07/12 – International News Updates

Here are IRinFive’s main updates and takeaways following this week’s historic 75th anniversary NATO Summit that took place in Washington DC. 

New Military Aid Packages:

• U.S. will deploy long-range missiles to Germany in 2026

• NATO allies will send dozens of air defense systems to Ukraine, including four highly sought after American Patriot Systems 

• F-16 fighter jets will be deployed to Ukraine for first time and after over a year of pleads from Zelenskyy

• Jens Stoltenberg wraps up his ten-year term as Secretary General of NATO; receives Presidential Medal of Freedom from Joe Biden 

• Bloc support for Ukraine and a collective commitment to ensuring their path to alliance membership 

• Joint Communique outlining at least 40 billion euros in aid for Ukraine 

Leaders: 

• UK PM Keir Starmer dismisses doubts over Biden’s cognitive capabilities and their nascent relationship is characterized by friendly remarks.

• Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses Biden and the US of being complicit in Israeli war crimes in Gaza, questioning international law if a nation like the US does nothing about what he deems inexcusable in Palestine. 

• NATO member Turkey has denounced Israel’s assault on Gaza, halted trade with it, and voiced support for Hamas. Erdogan has repeatedly criticized Western countries for backing Israel and called for Israel to be punished by international courts. Last month, he expressed his nation’s solidarity with Lebanon amidst rising tensions and the potential for a wider regional war between Israel and Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah.

• “We are an unwavering NATO ally. However, we do not believe that this impedes our ability to establish positive relationships with nations such as China and Russia,” Erdogan told Newsweek. [Reuters]

• U.S. President Joe Biden gave a solo speech towards the end of the summit, where he cordially handed off the stage to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, mistakenly introducing him as “President Putin” before correcting himself. 

• European leaders defended him afterwards, with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both reiterating that slips of the tongue are normal and “happen to everyone.” Ah yes, that certainly seems to be the case with good ‘ol Joe.

• Following NATO’s announcement of a common stance supporting a path to Ukrainian accession, Slovakian PM Robert Fico publicly expressed his dismay over the decision. 

• Fico emphasized his concerns by stating, “I understand Ukraine’s wishes, it is a sovereign country, but Ukraine’s membership in NATO is just a guarantee of World War III.” [Politico]

• Fico has remained one of Europe’s main leaders against providing military aid to Ukraine and has downplayed the severity of the conflict. 

• He also voiced support for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent attempts at acting as a rogue diplomatic peacemaker, stating that he “would have liked very much to have joined him” in his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. [Politico] 

• Orban’s sporadic visits to Ukraine, Russia, China, and now the United States for this week’s NATO summit have generated significant criticism from most EU leaders, many of whom claim that Orban does not diplomatically represent the bloc despite his current role as rotating President of the EU Council. In contrast, Slovakia’s leader Robert Fico is notable for his open praise of the Hungarian PM’s efforts. 

China: 

• A draft communique from the summit took notable shots at China, labeling the country as an enabler of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine due to their ongoing trade relations and third-party undermining of Western sanctions.

• The resolution called on China to cease all support for Russia’s war effort against Ukraine. The alliance’s draft communique further claims that Beijing continues to pose systemic challenges to European security. [Reuters] 

• China’s foreign ministry responded to these accusations as mere smears and lies, claiming that the resolution was “biased and “sowing discord”. [AP News]

• The PRC’s spokesperson, Lin Jin, stated that these claims are belligerent provocations and NATO’s way of shifting blame rather than taking concrete action to try and end the war in Ukraine. He asserted that “China’s core position on the Ukraine issue is to promote peace talks and a political settlement, which has been widely recognized and appreciated by the international community.” [Reuters]

• Hungary’s representatives also openly opposed these condemnations of China, with Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto emphasizing that Hungary does not want NATO to become an “anti-China bloc”. 

• He further highlighted that China is an important trade and investment partner for Hungary.

• This contrasts with many other European member states that are trying to divest and shift economic dependence away from China. Hungary’s government has also doubled down on their opposition to the bloc’s dedication to Ukrainian NATO membership. With fears of direct confrontation and escalation with Russia, Hungary has maintained this divergent position throughout the conflict. 

• “Ukraine’s admission wouldn’t strengthen but weaken the alliance’s unity, as there are completely different viewpoints on their membership,” Szijjarto said. [Reuters]

• NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg doubled down on his antagonization of China later in the summit when commenting on recent joint military exercises between China and Belarus.

• Stoltenberg expressed concerns over China’s increasing levels of cooperation with Russia and Belarus, claiming that the East Asian power is moving closer and closer to NATO on basically every continent.

• He even labeled the PRC as an authoritarian regime and openly criticized the nation’s treatment towards their neighbors and own population.

• “We are speaking about authoritarian regimes. China is oppressing its own people, cracking down on democratic voices … in Hong Kong, more assertive behavior in the South China Sea, threatening neighbors, threatening Taiwan”, stated Stoltenberg. [Politico]

– P.T.

07/11 – International Economy News Story

In the ongoing trade war between the West and China, a new battlefront has emerged over electric vehicles (EVs). 

In May, the United States imposed a 100% duty on Chinese EVs as part of broader measures against Chinese tech. On July 2, Canada launched a consultation on “unfair Chinese trade practices” in the EV industry. Two days later, the European Union enacted a provisional tariff of 37.6% on Chinese EVs. On July 10, China’s Ministry of Commerce indicated it would investigate whether the EU’s tariffs create barriers to free trade, signaling its intention to retaliate. [The Economist]

Western car manufacturers with significant operations in China fear becoming collateral damage in this conflict. Chinese government agencies have already been directed to remove American-made software and hardware from firms like IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle, citing national security concerns. [The Economist]

Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU’s top trade official, dismissed concerns of retaliation from Beijing after the European Commission imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs ranging from 17.4% to 37.6%. These tariffs, lower than the US’s 100% duty, supplement the existing 10% duty on Chinese EV imports. [The Guardian]

After an eight-month investigation, the European Commission found that companies making electric cars in China benefit from substantial government support, allowing them to undercut EU rivals on price, gain significant market share, and threaten European jobs. [AP News]

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed concerns about job losses due to these imbalances during her meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has signaled potential tit-for-tat measures, investigating French cognac and pork imports over subsidies. [The Guardian]

The Chinese commerce ministry accused the West of escalating trade frictions. 

The customs duties will be provisional, meaning they will be totaled up but won’t need to be paid until confirmed by a vote of EU governments before November 2. They were announced on June 12 and will go into effect this Friday. [AP News]

The EU will only collect the duties if it finds that the European auto industry would have suffered material harm without them. This timeline gives the EU and the Chinese government time to negotiate, with talks already held between Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU commissioner for the economy, and Chinese Trade Minister Wang Wentao.

China has rapidly gained a 25% share of the EU market for electric battery-powered cars, up from 3% in 2020. EU officials fear without action, Europe’s EV industry, which employs millions, could be severely harmed. 

Importers of Chinese vehicles will now provide bank guarantees to cover the new duties, pending a final decision on permanent tariffs in the autumn. Provisional tariffs for BYD are set at 17.4%, Geely at 19.9%, and SAIC at 37.6%. Despite opposition from Germany, the tariffs will likely remain, requiring a weighted majority of 15 EU member states to overturn. [The Guardian]

The Biden administration is raising tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% from the current 25%, effectively blocking nearly all Chinese EV imports. In contrast, Europe’s planned tariffs are aimed at leveling the playing field by approximating the size of the subsidies available to Chinese carmakers, rather than blocking imports entirely. [AP News] 

EU officials argue that while affordable electric cars from abroad are necessary to achieve greenhouse gas reduction goals, they should not come at the cost of fair competition.

The trade war over EVs between the West and China continues to escalate, with significant implications for global trade and the automotive industry. As both sides maneuver for advantage, the impacts on international markets and geopolitical relations remain uncertain. 

Opinion: 

China is now in a peculiar position. On one hand, China must appear firm against accusations of flooding markets with subsidized products. On the other hand, with a slowing economy, China wants to signal openness to foreign investment. China might opt for a measured response, possibly imposing export restrictions on crucial minerals like gallium and germanium, essential for electronics in EVs.

The rapid growth of Chinese EV manufacturers has sparked fears that these Chinese cars will threaten the EU’s ability to produce its own green technology and jeopardize the jobs of 2.5 million workers in the auto industry and 10.3 million more people indirectly dependent on EV production. Flashbacks to the EU’s experience with subsidized Chinese solar panels wiping out European producers has heightened these concerns.

The impact of these duties on car prices remains uncertain. Chinese carmakers might absorb the duties through lower profits instead of raising prices. While consumers might benefit from cheaper Chinese cars in the short term, allowing unfair practices could eventually reduce competition and increase prices. 

Currently, Chinese carmakers often sell their vehicles in Europe at higher prices than in China, focusing on profits over market share. However, there is a fear that Chinese competitors might lower their prices to increase their market share in Europe.

Beijing has sharply criticized the higher duties, calling them “a naked act of protectionism.” [AP News] 

The Chinese Commerce Ministry has noted that several rounds of technical consultations have been held and hopes for a mutually acceptable solution. China could retaliate against European products and luxury imports. 

Over the longer term, Chinese carmakers might try and avoid tariffs by manufacturing cars in Europe, with BYD building a plant in Hungary and Chery planning a joint venture to build cars in Spain’s Catalonia region. [AP News] 

These developments could be intriguing as the commercial tit-for-tat will heavily depend on the outward stances of EU member states towards the PRC and the perceived instability it could cause. 

Currently, it is evident that the bloc is not entirely unified in its suspicions and diplomatic relationship with China. The progression and diversity of opinions on the national and economic security threat posed by China will shape the potential future escalation of the developing trade war between the East Asian power and the broader Western world.

– P.T.

07/10 – International News Update

Washington, DC – At the NATO Summit celebrating the alliance’s 75th anniversary, President Joe Biden delivered a speech confidently declaring positive assertions for Ukraine’s victory in the ongoing war and the determination to halt Putin’s advances.

“Today NATO is stronger than it’s ever been in its history,” Biden asserted. [Reuters] 

Ukraine aims to increase pressure on the Biden administration during this week’s summit, pushing for the removal of restrictions on using American-supplied weapons in Russian territory. 

Andriy Yermak, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, revealed in an interview with POLITICO that Ukraine seeks permission to deploy longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems for strikes inside Russia. [Politico] 

Currently, Ukraine uses these weapons in Crimea but wants U.S. approval to launch them from other areas.While the U.S. granted limited permission in May for strikes near Kharkiv, the White House has prohibited using long-range missiles against targets deep within Russia. 

The U.S. remains cautious, fearing such strikes could provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict. However, Yermak argues that these concerns should not overshadow Ukraine’s need to retaliate effectively against Russian aggression.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that he expects NATO leaders to agree on a substantial new aid package for Ukraine. Results from the summit are likely to include advanced air-defense equipment, new military training centers, and more than sixty F-16 fighter jets. [The Economist] 

A primary goal of the summit is to ensure Ukraine remains on an expected and “irreversible” path to NATO membership. Additionally, the U.S. decided to deploy long-range missiles to Germany by 2026, marking the first stationing of such weapons since the Cold War, sending a clear message to Putin.

This is also an open and confirmatory violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by the U.S. and Soviet Union in the late 80s, a mutual agreement to minimize and deplete their arsenals of intermediate and short range land missiles. 

The treaty collapsed in 2019 due to U.S. claims of continued Russian violations. 

The stationing of long range ICBMs in Germany displays a clear message to Putin, as this caliber of American weapons being stationed on the continent has not occurred since the Cold War [Reuters]

Opinion: 

President Joe Biden appears to be focusing on foreign policy as his presidency progresses. He is likely to continue emphasizing his robust military support and funding for Ukraine, especially following his poor performance in a recent debate against presidential election opponent, Donald Trump. 

Biden’s approval ratings have dropped, and concerns about his cognitive ability to serve another term are at an all-time high, with several Democratic members of Congress calling for him to step down from the nomination.

With the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, NATO’s role is under intense scrutiny, particularly given Donald Trump’s critiques and his questionable commitment to NATO. These concerns have already shaken alliance members, leading to an 18% increase in defense spending among allies this year.  [Politico] 

Part of this increase might be an effort to “Trump-proof” the alliance, though political and geographic factors also play a significant role in spending habits.

For countries bordering Russia, such as the Baltic states and Poland, fortifying defense systems and maintaining a strong commitment to NATO is crucial. Poland, for example, has allocated 4% of its annual GDP to defense spending, with President Andrzej Duda calling for allies to raise the target spending percentage to 3% of annual GDP. [Politico] 

In contrast, smaller nations farther from Russia have less justification and incentive to meet the annual GDP percent requirement on defense.

Europe’s security is fragile, and the threat posed by Russian aggression will likely lead to increased focus and spending on national security and defense. The potential for a second Trump term adds to the unpredictability, prompting European NATO leaders to strive for unity and heightened attention on stopping Russia and defending Ukraine as the war escalates.

To promote stability and counter the unpredictability of a potential NATO future under Trump, Biden will likely assert that the United States will remain a leading protector of the alliance. He will contrast this with the image of Trump as an unpredictable wildcard who could destabilize Europe and appease Putin. 

The Biden administration has repeatedly surpassed previous limits on military support for Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelensky urging the U.S. to allow deeper strikes into Russian territory. 

They remain hesitant on this move as it will almost certainly provoke a sharp response and further escalation from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many leaders even fear an expansion of the war that leads to direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. 

Biden’s steadfast support for Ukraine and its resilience against Russian aggression remains one of his few avenues for garnering additional campaign support, as he continues to face calls for his resignation ahead of the upcoming November election.

– P.T.

07/09 – International News Story and Update

Last week, on July 4, Britain’s voters ousted the Conservative party out of power in an unprecedented defeat. 

The U.K. Labour party won a decisive majority in the House of Commons with 411 seats out of the total 650 parliamentary member seats. [Politico]

The Conservative party which has maintained a tumultuous 14-year run in power, lost an astounding 250 seats, now holding only 121 seats following electoral results. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who held the post since 2022, handed in his resignation 

This was notably Britain’s second-lowest voting turnout in the last 100 years. Many British voters turned away from the two major parties that have dominated UK politics for the last century, with the centrist Liberal Democrats and far-right Reform UK party recording notable electoral gains. [Vox] 

Labour won a decisive victory in parliamentary seats, but the national popular vote paints a distinctly nuanced image of what actual support looks like for each party. 

Labour came out on top, but with only about 34% of the popular vote. The Conservatives came in second with 23.6% of the popular vote, their lowest in decades and a 20-point drop from the previous election in 2019. And the far-right Reform UK party accumulated a striking 14.3% of the popular vote. [Sky News] 

Following the results of last Thursday’s election, Rishi Sunak handed in his apologetic resignation as Prime Minister on July 5. 

In his final address outside 10 Downing Street, Sunak addressed the British public: “I have heard your anger, your disappointment and I take responsibility for this loss.” [Reuters]

Sunak has also stepped down as leader of the Conservative party. 

The leader of the Labour party, Keir Starmer, has now been appointed Prime Minister and is currently forming his cabinet around him. 

Opinion: 

Britain’s voters are desperate for change. The Conservative “Tories” have held power in Parliament for nearly a decade and a half, with little to show for it in the public’s eyes. 

The UK has had enough and is ready to give Labour a shot at governing.

This significant triumph for the center-left UK Labour party is not so much a sign of large-scale support for their political agenda but more a frustrated reaction to long-term Conservative rule and popular disillusionment with their administrations’ incompetence. 

Voters have largely attributed rising insecurity, the cost of living, and economic stagnation since Brexit in 2016 to the Tories’ unfulfilled promises. This was compounded by botched responses to COVID and corruption scandals involving former PM Boris Johnson, followed by his incapable and unwilling successor, Liz Truss, who lasted less than 50 days as Prime Minister.

Sunak seemed out of touch and unable to connect with voters. He lacked any genuine popular base and was seen more as a technocrat simply ushered in to add to his prestigious resume. 

Sunak made the questionable decision to call for elections back in May, seeing as he had to do so before the end of the year. This early call surprised many, including his own party members, leaving the Conservatives scrambling for campaign momentum that they ultimately couldn’t muster. 

Rishi Sunak and his party were unprepared for this election, which he called prematurely, resulting in a crushing political defeat.

The final nail in the coffin of public appeal was Sunak’s lack of consideration and awareness, as he was caught leaving the 80th anniversary D-Day commemoration in Northern France on June 6.  [AP News]

Starmer is not necessarily the most appealing new leader, often labeled as ‘dull and boring,’ but voters were ready to give him a chance if it meant kicking the Tories out. Most voters likely did not like any of their choices, despite the landslide victory for Starmer and his Labour colleagues.

Overall, last week’s general elections demonstrated UK citizens’ overwhelming frustrations and lack of trust in the system, with a surge in anti-incumbency, muddled popular voting results, and a noticeably low turnout.

– P.T.

07/08 – International News Update

France’s second round of snap national elections concluded on July 7, resulting in a surprising outcome where the country’s leftist coalition secured the most parliamentary seats, contrary to earlier predictions of a rightwing victory.

Following losses by President Macron’s centrist Renaissance party in the June 9 European Parliament elections, Macron called for two rounds of snap legislative elections, scheduled for June 30 and July 7. 

These elections were originally planned for 2027, coinciding with the next presidential elections. The decision to hold early elections was influenced by calls from the National Rally’s leader, Jordan Bardella, and others for early parliamentary elections. In a televised address on June 9, Macron stated, “I have heard your message,” and added, “I am giving you the choice of your legislative future by voting.”

France’s right wing has gained popularity in recent years, with the far-right National Rally party, formerly led by Marine Le Pen, leading in opinion polls. The party has taken strong stances on immigration, with its new leader since 2022, Jordan Bardella, promising to cut taxes on fuel and electricity, tackle immigration, and address security issues. [NPR]

Leading up to the final round of elections, Macron’s centrist Renaissance party was polling in third place, behind the National Rally and the leftist coalition, the New Popular Front. The first round of elections on June 30 saw the National Rally party in the lead.

According to the latest report by Le Monde, the results of the July 7 vote left the New Popular Front with 182 seats, Macron’s centrist coalition Ensemble with 168 seats, and Le Pen’s National Rally in third place with 143 seats. [Le Monde]

No party was able to achieve the 289-seat majority needed to control the French National Assembly. [Politico]

The current Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, has announced that he will step down following the result. President Macron will now seek to appoint a new prime minister in parliament, a role that typically goes to a member of the party with the parliamentary majority. 

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, head of the far-left France Unbowed party, demanded that Macron choose a prime minister from the New Popular Front coalition, stating, “The president has the power and the duty to call the New Popular Front to govern. It is ready.” 

Meanwhile, Bardella criticized the “unnatural alliance” between Macron and the leftists, claiming it was an attempt to stop National Rally’s significant surge in popularity.

Opinion:

Voters have spoken and as no one party was able to secure a majority, France now has a hung and divided parliament. This will usher in a period of uncertainty and political gridlock throughout France. [Reuters]

The defeat of the right-wing National Rally is a surprising outcome, considering their impressive performance in the European Parliament elections, a majority of domestic opinion polls, and a comfortable lead following the first round of elections the previous week.

Voter turnout was notably high, reflecting the public’s concerns. The real prospect of the right-wing taking legislative power in the French parliament likely generated widespread fear, motivating many to vote.

Many political leaders and prominent figures pushed for resistance against the far right, utilizing social media to stoke fears about what a far-right victory could mean for citizens. Some politicians even stepped down from certain seats, and last-minute alliances among left-wing parties in Parliament led to the formation of the New Popular Front coalition, which ultimately finished first.

Realizing the far right’s growing influence, many politicians and parties took swift measures to curb their victory. 

As a result of the election, Macron’s domestic influence is weakened, with his centrist party unable to maintain a majority. He has indicated that he will remain in office for the remainder of his presidential term, showing reluctant signs of outright teaming up with the far Left.

Despite their significant gains in recent years by capturing dissent over the cost of living crisis, degradation of public services, and inadequate immigration policies, the National Rally still lacks sufficient trust and a large enough popular base.

The future of the Fifth Republic will be interesting to observe as it affects their support leading into the 2027 presidential elections. While Le Pen will be the candidate for the Right, she might still be too radical and disliked for enough voters to rally behind. However, with years of political turmoil, confusion, and domestic inefficiency on the horizon, it will be intriguing to see if further disillusionment with the establishment sparks a resurgent right-wing outcry in the next election.

The National Rally’s gains this year are undeniable, and the continued rise of Le Pen’s protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, could alter the ticket come 2027. A young, well-spoken, and charismatic figure, Bardella’s appeal could be more scalable for the National Rally. 

Although this scenario remains unlikely for now, if Bardella, who will be 31 by then, continues to garner support for the RN party over the next few years and domestic political issues worsen, we could very well see a shift in party dynamics and presidential hopefuls at France’s next political crossroad.

– K.M./P.T.

07/07 – International News Story and Update

Following their runoff presidential election on July 5, Iranian voters elected Masoud Pezeshkian as the Islamic Republic’s new president. 

A relative moderate and former heart surgeon, Pezeshkian came out victorious in the runoff election with 16.4 million votes, beating out conservative hardliner Saeed Jahlili, who was only able to amount 13.5 million votes. [Politico]

This election was called due to the unexpected death of Iran’s previous president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash back in May. [AP News] 

This result comes after the initial round of the presidential election on June 28 saw Iran’s lowest voter turnout in history. [Politico] 

Pezeshkian was able to defeat hardline opponents who look to enforce conservative Islamic codes throughout society and usually enjoy the backing of theocratic Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

Mr. Pezeshkian, on the other hand, managed to capture the popular outcry of recent years by advocating for women’s rights and a possible new nuclear deal with the U.S.

The reformist claims he will work towards a reformed relationship with the West in order to reduce sanctions and improve Iran’s global isolation and recent economic turmoil as their currency value dwindles. [The Economist]

Opinion:

This can certainly be seen as a signal of hope for Iran. 

Amidst heightened regional tensions with the Islamic government’s proxy militias engaging in violence throughout the Middle East, and an economy unlikely to improve without easing sanctions, Iranians are calling for change. This is evident through recent waves of protests and popular demonstrations against authoritarian brutality, particularly targeting the regime’s morality police. [BBC] 

Many of the recent protests aim to reform the republic’s repressive dress codes and the overall oppressive treatment of women. Pezeshkian channeled this anger throughout his campaign, expressing opposition to the restrictive hijab dress code for women and dismay for the unlawful killing of 22 year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police for not wearing a hijab in 2022. [Amnesty International]

It is quite a statement from the public to choose Pezeshkian and his relatively progressive politics over the other hardliners on the ballot.

What might be even more surprising is that the theocratic Supreme Leader Khamenei did not interfere with his appointment. Iran’s powerful clergy has previously erased the presence and prospects of independent and reformist candidates, either turning them into puppets or eliminating them outright. [The Economist]

The fact that a political figure openly opposed to the hardline conservative candidates pushing for increased Islamization will assume the presidency could indicate that Iran’s supreme council has received the message from their people. The Supreme Leader might be allowing Pezeshkian’s presidency to maintain the political legitimacy of his theocratic regime. However, the reality of Iran’s unique political system and distribution of power means that Pezeshkian will face a very difficult and restrained presidency.

To ease sanctions, he would need to improve relations with the United States, which would almost certainly require increased restraint on their militant proxies invoking conflict in places like Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and more. This is central to Iran’s foreign policy and likely beyond his control unless the Supreme Council decides to pursue a doctrine of de-escalation. [Deccan Herald]

Additionally, control and administrative authority over these transnational Islamist militias lie with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the government that will likely remain immune to Pezeshkian’s desired reforms if the regime wishes to maintain its current anti-Western, anti-Zionist grand strategies.

The hard truth is that although this is a positive sign for the possible future of Iran and reflects the popular desire for modernizing change, the role of president is supervised and heavily influenced by the Supreme Leader and his council. If warming relations and expanding diplomatic ties with the U.S. and its allies are not part of the regime’s agenda, it will be virtually impossible for Pezeshkian to implement any significant changes. Despite the moderation and positive reforms he may champion, it remains unlikely that the Islamic Republic will stray far from its anti-Western theocratic principles.

07/06 – International News Story & Updates

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to consider a ceasefire with Russia on July 2, making a trip to Moscow days later. 

Orbán’s proposal to Ukraine came shortly after Hungary a​​sumed the six-month rotating presidency of the European Council on July 1.

The surprise visit to Kyiv was the president’s first visit in over a decade. [BBC]

In the past, the Hungarian prime minister has criticized the decision to send Western military aid to Ukraine following Russia’s full scale invasion of the eastern European country in February 2022. 

Orbán’s relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin is also one of the warmest among EU leaders. 

Orbán’s push for a ceasefire comes ahead of a planned international summit in Kyiv later this year.

The Hungarian president said: “A ceasefire connected to a deadline would give a chance to speed up peace talks. I explored this possibility with the president and I am grateful for his honest answers and negotiation,”

Kyiv responded with its own plans for peace including the plan for an international summit that could invite a Russian representative to help facilitate peace talks. 

Ukrainian foreign policy adviser Ihor Zhovkva said: “We say that Ukraine really wants peace for itself, this is logical… For this, we have a tool – the peace summit,” [Reuters]

Tensions between Ukraine and Hungary have risen in recent years in the face of  Hungary’s continued peaceful relationship with Russia and opposition to many EU efforts to aid Kyiv.

Despite this, Ukraine has continued to seek Hungary’s support due to its reliance on EU financial and military backing amid its ongoing war with Russia. 

ORBÁN VISITS RUSSIA

Later the same week, on July 5, Orbán met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

During the trip, Putin insisted that Ukraine withdraw its troops from regions that Moscow has annexed.

Last month Putin made the same request, adding that Kyiv must agree to drop any plans of joining NATO.

Kyiv rejected these requests. [Reuters 2]

Putin also told Orbán of his expectations for Hungary to outline “the position of European partners” on Ukraine given its newly acquired leading position in the European Council.

Orbán responded by saying: “The number of steps needed to end the war and bring about peace is many,” [Le Monde]

The trip to Russia was heavily criticized by EU officials who said it threatened to undermine the EU’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. 

The EU has consistently positioned itself against any Russian offensive. 

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen wrote on X: “Appeasement will not stop Putin.” [X]

US press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre added that the visit to Russia “will not advance the cause of peace and is counterproductive to promoting Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence, 

The visit to Moscow was the first by a European leader since 2022. [Barron’s/AFP]

OPINION

It is likely that Orbán views Hungary’s current tenure as the rotating president of the European Union as a political opportunity. He appears to want to maximize his role as liaison and elevate his international status, as well as that of his relatively small nation, by brokering an end to this prominent war. Orbán has even labeled his government’s foreign policy strategy of playing both sides in this conflict as their own “peace mission”. [Reuters]

Orbán’s character and promoted alliances are noteworthy when considering his intentions and actions. He recently helped establish the new European Parliament right-wing alliance group “Patriots for Europe” alongside other right-wing party leaders throughout Europe. He has consistently maintained warm relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, notably throughout the war with Ukraine, and has been an outspoken supporter of former American President Donald Trump.

As far-right parties gain popularity and make electoral advances across Europe, and with the possibility of a resurgent Trump presidency, Orbán recognizes the timely opportunity to leverage Hungary’s current role and power within the EU. His calls for a ceasefire might be seen as appeasement towards Russia, but from his perspective, they could serve to diminish the influence of liberal Europe and promote his anti-Ukraine aid and anti-immigration policies.

Orbán consistently pushes for peace within his public rhetoric, and has maintained throughout the conflict that NATO’s weaponization and funding of Ukraine has only further exacerbated and extended the war and devastation. As one of the most vocal advocates against NATO expansion, Orbán has famously critiqued the alliance’s recent evolution as a promoter of military offense and pursuer of war, straying away from its founding principles of restraint, defense and peace. [Newsweek]

From a broader context, the disagreement and critical rhetoric amongst European leaders since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war has exemplified the clear lack of unity and disaccord regarding the functional role of NATO and its purpose for the political future of Europe at large. 

Orbán boasts of his government’s controversial political stance within Europe and likely sees this as the perfect political moment to position himself at the forefront of an emerging right-wing wave across the continent and beyond. Many EU leaders are aware of this, and skepticism regarding Orbán’s recent moves has been widespread. 

– K.M./P.T.

07/03 – International News Story

Ahead of France’s second round of planned snap national elections on July 7, the far-right National Rally party has taken the lead. [AP News]

Following losses by President Macron’s centrist Renaissance party in the June 9th European Parliament elections, Macron called for two rounds of snap legislative elections scheduled for June 30th and July 7th. 

The vote was originally scheduled for 2027 alongside the next presidential elections.

The decision came in response to calls by the National Rally’s leader Jordan Bardella and others for early parliamentary elections. Macron responded in a televised address to French voters on June 9: “I have heard your message,” adding, “I am giving you the choice of your legislative future by voting.”

France’s right wing has gained popularity in recent years with the far-right National Rally party formerly led by Marie Le Pen leading opinion polls. 

The party has taken strong stances on immigration with its new leader as of 2022, Jordan Bardella making promises to cut taxes on fuel and electricity and tackle immigration and security among other pledges. [NPR]

Macron’s centrist Renaissance party has taken third in polls behind National Rally and the leftist coalition the New Popular Front. 

Following the July 7 vote, Macron will seek to name a new prime minister to lead the majority in parliament. The National Rally has already designated Bardella as its choice for prime minister. 

If National Rally wins the next round of snap elections it will be the first time since World War II that a far-right party has taken national office, forming a cohabitation with president and prime minister from opposing parties. [Bloomberg]

Opinion:

The decision for Macron to call for early parliamentary elections comes as somewhat of a surprise, given that the elections were set for 2027, the same year as the next round of presidential elections. However, Macron’s approval ratings have fallen significantly in recent years to 28%.

Following Macron’s reelection for his second term in 2022, the French president lost his majority in parliament, leading to a perception of him as a tyrant with a bad reputation as he has consistently utilized presidential decrees to carry out desired laws. In a likely attempt to regain public favor, he has called for snap elections to demonstrate a responsiveness to voter opinion and display himself as a man of the people. 

Many consider it to be quite the gamble for Macron, as he aims to curb these far right gains upon these early showing and not leave their power to brew. Many believe that this could very well backfire as the right wing National Rally party dominates the polls and shoots for a parliamentary majority. 

If the National Rally wins, it would create a cohabitation government with Macron, which could lead to negative outcomes for the French people. They might then blame the new party, the National Rally, and potentially shift their support to left or centrist parties in the next elections.

Either way the decision to call snap elections plunges the political state of France and its voters into deeply uncertain times where no one can be certain on exactly what will follow. 

– P.T.

6/25 – International News Story

The U.S. military’s long-standing technological edge is under serious threat as China ramps up its defense spending. Over the last 25 years, China has heavily invested in its military, aiming for “complete national defense and military modernization by 2035” and transforming the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a “world-class military by mid-century.” This growing power poses a significant challenge to the U.S.-led international order and the security of its allies and partners.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to become a crucial factor in determining military dominance in the near future. AI technology offers advanced capabilities like sophisticated data analysis, better integration between sensors and shooters, and faster decision-making. The U.S. military must rapidly adopt AI to maintain its technological superiority, deter potential aggressors, and succeed in future conflicts.

The AI revolution in military technology is a key element in the broader U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry, with high stakes and unpredictable outcomes. The PLA’s increasing strength has led to more aggressive behavior, including over 180 documented instances of dangerous air intercepts against U.S. allies and contentious territorial claims in the South China Sea.

In response, the U.S. Department of Defense is prioritizing AI adoption, tapping into American private sector innovation to counter the PLA’s advancements. Successful AI development will revolutionize military systems and processes, boosting efficiency, situational awareness, operational precision, and decision-making speed.

As the military AI revolution unfolds, it’s crucial for personnel at all levels to prepare for the coming changes. Embracing new technologies and proactively adapting will be essential for the U.S. military to stay ahead in an increasingly competitive global arena.

Opinion: 

We could be on the brink of experiencing a new arms race, reminiscent of the 20th-century proliferation era. Just as nuclear proliferation was driven by the geopolitical necessity to maintain power and influence among great powers, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into the military might become the new catalyst for a similar competition, mirroring the Cold War dynamics.

The intense and threatening rivalry between the U.S. and the Soviet Union led both nations to amass large nuclear arsenals, significantly enhancing their military capabilities and showcasing their technological prowess through endeavors like the space race. Today, we stand on the edge of a new race for technological dominance in the uncharted frontier of AI.

China views the United States as a declining power and aims to claim the top spot through technological advancement rather than direct warfare. The U.S. government and military are likely aware of these ambitions and are already planning increased investments in military AI initiatives.

If the U.S. successfully integrates AI into its military, it could maintain its position as the world’s leading military power. This would involve widespread adoption of AI across all branches, resulting in significant improvements in operational efficiency, decision-making speed, and overall combat effectiveness.

However, the integration of AI into military forces could trigger a global arms race, with countries like Iran, Russia, India, and others rapidly developing their own AI military technologies. Similar to the “nuclear club” era, this competition could lead to the proliferation of advanced AI-driven weapons, increasing the risk of conflicts and making warfare more unpredictable and potentially devastating. The geopolitical landscape might become increasingly volatile as nations strive to outpace each other in military AI advancements.

This situation raises ethical concerns and highlights the need for international treaties to address issues of machine versus human oversight in warfare and decision-making. The AI revolution is already underway, and governments are acutely aware of its implications. As with any major technological advancement, the world’s leading militaries recognize that it is only a matter of time before they must integrate AI to keep pace with or stay ahead of potential adversaries.

6/24 International News Story

The People’s Republic of China’s leading Communist Party has placed a significant focus on expanding their international education network. This has been characterized by recent plans to open Chinese-oriented schools that teach in their language and follow a Chinese-modeled curriculum recommended by the CCP.  

The Chinese School Dubai, serving about 500 pupils, predominantly children of Chinese expatriates in the UAE, follows a curriculum similar to that in China. Since its opening in 2020, the school has more than doubled in size, marking it as a pilot project for the Chinese Communist Party’s plan to establish international schools in major cities worldwide.

Despite the presence of American, British, and French schools in many capitals, schools offering the Chinese curriculum are scarce. This shortage discourages Chinese nationals from working for Chinese companies abroad due to concerns about their children’s educational continuity. The Chinese government aims to address this gap by creating international schools that not only cater to expatriate children but also attract other international students, thereby projecting Chinese soft power.

Overcapacity in China’s domestic education sector has prompted private companies to invest in international schools, particularly in Asia. These schools offer education tailored to local demands, but future expansions are likely to include Chinese-language instruction and curriculums, especially with state encouragement. This development introduces competition for existing international schools, many of which already enroll Chinese pupils.

However, the expansion of Chinese-curriculum schools raises concerns about the dissemination of Chinese state propaganda. The Dubai school has toned down some patriotic education to suit local sensibilities, but new schools might struggle with balancing local expectations and directives from Beijing, potentially leading to conflicts.

Opinion:

Establishing schools abroad that follow the Chinese curriculum, lands within the doctrine of an overarching strategy of increasing soft power across the globe. China can utilize international education and utilize the high numbers of young Chinese intellectuals abroad to enhance their state’s  cultural and ideological influence. These schools can serve as platforms for promoting Chinese values, language, and perspectives, thereby extending China’s soft power globally.

Providing education that aligns with the Chinese system can make expatriation more attractive for Chinese nationals, supporting the global expansion of Chinese businesses and government initiatives. This follows goals of Chinese unity, especially in other Western countries, leading to stronger and more cohesive Chinese communities abroad– fostering deeper loyalty and connections to their homeland.

The investment potential for expanding Chinese businesses and private companies to a more prominent global level also drives this initiative. The creation of an international Chinese curriculum could make Chinese education more appealing to non-Chinese students, positioning China as a major player in global education.

China is playing the long game and making sure they lay the foundation to a steady buildup of global prominence and with hegemonic hopes for this century.