebukes from Israeli officials.

    Israel’s government reacted with outrage. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the British proposal as a reward for terrorism, asserting that recognizing Palestinian statehood at this stage would only embolden Hamas. Trump, despite claiming neutrality during recent talks with Starmer, later told reporters that he did not believe Hamas should be rewarded with statehood recognition.

    Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas welcomed Starmer’s announcement as a bold and principled move, while UN officials noted that recognition alone would not alleviate the immediate suffering in Gaza nor produce any tangible progress toward peace at this stage.

    Stalled Ceasefire Talks and Mounting Civilian Deaths

    Despite intermittent talks led by Egyptian, Qatari, and U.S. mediators, efforts to broker a ceasefire have repeatedly broken down. The latest breakdown occurred after both Israel and the United States withdrew from negotiations, accusing Hamas of lacking coordination and refusing to compromise. Hamas demanded guarantees for a permanent ceasefire, Israeli military withdrawal, and an influx of humanitarian aid.

    Meanwhile, deadly airstrikes and ground assaults continue. Overnight Israeli attacks on the Nuseirat refugee camp killed at least 30 people, including women and children, while others were gunned down along the Salahudeen Road as they waited for humanitarian aid. Gaza’s death toll has now surpassed 60,000, making this the deadliest conflict involving Israel since the country’s founding in 1948.

    Observers argue that Netanyahu has little interest in ending the war or pursuing a two-state solution. His administration has increasingly moved toward permanent occupation of Palestinian territories, advancing controversial plans such as relocating Gaza’s population into a “humanitarian city” in Rafah, a move many critics label as forced displacement or ethnic cleansing.

    Defense Minister Israel Katz has spearheaded policies aimed at resettling Palestinians outside Gaza and intensifying military operations in the West Bank, under the justification of preempting future threats. Domestically, Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party has doubled down on its rejection of Palestinian sovereignty. The Knesset— Israel’s parliament— recently passed laws opposing the creation of a Palestinian state and supporting the annexation of the West Bank. Netanyahu himself boasts of having spent decades blocking Palestinian statehood and has consistently framed such recognition as an existential threat to Israel.

    U.S. Caught Between Allies and Interests

    While European nations begin to pivot toward recognizing Palestinian statehood, the United States—Israel’s closest and seemingly unwavering ally—remains reluctant to follow suit. President Trump, though having occasionally clashed with Netanyahu on broader Middle East strategy, has mostly remained aligned and compliant with Israeli policy throughout the war.

    Since the start of the conflict, the U.S. has provided Israel with at least $22.7 billion in military and humanitarian aid, vastly exceeding the $3.8 billion annual cap set under the existing U.S.–Israel memorandum of understanding. Additionally, Washington has invested substantial diplomatic capital in shielding Israel from sanctions and stalling international recognition of Palestinian statehood.

    But this strategy is becoming increasingly untenable. Arab states, which were once open to normalizing relations with Israel, are now demanding Israel commit to recognizing Palestinian sovereignty before proceeding. Trump’s broader ambitions of brokering a regional peace agreement, including normalization with Saudi Arabia, will permanently hang in the balance the longer his administration allows Israel a free pass to do whatever they want in Gaza.

    Analysis:

    The convergence of mass civilian suffering in Gaza, mounting evidence of famine, and Israel’s hardline stance has created a geopolitical crisis that is forcing Western governments to reassess their Middle East policies. For the United States, continued unconditional support for Israel risks isolating Washington from its Arab partners and European allies alike. It also threatens to undermine Trump’s larger strategic efforts to reposition U.S. military engagement in the region.

    Trump’s previous willingness to engage diplomatically with actors like the Houthis in Yemen and Syria’s new leadership suggests he is capable of shifting away from traditional alliances. If he hopes to achieve a lasting regional peace and rehabilitate America’s role as a mediator, he will need to leverage his popularity in Israel to pressure Netanyahu into concessions that include winding down his ethnic cleansing and leveling of the Gaza Strip and eventual recognition of a sovereign Palestinian state.

    Netanyahu’s political future and ideological commitments are deeply tied to rejecting Palestinian statehood however, and he is unlikely to change course without substantial external pressure from only the United States, as they are the only guarantor of Israel’s actions that have enough sway to make him act. But if the U.S. fails to influence Israel decisively, the risk is not just the continued suffering of Palestinians but the long-term erosion of America’s credibility and influence in the region, as well as a worldwide questioning of the hegemon’s longtime commitment to humanitarian values.

    The growing international pressure for humanitarian intervention and a halt to Israel’s actions in Gaza, symbolized by threatened statehood recognition from Britain and France, signals a tectonic shift in the global consensus. While symbolic in nature, these actions reflect a broader abhorration with Israeli leadership current military doctrine and a desire to re-center the peace process on humanitarian foundations.

    Whether this results in meaningful change will depend largely on the United States. For now, the war rages on, the humanitarian crisis deepens, and the vision of a two-state solution remains distant as most of the territory that would make up this so-called Palestinian state lies in rubble.