07/03 – International News Story

Ahead of France’s second round of planned snap national elections on July 7, the far-right National Rally party has taken the lead. [AP News]

Following losses by President Macron’s centrist Renaissance party in the June 9th European Parliament elections, Macron called for two rounds of snap legislative elections scheduled for June 30th and July 7th. 

The vote was originally scheduled for 2027 alongside the next presidential elections.

The decision came in response to calls by the National Rally’s leader Jordan Bardella and others for early parliamentary elections. Macron responded in a televised address to French voters on June 9: “I have heard your message,” adding, “I am giving you the choice of your legislative future by voting.”

France’s right wing has gained popularity in recent years with the far-right National Rally party formerly led by Marie Le Pen leading opinion polls. 

The party has taken strong stances on immigration with its new leader as of 2022, Jordan Bardella making promises to cut taxes on fuel and electricity and tackle immigration and security among other pledges. [NPR]

Macron’s centrist Renaissance party has taken third in polls behind National Rally and the leftist coalition the New Popular Front. 

Following the July 7 vote, Macron will seek to name a new prime minister to lead the majority in parliament. The National Rally has already designated Bardella as its choice for prime minister. 

If National Rally wins the next round of snap elections it will be the first time since World War II that a far-right party has taken national office, forming a cohabitation with president and prime minister from opposing parties. [Bloomberg]

Opinion:

The decision for Macron to call for early parliamentary elections comes as somewhat of a surprise, given that the elections were set for 2027, the same year as the next round of presidential elections. However, Macron’s approval ratings have fallen significantly in recent years to 28%.

Following Macron’s reelection for his second term in 2022, the French president lost his majority in parliament, leading to a perception of him as a tyrant with a bad reputation as he has consistently utilized presidential decrees to carry out desired laws. In a likely attempt to regain public favor, he has called for snap elections to demonstrate a responsiveness to voter opinion and display himself as a man of the people. 

Many consider it to be quite the gamble for Macron, as he aims to curb these far right gains upon these early showing and not leave their power to brew. Many believe that this could very well backfire as the right wing National Rally party dominates the polls and shoots for a parliamentary majority. 

If the National Rally wins, it would create a cohabitation government with Macron, which could lead to negative outcomes for the French people. They might then blame the new party, the National Rally, and potentially shift their support to left or centrist parties in the next elections.

Either way the decision to call snap elections plunges the political state of France and its voters into deeply uncertain times where no one can be certain on exactly what will follow. 

– P.T.

6/25 – International News Story

The U.S. military’s long-standing technological edge is under serious threat as China ramps up its defense spending. Over the last 25 years, China has heavily invested in its military, aiming for “complete national defense and military modernization by 2035” and transforming the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a “world-class military by mid-century.” This growing power poses a significant challenge to the U.S.-led international order and the security of its allies and partners.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to become a crucial factor in determining military dominance in the near future. AI technology offers advanced capabilities like sophisticated data analysis, better integration between sensors and shooters, and faster decision-making. The U.S. military must rapidly adopt AI to maintain its technological superiority, deter potential aggressors, and succeed in future conflicts.

The AI revolution in military technology is a key element in the broader U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry, with high stakes and unpredictable outcomes. The PLA’s increasing strength has led to more aggressive behavior, including over 180 documented instances of dangerous air intercepts against U.S. allies and contentious territorial claims in the South China Sea.

In response, the U.S. Department of Defense is prioritizing AI adoption, tapping into American private sector innovation to counter the PLA’s advancements. Successful AI development will revolutionize military systems and processes, boosting efficiency, situational awareness, operational precision, and decision-making speed.

As the military AI revolution unfolds, it’s crucial for personnel at all levels to prepare for the coming changes. Embracing new technologies and proactively adapting will be essential for the U.S. military to stay ahead in an increasingly competitive global arena.

Opinion: 

We could be on the brink of experiencing a new arms race, reminiscent of the 20th-century proliferation era. Just as nuclear proliferation was driven by the geopolitical necessity to maintain power and influence among great powers, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into the military might become the new catalyst for a similar competition, mirroring the Cold War dynamics.

The intense and threatening rivalry between the U.S. and the Soviet Union led both nations to amass large nuclear arsenals, significantly enhancing their military capabilities and showcasing their technological prowess through endeavors like the space race. Today, we stand on the edge of a new race for technological dominance in the uncharted frontier of AI.

China views the United States as a declining power and aims to claim the top spot through technological advancement rather than direct warfare. The U.S. government and military are likely aware of these ambitions and are already planning increased investments in military AI initiatives.

If the U.S. successfully integrates AI into its military, it could maintain its position as the world’s leading military power. This would involve widespread adoption of AI across all branches, resulting in significant improvements in operational efficiency, decision-making speed, and overall combat effectiveness.

However, the integration of AI into military forces could trigger a global arms race, with countries like Iran, Russia, India, and others rapidly developing their own AI military technologies. Similar to the “nuclear club” era, this competition could lead to the proliferation of advanced AI-driven weapons, increasing the risk of conflicts and making warfare more unpredictable and potentially devastating. The geopolitical landscape might become increasingly volatile as nations strive to outpace each other in military AI advancements.

This situation raises ethical concerns and highlights the need for international treaties to address issues of machine versus human oversight in warfare and decision-making. The AI revolution is already underway, and governments are acutely aware of its implications. As with any major technological advancement, the world’s leading militaries recognize that it is only a matter of time before they must integrate AI to keep pace with or stay ahead of potential adversaries.

6/24 International News Story

The People’s Republic of China’s leading Communist Party has placed a significant focus on expanding their international education network. This has been characterized by recent plans to open Chinese-oriented schools that teach in their language and follow a Chinese-modeled curriculum recommended by the CCP.  

The Chinese School Dubai, serving about 500 pupils, predominantly children of Chinese expatriates in the UAE, follows a curriculum similar to that in China. Since its opening in 2020, the school has more than doubled in size, marking it as a pilot project for the Chinese Communist Party’s plan to establish international schools in major cities worldwide.

Despite the presence of American, British, and French schools in many capitals, schools offering the Chinese curriculum are scarce. This shortage discourages Chinese nationals from working for Chinese companies abroad due to concerns about their children’s educational continuity. The Chinese government aims to address this gap by creating international schools that not only cater to expatriate children but also attract other international students, thereby projecting Chinese soft power.

Overcapacity in China’s domestic education sector has prompted private companies to invest in international schools, particularly in Asia. These schools offer education tailored to local demands, but future expansions are likely to include Chinese-language instruction and curriculums, especially with state encouragement. This development introduces competition for existing international schools, many of which already enroll Chinese pupils.

However, the expansion of Chinese-curriculum schools raises concerns about the dissemination of Chinese state propaganda. The Dubai school has toned down some patriotic education to suit local sensibilities, but new schools might struggle with balancing local expectations and directives from Beijing, potentially leading to conflicts.

Opinion:

Establishing schools abroad that follow the Chinese curriculum, lands within the doctrine of an overarching strategy of increasing soft power across the globe. China can utilize international education and utilize the high numbers of young Chinese intellectuals abroad to enhance their state’s  cultural and ideological influence. These schools can serve as platforms for promoting Chinese values, language, and perspectives, thereby extending China’s soft power globally.

Providing education that aligns with the Chinese system can make expatriation more attractive for Chinese nationals, supporting the global expansion of Chinese businesses and government initiatives. This follows goals of Chinese unity, especially in other Western countries, leading to stronger and more cohesive Chinese communities abroad– fostering deeper loyalty and connections to their homeland.

The investment potential for expanding Chinese businesses and private companies to a more prominent global level also drives this initiative. The creation of an international Chinese curriculum could make Chinese education more appealing to non-Chinese students, positioning China as a major player in global education.

China is playing the long game and making sure they lay the foundation to a steady buildup of global prominence and with hegemonic hopes for this century.

6/23 International News

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently announced that the IDF’s offensive in the Palestinian border town of Rafah will soon wind down, following a prolonged bombing campaign since early May.

Instead, Israel now plans to deploy more troops to its northern border to confront Hezbollah. Fighting between IDF soldiers and Hezbollah militants has been ongoing since the October 7 Hamas attack, but tensions have escalated significantly in recent weeks, currently on an accelerated path to full-scale war.

The redeployment of troops from Gaza to the northern border, along with recent rhetoric from Israeli leadership, suggests the potential for a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah. This could involve an Israeli military offensive throughout Lebanon, risking a broader regional conflict. Reports indicate that the Israeli military has already drafted and approved plans for such an offensive.

A war with Hezbollah could draw in other Iranian proxy groups and possibly Iran itself, further complicating the situation. Hezbollah, much larger and better equipped than Hamas, poses a significant threat with its advanced weaponry, intelligence, and training.

There is a serious possibility that Iran would intervene to protect its most vital proxy group, Hezbollah, should Israel initiate a conflict in Lebanon. This scenario could quickly escalate if Israel acts aggressively, leading to widespread regional instability.

Opinion:

Launching a direct military offensive against Hezbollah would be costly and challenging for Israel, inviting increased instability and conflict in the Middle East. A war with Hezbollah would likely attract greater Iranian involvement and support, raising the risk of escalated sabotage against Israel and further heightening tensions.

Israel’s national security mindset has intensified since the October 7 attack, with its leadership asserting that the country is prepared to fight on multiple fronts if deemed necessary to eliminate existential threats. If this hawkish stance continues, the conflict may soon extend beyond Gaza and Hamas.

The international community has been closely watching since October, with major powers attempting to broker ceasefires or diplomatic resolutions. However, the deep-rooted ethnic divisions and nature of the adversaries make such outcomes unlikely.

The United States recognizes that an escalated war involving Hezbollah and possibly Iran endangers American troops stationed in the region. Any harm to American soldiers would necessitate a military response, potentially drawing the U.S. into another Middle Eastern conflict.

Currently, the American government is working frantically to deescalate tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, warning Netanyahu and his war cabinet of the severe risks associated with a Lebanese offensive. Given the current state of domestic politics and other global concerns like the war in Ukraine, the prospect of engaging in a conflict with Iran or its most powerful proxy is highly undesirable for the U.S.

6/20 International News Story

Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe has managed to rebound from the discontinuation of Russian gas supplies. However, Russia’s gas sector has not fared as well.

In response to European sanctions, Russia halted most gas deliveries to the EU, causing a temporary spike in prices. Europe adapted by turning to alternative suppliers, now mainly importing from the United States.

Before the invasion, the EU received over 40% of its gas imports from Russia. Last year, that figure dropped to about 8%. Currently, the EU sources over half its gas from the United States and Norway, with a significant portion also coming from North Africa. European fuel tanks are full, prices have stabilized, and there is no fear of blackouts.

In contrast, Russia’s situation is dire. Initially, they managed to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions by increasing dealings with China. However, ongoing isolation from a significant portion of the global financial system is taking a heavy toll on their gas sector, which is now significantly below pre-invasion levels. Efforts to redirect gas exports away from Europe are faltering due to a lack of infrastructure and pipelines to other regions. One of their few remaining strategies is to shift their gas exports almost entirely towards Asia.

Opinion: 

Russia is in a tough financial position with limited options. The ongoing war in Ukraine requires substantial funding, and turning towards Asia, particularly China, seems to be their main viable strategy. This would necessitate advancing talks with Xi Jinping about increasing supply through their Siberia pipelines. For Russia to recover the losses incurred over the past few years, this would need to happen quickly, alongside increased infrastructure funding for additional pipelines to China. Something they are also lacking. 

The problem for Putin is that he is backed into a corner when it comes to negotiation. 

China will demand low tariffs and discounted prices due to the value their consumership holds at this point in time. China’s gas sources are diverse and they can turn to many states for imports, they will leverage this and strike a hard bargain on Russia. 

Additionally, China’s significant investments and state focus on solar energy casts doubt on their willingness to purchase the capacity of natural gas Russia is trying to offload.

Historically, Being a gas export powerhouse and the main European provider was a point of Russian political strength and leverage on the continent. This advantage has now been exhausted and is unlikely to be regained in the foreseeable future. Their economic dependency on China becomes increasingly obvious, making Russia more exploitable in the future. 

As the world begins turning toward more renewable energy, and the costly war in Ukraine drags on; Russia’s economy appears to be on the brink of significant decline throughout the remainder of this decade.

6/18 International News

Putin just visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years and was all smiles with Kim Jong Un.

The two leaders signed a bold new agreement, which entails a requirement that if either country finds itself in a state of war,the other must provide immediate military assistance by any available means.

The summit between the two dictators has resulted in the new strongest point of bilateral relations between the two countries in decades. 

It is also very likely that Putin cozied up to Kim in order to receive more military weapons and ballistic missiles to aid his current war in Ukraine. Russia is using up their munitions fast and North Korea has a lot.  

Putin says he is fighting an ongoing war against the U.S. and its “imperialist hegemonic policy”

Fresh off this visit to North Korea, Putin just recently arrived in Vietnam for a visit highly condemned by the U.S. in order to prompt his ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Are the world’s leaders shaping up for a new Cold War? … The foreign policy developments of late might indicate this ever-increasing reality. 

Opinion: 

For Kim Jong Un, holding this summit is good for him as hosting a major world leader and signing a new military alliance with Russia decreases their diplomatic isolation from the international system. This increases his credibility within his own state, as well as breaking from their identity as a rogue state. This also comes amidst a time of increased tensions with South Korea as the two states go head to head with psychological warfare by means of sending air balloons full of poop to the South, and blaring anti-North Korean propaganda thorugh loudspeaker towards the North. 

Although sending shock signals throughout the West, this move is not unlike Putin. He has a track record of successfully stroking the egos of narcissistic leaders, as we saw with Trump, and otherwise gets on with most of the world’s dictatorial figures. Putin is a modern case of realpolitik, so a move like this where he creates a military alliance with one of the only other non-western nuclear powers makes sense in response to Western discourse surrounding deploying NATO troops to Ukraine. Putin is all in on conveying believability to NATO. He’s making his rounds to any states that he can get on his side and prove to NATO that if they keep pushing on this Ukraine issue, he is willing and ready to make it global war. Russia does not realistically have the capacity to fight NATO but Putin does have the diplomatic ability to demonstrate his resolve and truly test the West’s willingness to test global war over Ukraine.

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