11/11 – International News & Geopolitical Analysis

Germany’s migration debate has taken a sharp turn. A decade after hundreds of thousands of Syrians found refuge in Germany during the worst years of the Syrian civil war, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced a new drive to encourage and in some cases enforce returns. The chancellor says the fighting that drove the original exodus has ended and that Germany should now work with Syria’s transitional authorities to facilitate reconstruction and repatriation. He has invited Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to Berlin to discuss practical steps, including the deportation of Syrians convicted of crimes.

This policy shift is the product of converging political forces and changing geopolitics. It follows a dramatic reversal of fortunes in Syria, where the Al-Asad regime that dominated for years has been replaced by a transitional government headed by al-Sharaa and where international actors are reengaging with Damascus. It also reflects domestic pressure from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, which has made mass returns and strict migration control its signature issue as it gains ground in polls and regional contests. Chancellor Merz frames his new stance as a correction of past open-door policies and as a response to voter concerns about migration and public safety.

From 2011 to 2015, the Syrian conflict drove a sustained outflow of people. Germany became a major destination after the 2015 refugee wave, when Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government admitted large waves of asylum seekers. Over the following years Syrian nationals grew to become one of the largest foreign groups in Germany. Integration efforts and naturalisations proceeded unevenly but steadily.

In 2024 and 2025, the military and political picture in Syria changed. Opposition forces and new transitional authorities overthrew the previous regime, and a transitional president was installed in early 2025. That new leadership immediately began courting foreign investment, aid and diplomatic recognition as it sought to rebuild. Western capitals started to reopen channels of engagement, and the White House planned meetings with Syria’s transitional president in November 2025. Those shifts opened the door in Berlin to new discussions about returns and reconstruction.

Just recently Chancellor Merz made his most explicit public move by saying the civil war is over and that the grounds for asylum have therefore changed. He invited President al-Sharaa to Berlin to negotiate cooperation on repatriations and signalled that Germany will prioritize the deportation of Syrians with criminal convictions while pushing for broader voluntary return programs. Merz’s announcement followed visits by German officials to Syria and came as the migration issue climbed the domestic political agenda ahead of critical state elections.

How realistic are mass returns?

Germany hosts close to a million people of Syrian nationality and more than a million people of Syrian origin when second generation and naturalized citizens are counted. Hundreds of thousands arrived in 2015 and the subsequent years under Merkel’s asylum policy. Many have since entered the German labour market, taken up skilled and system-relevant jobs and in recent years large numbers have become naturalised citizens following changes to the nationality law. Official labor market data show several hundred thousand Syrians in employment and a rising employment rate among Syrians as integration progresses. In 2024 more than 80,000 Syrians were naturalized, and employment figures for Syrians approached three hundred thousand in official counts.

Those figures explain why large scale forced returns would be difficult to carry out. A substantial share of Syrians in Germany are employed, pay into the social system and some are fully naturalized citizens. Many have built lives in German cities. With this in mind, legal barriers, human rights obligations, and logistical hurdles combine to limit how far Berlin can push blanket repatriation. In the short term the government appears to be focused on deporting people with criminal convictions and on creating incentives for voluntary return rather than immediate mass expulsions. Official returns so far remain a tiny fraction of the Syrian population in Germany.

Berlin’s tougher posture clashes with repeated assessments about the conditions Syrians would face on return. German foreign ministry officials who visited devastated areas of Syria described widespread destruction and stressed that many parts of the country are not yet able to host returnees with dignity and security. The UN and humanitarian organizations caution that large parts of Syria remain aid dependent and unstable, and they warn against repatriation policies that do not meet international protection standards. Those assessments create both legal and moral constraints on any rapid program to repatriate refugees.

Domestic political fissures. The Merz initiative has exposed divisions inside the government and within his own conservative ranks. Some ministers and lawmakers flagged the practical impossibility for many refugees to return quickly because of broken infrastructure and ongoing insecurity. Others argue that integration has limits and that Germany must rebalance its migration and citizenship policies after a decade of large inflows. Coalition politics also complicate matters. The chancellor governs in alliance with the center-left Social Democratic Party, which has urged caution and emphasized humanitarian obligations and integration gains.

Electoral dynamics and the AfD effect

Political incentives are central to understanding the current push for repatriation. The AfD’s surge in several state polls and its consistent focus on migration have put migration at the center of national debate. Merz’s shift is intended in part to reclaim votes on the right by adopting a tougher tone and concrete measures while avoiding the AfD’s most extreme rhetoric. The AfD, however, is demanding faster and more sweeping action and is prepared to promise forced mass deportations, a stance that continues to push the entire debate rightward. Analysts note that even a hardening of policy by the chancellor may not be sufficient to blunt the AfD’s momentum.

The German government is emphasizing programs to encourage voluntary returns by linking reconstruction assistance to return, offering financial help and creating administrative pathways for people who choose to go home. That carrot approach mirrors earlier European experiences with returns, though the scale and political context make this episode unique.

The government is also pursuing bilateral agreements to accept returns of people convicted of crimes. The invitation to President al-Sharaa is designed to secure practical cooperation from Syrian authorities for those targeted deportations. Human rights groups warn that such bilateral arrangements must ensure returnees will not face persecution, punishment or summary reprisals. Lessons from previous European repatriation initiatives show that returns without robust safeguards can have serious humanitarian and legal consequences.

Analysis:

For Syrian individuals and families the policy shift injects fresh uncertainty. Many have already integrated into the workforce, some have become citizens, and younger people born or raised in Germany have growing ties to German society. Efforts to encourage returns hit against those lived realities and risk social dislocation if not managed carefully. For Germany the debate poses a policy trade off between electoral politics and long term labour market and demographic needs. Syrians occupy roles in health care, transport and other sectors where labour shortages are acute. Large scale departures could exacerbate workforce gaps. At the same time, migration is now a core electoral issue and political leaders are using policy to signal responsiveness to voters.

For now it seems Merz’s announcement is less a technical plan for immediate mass repatriations than a political gambit. It seeks to reframe conservative politics in Germany and to respond to a powerful challenger on the right. The chancellor is trying to walk a narrow line. He must appear decisive on migration to hold off the AfD while avoiding measures that would unravel coalition unity or contravene legal protections and humanitarian obligations.

Three risks stand out. First, the humanitarian risk. A return program that is premature or poorly supervised risks sending people into shattered towns and insecure regions. That would produce human suffering and potential breaches of Germany’s international commitments. Second, the social risk. Pushing out people who are integrated into the economy and who have acquired rights through naturalization or long residence could damage local labour markets and public services that already rely on migrant labour. Third, the political risk. The policy could intensify polarization and give the AfD further leverage if voters see the measures as either too lax or too harsh.

There are also pragmatic options the government has yet to exhaust. Investing in post-conflict reconstruction programs tied to voluntary return is a sensible long term strategy. Targeted cooperation with Syrian authorities on returns of convicted criminals is legally more defensible than mass expulsions. Strengthening integration programs at home and communicating realistic timelines for any repatriation program would reduce panic and should be part of the official narrative.

Ultimately this episode reveals how migration policy is being reshaped by international events and domestic politics. The fall of the old Syrian regime and the emergence of a transitional authority changed the geopolitical calculus. At the same time the AfD’s electoral appeal is forcing mainstream parties to compete and finally speak up on migration. Germany now faces a test of governance to manage a politically fraught issue without abandoning international law, humanitarian standards and the social gains of integration.